Since their Round 2 loss to the Tigers, the Magpies poor kicking skills have been blamed for their defeat.
“Richmond revenge over poor-kicking Pies” was the headline on AFL.com.au, while Jon Perik in The Age wrote “poor goal kicking to blame for a 19-point loss to Richmond”.
To improve his club’s on-field fortunes Nathan Buckley must ignore these conclusions and instead address the true root cause of his team’s performance issues. If he doesn’t Buckley will be making the same mistake that Chairman Mao committed in China in 1958.
Mao under the incorrect belief that the sparrow population was to blame for poor farming production, ordered one billion people be put to work killing sparrows for a day. After his orders were successfully carried out, the insect population, with no natural predator, increased dramatically and these insects went on to decimate the country’s farming crop eventually leading to a widespread famine in China.
Yes, missed shots at goal didn’t help their cause, but the Magpies poor skills are the sparrow in this Collingwood problem.
Since the start of the 2012 season, when Buckley took over as Collingwood coach, the Magpies have contested 17 games where they were playing after a six-day break or less between games and, were coming up against an opponent who had a seven day break or more between fixtures. Their clash with the Tigers was one of these games.
In these 17 games the Pies have only posted six victories at a win rate of just 35 per cent. In all other games since Buckley took over, the Pies have recorded 55 wins from 99 matches at a much higher win rate of 56 per cent. That is a huge variance in performance and an indicator of clear problem in player recovery and preparation for the club.
A quick scan of betting markets also demonstrates that this is not some quirk of the draw where the Magpies just happen to have played tougher opponents in these matches. Three of their losses in this games came when the Magpies started as a heavy favourite at a price of $1.20 or less and only one loss occurred when they were considered a significant outsider at a quote greater than $2.50.
Yet the Pies are not alone in regards to this issue, all up fifteen of the eighteen sides perform worse after a six day break when playing an opponent off a seven day break than they do in all other matches.
So what can be learned from looking at the clubs who don’t seem to suffer from this same drop off in performance? Three of the clubs, that have only a slight drop off in performance or actually improve, are sides with a very low winning percentage across this period (St Kilda, Melbourne and the Gold Coast) and the increase or negligible variance in performance can be put down to the relative low base from which to compare.
The two best performing sides, in this category, are West Coast and Sydney. Prior to this season their win variances increased by 6.5 per cent and 6.1 per cent respectively off the lessor break.
Without being inside that environment it is impossible to know the reasons as to why but it is clear that the Eagles and Swans have a distinct advantage in the area of recovery and preparation.
What would seem most probable is that after years of having to adjust to fortnightly cycle of flying interstate to play matches, their fitness staff are better at preparing their list for disruptions from a routine schedule.
Or it could be that the players themselves have naturally leant to be more adaptable to change and are subsequently more flexible in their approach to match day preparation than players at other clubs.
This is not to say this is a trait shared by all non-Victorian clubs. The Dockers and Crows, two sides that have enjoyed solid success over the period, suffer from a large drop off in win percentage, at 28.4 per cent and 9.7 per cent decrease respectively, when disadvantaged by a smaller rest between matches.
So if Nathan Buckley is a smart coach, and we expect he is, he should ignore the flood of media reporting and talk back calls that have focused on the Pies kicking skills. Instead his first stop on Monday morning should be to the office of high the performance manager and conditioning team, as the true problem at Collingwood’s lies here.
Buckley must demand to know why his team continues to falter in this situation when the players of at least some rival clubs do not. Answers to these questions must come quickly, as, with a further four regular season games that fall into this category this season, Buckley’s future may depend on the ability of the Pies to solve this problem.
Tricky
Guest
Meaning we need a coach who has gravitation - that meaning people gravitate toward him - Like Bevo
Tricky
Guest
This post! Nathan wants the team to play a certain way rather than harness an individuals strengths for the betterment of the team. He is a David King for want of a better expression, his knowledge is unquestionable but we need a coach like Clarko or Beveridge who interestingly enough is a protege of one Mick Malthouse
Leonard
Guest
And not even a 60,000 crowd!!! Not even in the TOP 30 crowds!!! Bloody stupid rostering. Just moronic. (But the Thursday before Good Friday is OK with a public holiday following.) Effin' "experiments"!!!! Just grow a brain, AFL HQ!! (No sorries for all the '!!!!s', or for the slaggin' off.)
