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Nathan Lyon looked tame in the third Test without the footmarks created by injured left-arm quick Mitchell Starc. Now Australia must decide whether they would be better off picking a different bowler for the decider.
Such a decision will be heavily influenced by how the Australians read the pitch at Dharamsala, which has shaped as the venue which would most favour fast bowlers thanks to its high altitude and cool climate.
Sitting more than 1300m above sea level, in the foothills of the Himalayas, the Himachal Pradesh Cricket Stadium will be easily the coldest of the venues in this series, with maximum temperatures forecast of between 22 and 26 degrees Celsius.
Such conditions would lead one to assume the pitch for the fourth Test will not be as dry as those for the first three, each of which were played in cities which were significantly hotter and lower in altitude.
Then again, it’s been incredibly difficult to predict how the last two pitches would play.
The second Test at Bangalore was tipped to brim with runs but turned out to be a nightmare for batsmen. Then the Ranchi deck initially looked like something ripped from a spinner’s wet dreams, only to be utterly placid.
If Australia were going to play three frontline quicks at any point in this series, it always looked by far the most likely to occur at Dharamsala.
Lyon’s toothless effort at Ranchi will have given the selectors further reason to consider such a line-up.
The veteran off-spinner bowled wonderfully in the first three innings of this series, snaring 13 wickets at an average of 10, including an extraordinary haul of 8-50 in the first dig at Bangalore. Since then however, Lyon has been completely blanketed by the Indian batsmen, taking 1-245 from 79 overs.
He was especially impotent in the third Test because he could no longer earn sharp spin and bounce out of the footmarks created by Starc. With no left-arm quicks to be involved in the fourth Test, Lyon again will again be without rough to aim at.
India’s entirely right-handed top eight looked utterly at ease against Lyon in Ranchi. The absence of Starc also dulled the influence of star Indian off spinner Ravi Ashwin, who too found minimal turn or bounce.
It was no coincidence that by far the most successful spinner in that Test was Ravi Jadeja, the only one who had rough he could aim at. Jadeja grabbed nine wickets at Ranchi, compared to only six combined for Lyon, O’Keefe and Ashwin.
If Australia do consider dropping Lyon they have a pace option in lanky swing bowler Jackson Bird, and two spin alternatives in left armer Ashton Agar and leg-spinner Mitchell Swepson. Neither of those young tweakers looks particularly appealing: Agar because he is too similar to O’Keefe, and Swepson because it would be a risk to blood such a green player in a Test of this magnitude.
If the Dharamsala pitch does look like offering significantly more assistance to the quicks, then Bird would shape as the best and also safest option. Unlike the inexperienced Agar and Swepson, Bird is relatively proven, owning a very good record of 34 wickets at an average of 27 from eight Tests.
Bird is, however, yet to play a Test in Asia. There’s also the downside that he is similar in style to Josh Hazlewood, so Australia could lack variety if the Dharamsala pitch turns out to be flat. I don’t think it will be a sleepy deck though, because India must win the fourth Test to regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy so they surely will be asking for a lively pitch to ensure a result.
Were Australia to play Bird in place of Lyon they still would have a decent off-spin option in all-rounder Glenn Maxwell, who has a good Test record in India, with seven wickets at 29 from his three Tests. Of course, the problem is that captain Steve Smith for some strange reason is averse to bowling Maxwell in any format of cricket.
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Lyon is not the only Australian player whose position deserves to be under threat at Dharamsala.
Opener David Warner has had an awful series, continuing his woeful form away from home, and gloveman Matthew Wade is lucky there is not a second specialist wicketkeeper in the squad.
Warner has now averaged just 22 across his past three away series (in India, Sri Lanka and New Zealand). The only thing which seems likely to save his place is the apparent lack of confidence the selectors have in backup batsman Usman Khawaja’s ability to play spin on the subcontinent.
First Khawaja was overlooked in favour of Shaun Marsh and Mitch Marsh, then when the younger Marsh was injured Australia ignored the left-hander and instead picked Maxwell.
Warner actually deserves to be dropped more than does Lyon. But I would bet the off spinner is more vulnerable ahead of the fourth Test, with Bird a strong chance of a call up.