At this stage of the AFL season, it’s impossible to predict exactly when certain events will happen and what their ramifications will be.
I can’t predict when the assumed ‘Dangerwood’ injury will happen and Geelong start to fall away (and why is everyone so convinced this will happen? What if it is just Scott Selwood that gets injured?).
I can’t predict when the new collective bargaining agreement will be signed, and how many minutes afterwards it will be until Hawthorn and Sydney have announced they’ve signed Dustin Martin and Nate Fyfe, respectively.
I can’t predict when the AFL will decide that North Melbourne are tanking and what form their punishment will take.
But ignoring what I don’t know, I had a crack at predicting the ladder order for this season. But before I did my prediction, I made up a table on what I ‘feel’ should be the outcome.
1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Sydney
3. Adelaide
4. Western Bulldogs
5. West Coast
6. Geelong
7. Melbourne
8. Hawthorn
9. St Kilda
10. Gold Coast
11. Essendon
12. North Melbourne
13. Collingwood
14. Fremantle
15. Brisbane
16. Port Adelaide
17. Richmond
18. GWS B
Not too dissimilar to what most are saying – despite, as fellow Roarer Gordon Smith pointed out, the fact this is historically unlikely to happen.
It is more likely that there will more two new teams in the top eight.
I ‘feel’ Brisbane are better than the wooden spoon – mostly because for the first time is the early 2000s they have recruited well for two years in a row (and, thanks to Port’s stupidity, it will be three), whereas their competition for the bottom-end of the table haven’t.
Melbourne and the Saints are a toss up to come into the eight and Gold Coast and, to a lesser extent, Essendon aren’t too far behind them.
The Bulldogs will have better luck with injuries but they aren’t a better side than GWS or Sydney, particularly now it looks like they will have to rely on Tom English in the ruck more than they would have liked.
This is what my ladder look liked after I predicted each winner, each round:
Now, some obvious things that jump out: I am Brisbane fan and am eternally optimistic about their chances, so have doubled their wins from last year. This is partly based on admittedly over-elevating their preseason form and new coaching structure, and their better recruiting than the teams around them. My first run actually gave them nine wins, but that was ridiculous.
The other most obvious aspect is that I may have over emphasised the strength of home advantage, which is why Adelaide and West Coast have done so well.
Adelaide aren’t the best or even second-best side in the comp, but their home games are against GWS (which I gave as a loss), Essendon, Richmond, Melbourne, Fremantle, Saint Kilda, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Geelong, Port and Sydney. The Sydney and Bulldogs are only games which might go the other way, but I’ve given them to Adelaide because of home strength.
Likewise with West Coast, who aren’t the fourth or even fifth-best, but their home games are St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, Bulldogs, GWS, Geelong, Melbourne, Port, Brisbane, Carlton and Adelaide. Only the Bulldogs and possibly GWS are a chance at winning at Domain.
Again with Port, they’re an in-between who didn’t recruit well and potentially gave away the farm for 2018, but they will dominate at home and thus finish higher up the ladder.
Then there is the ‘visual’ aspect of the table. It just doesn’t look right.
Essendon, Fremantle and Gold Coast should be closer to Hawthorn, Melbourne and Saint Kilda, but I can’t find the wins for them. Port and Brisbane are also too close to that pack.
I have given Gold Coast the win in China over Port, as David Koch keeps providing them with more and more motivation to win that game.
At the bottom of the table, Carlton and Richmond are going to struggle, and their wins reflect that (although two wins each does seem light on). But despite their best efforts, North won’t do as badly as third last.
Josh Elliott points out that their draw is kinder this year, but they still have to play Fremantle, Port, Gold Coast and Brisbane interstate. They also have an away game in Tasmania against Hawthorn to go with their three home games in Tasmania.
Of their away games, the only one I’ve got for a win is against Carlton at Etihad. Being super optimistic, I’ve got the Lions beating them at the Gabba for the last game of the season.
The one thing I have learnt is that at least as important as an easier or harder fixture list is where those games are played – at least for the interstate teams.
Brisbane and Gold Coast only play four top-eight teams at home, so they are in with a legitimate chance – at this optimistic stage of the season – of getting up. In the Gold Coast’s case, their last hard home game is Round 11.
Fremantle and West Coast play each other twice at Domain, but then Fremantle only has three other top-eight games at home. Hawthorn’s slide down the table may be halted at least in part because of their four Tasmania games only one is against a top eight side, GWS. The Giants in turn only have five hard home games.
But the winner has to be Sydney – only three top eight sides go the SCG: GWS, Hawthorn, and the Bulldogs (plus St Kilda).
Ultimately this is as just as much speculation as anyone else’s prediction, as I used a (possibly flawed) system to get a result.
Others have looked at things like squad strengths, power ratings, and some I’m sure just looked at word clouds to make up their predictions.
In the end, we’re all just doing this because we can’t wait for that first bounce on Thursday night.
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