Milo
Roar Rookie
Yes, Socrates, himself, is particularly missed... A lovely little thinker but a bugger when he's pissed.
Julian Noel
Guest
Brilliant point. No understanding how to build a team, or deal with difference. Hopeless. Truly hopeless what is happening at the Pies. No relief in sight. Clueless.
Julian Noel
Guest
Bilbo, nice points. I think there's a whole other area to consider. MM built a 'team', to quote Aristotle, Aristotle a buggar for the bottle, who said, "The whole is greater than the sum of its parts". MM knew how to create a winning TEAM the players mentioned won a premiership, and into a Grand final the year after. From this perspective it makes no difference what they did elsewhere, they were no longer part of a whole and balanced team. Remember 2011 was Collingwood's most successful ever season! The notion that you need a team of stars is terribly passe. We tried that back in the day when we bought ourselves a team of stars... Geoff Raines, David Cloke, BT and others thinking we could 'buy' a premiership. It didn't go too well. Have you ever read 'Moneyball", a brilliant book on what a winning team is really built on... tip... it aint a team of stars.
Pat
Guest
Shaw, Thomas, Lumumba, Beams, Seedsman, Kennedy, Freeman, Brown, Frost, Marsh, Williams, Witts, Cloke. All jumped or pushed in the past few years and all at other clubs now. Thats just too many. They may not all be champs, but it's just not possible to replace such a large number of departures with quality players, especially when we get very little for them at the trade table. The issue is this huge list turnover. There is a clear, obvious trend of not supporting and developing our own, instead we just discard them. This has led to ongoing instability, lack of trust and as a result low morale and poor performances. I've heard and read countless discussions on the players who have left and whether or not they've gone on to continue playing good footy - that's not really relevant so much as the root cause of this list management approach. The question is why so many? It's clear that the coaches and admin at the club don't have any idea how to run a succesfull team. It's also clear that discarding players who you can't relate to hasn't worked.
Jack Dyer
Roar Rookie
Wabi, Probably a couple of ways to look at this: (1) Specific to Collingwood the 17 matches in this category represent about 13% of games played in the Buckley area. I am happy to stand by a call of a downward performance trend based on 13% data set especially given the size of the downward trend in performance. And the nature of some of their losses (i.e they were heavy favourites going to a few of these matches, they were never huge underdogs, only 3 were played interstate) (2) In regards to the 5 seasons of data across the whole league and what inferences we can draw, I would say prior to 1997 the draw was much more stable, no Thursday night games, no Monday night games, greater majority of games on a Saturday, so the prevalence of 6 day breaks wasn't as great. Thus the period where a lot more 6 day breaks have occurred has been the last 20 years, by looking at 5 years we have looked at 25% of the data. Again happy to draw conclusions from a 25% data set.
Bilbo
Guest
We are so a cash cow Why a Thursday night game in round 2 with no public holiday around, of course Collingwood had to be involved to ensure viewing numbers Any thought for the kids who might have wanted to attend? I'm not a fan of taking the kids to night games, this limits what games I go to. As a pies fan, we seem to play our first month on Friday nights and it can be frustrating.
Julian Noel
Guest
I am not a stats man, but 5 seasons = 5 pre-season trainings, 50 months of training, approximately 130 games (including pre-season comp and intra club matches), seems a reasonable pool to draw conclusions from, I would think? Happy to be schooled otherwise.
Bilbo
Guest
I can't say our old players moved on to become stars Dawes went to Melbourne and had 10-15 decent games Dale Thomas can't run anymore, I'd rate his Carlton performances 5.5/10 Harry O'Brien was average at Melb Wellingham has had only one decent year at WCE Beams dropped off after the premiership and is only now looking half decent The only real loss has been Heath Shaw Cloke will be Cloke, ok 4 goals in 2 games, a few out of bounds and a few missed short passes, this is about what I would expect from him, but definitely not worth $700k a year
Wabi
Guest
By what standards is 5 a "significant" sample size?
