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Winx is simply a sensation – far too good for any of her opposition and barring disaster, she’s well on her way to being one of Australia’s best horses.
The win on the weekend was quite the test. The heavy track had plenty of her fans and short-priced favourite punters genuinely fearful.
As it was, she again did it easily against her rivals and looking back, the win doesn’t appear too notable.
But for those watching, it was almost heart-in-mouth stuff due to the unknowns of the deep bog that was the state of Randwick’s surface. Given the margin of victory (two lengths) and the relative margin of Who Shot Thebarman back in third (three lengths), it’s clearly not her preferred surface. But she managed it.
So her run of 15 wins on the trot is starting to edge towards Black Caviar’s 25 wins in a row.
But it’s not about her consecutive win record now, she’s racing for her legacy.
Black Caviar stands alone as our greatest ever sprinter. But she’s not considered in the top five of all time, simply because her unique, brilliant gifts didn’t lend themselves to our great races over much further distances. No knock – just the reality of it.
Winx is at least closing in on Black Caviar’s greatness, and has even surpassed the great sprinter in the eyes of some. The Chris Waller-trained mare is simply more versatile, and if she can go on she certainly will surpass Black Caviar.
But Winx might just be able to reach the highest of high echelons if given the chance – a chance to be a top five or top three Australian horse of all time.
While she doesn’t have an unbeaten record to protect, the problem with her winning streak is that connections won’t want to see it interrupted. But if they truly believe she’s one of the best ever, they must give her a crack at joining the true legends club, featuring names like Phar Lap, Carbine, Tulloch, and Kingston Town.
Winx has won between 1100m and 2200m, including those two magnificent Cox Plate wins. Her other eight Group 1s include the Doncaster Mile, Espom Handicap, the Chipping Norton twice, and the Queensland Oaks. She needs more.
A third Cox Plate, and a fourth
To win three Cox Plates would elevate Winx to only the second horse to have achieved this feat, joining Kingston Town. Sunline won it twice, as did Northerly before her, and the likes of Phar Lap, Tranquil Star, Beauvite, and more recently So You Think.
To win four would re-write the history books. It’s a tough ask – she’d need to hold this outrageous form for another 20 months. And if she did, the competition she might face would probably have thinned dramatically.
Win overseas
This is more important than ever in the modern era. Winning away from home and taking it to the opposition on their turf is a huge ask that commands respect. While we’re more likely to measure her against Australian champions in the decades to come, for the sport and to show how good she is, it’s a big one.
If she could dominate like she does here for one or two races at Royal Ascot against class opponents, or even in somewhere like Japan or Hong Kong, it’d put a big tick in her book.
Makybe Diva gave Japan a go, finishing seventh in two races in 2005, including the Group 1 Tenno Sho (3200m).
Win over further distance
How fantastic would it be for Winx to attempt to win over 2400m, giving her a chance at adding the Group 1 BMW (2400m) or even the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)?
They are major Group 1s to have on her resume and if she can win over 2400m, perhaps even an Arc might appeal. That would be something.
Melbourne Cup
This one is out there, but if she can continue to win over distance, should we dare to dream of a Melbourne Cup attempt over the gruelling 3200m? To win the big one would do amazing things for her legacy, and standing within the wider public.
In generations past, true champions took on every race and while racing has changed, it’d be amazing to see her on the first Tuesday of November.
The issue is she’d cop a big handicap, huge even, as the third best horse in the world. It’s hard to know exactly how much weight she’d be given by the handicapper – as much as Makybe Diva’s third attempt (58kgs), or in excess of that to 60kgs and beyond? She’s probably missed her chance when she would’ve beaten the handicapper as a four-year-old.
Is there any reason she can’t?
The biggest knock on Winx is that her three-year-old season just wasn’t as good as our all-time champions, winning four out her ten races and placing three times.
She didn’t win at Group 1 level in Sydney races, making up for that by heading to Queensland for their Winter Carnival and winning the Group 1 Queensland Oaks.
Phar Lap, for example, won 13 out of 20 of his three-year-old races, including nine straight, and placed in three others including a third in the Melbourne Cup, after winning the VRC Derby three days early. Truly a marvel.
Carbine won nine of 13 starts as a three-year-old, including a win in the AJC Sydney Cup (3200m) carrying 5.5kg over weight-for-age. He won 17 of 18 races following this.
Kingston Town won 12 from his 15 three-year-old starts, only missing down in Melbourne, his worst result a fourth in the Caulfield Cup.
What’s next for Winx
Having decided to skip the Australian Cup as expected, her next race will at Rosehill on March 18, for the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m). She should then take on the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, three weeks after on April 8.