Julian Noel
Guest
We are witnessing the birth of the 'maggies' we've lost our Big 'M'. The team coach needs to be training under 15's developing their skills, he is not equipped to train men. The 'Why' from my perspective is leadership. What goes on in the heart and mind of the leader plays out in the performance of the team regardless of whether it is sport, life, or business. In my model of leadership the leader takes 100% responsibility for the result of the team. It is ultimately their responsibility. In my view poor kicking is not skills related, it is confidence/mental related. These current players are not trained to back themselves. They do not take the game on, they're timid, unable to play with flair or confidence, which tells me the leader wants to dominate the individuals, and is not skilled enough to allow 'personal expression' and then to create alignment within the team amongst the diversity of skills, 'channelling' this into results. MM was a master of this, all the characters and individuals from that era have gone.... Heath Shaw, Harry O, Beamsie, Dids, Neon Leon, Jolly, were all players who on their day could take on a game, make a statement make their team mates walk taller, and if needs be tear an opposition apart. They played with a level of heart and commitment long gone missing. we play as junior magpies, hoping to please the coach. We have a great list, so much talent... we need a new coach who can harness, empower and focus this group into a team that fall in love with winning.... PREMIERSHIPS!
Tricky
Guest
Not saying what you state does not have an effect but to say it is the sole reason for the demise is folly. You say 56% win rate in all other games that aren't short breaks and 35% for 6 day breaks - sure not denying that. I say those win rates are poor and you can't just pin it on recovery , you need to look at the why. Your article comes across as recovery being the miracle answer and that only! Again that is only PART and we need to look at the why
Jack Dyer
Roar Rookie
I suppose I looked at the problem like a 5 year old me might have: 5 YEAR OLD ME: "Why did we lose the game Mum?" MUM "We lost because we couldn't kick straight son" 5 YEAR OLD ME: "Why can't we kick straight mum?" _________________________________________________________________________________________ As you correctly state MIlo it is at this point the conversation could go multiple ways: - _________________________________________________________________________________________ MUM: "Recruiting son we just can't get the right players in the door" MUM: "Coaching son we just can't develop our players to teach them how to kick" MUM: "Player preperation son our players struggle off 6 day breaks and when they fatigue their skills drop off" _________________________________________________________________________________________ As the third response would seem to be a clear issue given historical performance and response 1 & 2 are harder to quantify I focused on this option.
Julian Noel
Guest
It will probably go unnoticed by them. They are both asleep at the wheel, adrift in an ocean of self-delusion.
Gecko
Guest
AlfBoldPredictions really should have included the Black Plague in that mix. The first response to the black plague in Europe was to kill cats! But thanks Alf for the thought-provoking article, backed by stats.
Alicesprings
Guest
Excellent point. I think it will be a few years before we see a recently retired club champion take the head coach position at the club they played for. Need a broader range of experiences. I can't see Collingwood winning a game until Round 7 against Carlton. The pressure on Bucks and Eddie is going to be immense.
Leonard
Guest
McGuexit? I like it when Eddie sticks to using his communication skills in the media, even if he does make the odd good point when he strays beyond his patch; as a CEO he proved to be a definite failure. (Now we've got one of those as PM, but minus the communication skills. Actually, make that minus the lot.) Good point about prospective head coaches getting work experience elsewhere - were Eddie and Bucks oblivious to the Voss example? Would Hird still have his job (and his reputation) had he done an apprenticeship, or did he see that as 'infra dig', a 'Don't you know who I am' attitude?
Milo
Roar Rookie
Thanks for an enjoyable article. Certainly an interesting stat about the 6 day breaks and if anything Id favour that over the poor kicking in the last game. There would no doubt be a few other factors in play as well, but if we take those two alone... Analyse the scoring and it was in the second quarter which saw the pies kick 3.6 to 3.1. Sure had they kicked a few of those then that puts some pressure on the tigers but from then on, it was 2.3 to 4.3 and finally 4.1 to 5.7 respectively. IF theyd kicked a few in the second and IF the tigers had kicked a few straighter in the last it would likely have been the same result. We can argue about that until the cows come home but 10 scoring shots to 19 after time shows the tigers had more of the run of the ball and were playing better footy towards the end. Could there be some fatigue there? Still reckon Bucks can coach but he wouldve done better (in hindsight a wonderful thing) getting some more experience elsewhere and then coming back not having to think this isnt my team. But ultimately if he goes McGuire must exit the building immediately thereafter.