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Crystal ball Blues for Carlton

Col from Brissie Roar Guru

By Col from Brissie, Col from Brissie is a Roar Guru New author!


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    In 2015 favourite son Stephen Silvagni returned to Carlton Football Club in the role of List Manager with the task of rebuilding what most pundits felt was one of the weakest playing lists in the AFL.

    The word rebuild was previously not in the Carlton vernacular so this was to be a new experience for Carlton supporters. In August 2015 the club appointed Brendon Bolton as the coach to oversee the development of the rebuilding list.

    A time-frame of four to five years was given as a period that supporters should expect to not only see Carlton return to finals action but also enjoy a sustained period of success. In the two years that Silvagni has been back at the Blues, 27 new players have been added to the playing list through the National Draft, Rookie Draft and traded players from other clubs.

    My belief is that 2019 will be the season that we start to see the Blues rise up the ladder to be either in the top eight or knocking on the door. So looking at the current list I have selected a side that we might see in Round 1 of the 2019 season.

    I have indicated the age of the player and what their possible game total could be at that time. For the players yet to debut I have allocated a possible 25 games by 2019.

    Plowman 24 (83) Marchbank 22 (51) Macreadie 20 (44)

    Byrne 24 (40) Weitering 21 (64) Docherty 25 (114)

    Fisher 20 (45) Cripps 24 (88) Williamson 20 (42)

    Petrevski-Seton 21 (44) McKay 21 (25) Silvagni 21 (52)

    Pickett 22 (44) Kerr 20 (25) LeBois 20 (25)

    Kreuzer 29 (184) Murphy 31 (258) Gibbs 30 (252)

    C. Curnow 22 (49) Phillips 27 (71) Polson 21 (25) E. Curnow 29 (153)

    Given that there will be two more years of National Draft selections where we would likely have two top ten picks and also further additions through the trade period there are possible unknown inclusions.

    I have included Bryce Gibbs but there is always the possibility of him being traded back to Adelaide at the end of this season. We could expect to get a first round selection for him.

    The average age of this team is 23.4 years with a likely average game experience around 81. So what do you think fellow Blue Baggers, would you be happy to see that team run out against the Tigers in Round 1 2019 or do you have alternative suggestions?

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    The Crowd Says (77)

    • April 18th 2017 @ 9:22am
      Ed said | April 18th 2017 @ 9:22am | ! Report

      Gibbs will gone at the end of this year. His performances have been average to poor in 2017 – meaning he will get his wish to defect to Crows without a fuss but Carlton will not get a first round pick in return.

      • April 18th 2017 @ 9:29am
        Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 9:29am | ! Report

        Ed – in 4 weeks how many games has Gibbs been out of the best players?

        He is currently averaging career high disposals (27) and tackles (5.8) and his 5.5 clearances is only surpassed by his 2014 5.6 -if that is poor I shudder to think what you think is good.

        • April 18th 2017 @ 2:27pm
          Ed said | April 18th 2017 @ 2:27pm | ! Report

          It’s not how many disposals you have it’s what you do with them and Gibbs has been woeful this year committing shocking turnovers at times – i must be watching different game to some of you blokes. I fully supported the clubs stance last year after he finally rewarded Carltons patience and had his best year by far but I predict he’ll continue to have an average year which means Carlton won’t be so annoyed to see him leave and will settle for a lesser trade so he gets his wish.

          • April 18th 2017 @ 2:38pm
            Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 2:38pm | ! Report

            Ed – its not just us you must be watching a different game to – it is all the journalists covering the games who keep naming Gibbs in Carltons best each week.

            And yes his disposal efficiency is down but his contested possessions are up so some drop off is to be expected. To put it into perspective in 2016 he averaged 18.7 Effective disposals per game so far in 2017 it is 16 but in 2016 he averaged 9.6 contested possessions but in 2017 it is 13.8.

      • April 18th 2017 @ 10:19am
        A joke said | April 18th 2017 @ 10:19am | ! Report

        If you have watched every Carlton match so far, Gibbs has been in the Blues best every week.

        Crows and Power know what the price is now for a trade back to SA, first draft picks or forget it.

        One thing missing from this potential line up is first round picks from the next couple of seasons. We will get a couple more decent bites at the talent pool coming up to further boost the line up.

        Not too sure about a few included like Pickett, LeBois, Petrevski-Seton, Kerr, Curnows, and Byrne. We cannot get Byrne on the park long enough.

        • April 18th 2017 @ 3:02pm
          steve said | April 18th 2017 @ 3:02pm | ! Report

          ” First draft picks? ” I think you mean first draft pick. Lets not get into the habit of over stating what his worth is. Adelaide would front up with a first and third last year, they certainly wont be this year. Simple first round pick gets it done. Any more than that and Carlton supporters are kidding themselves of his worth to Adelaide.

          • April 18th 2017 @ 3:06pm
            Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 3:06pm | ! Report

            Steve – his worth to Adelaide and his worth to Carlton are 2 different things and given he still has 2 years after this to run on his contract his worth to Carlton is the important one.

            The blues will want more than just 1 first round pick – especially if that pick is in the late teens.

            • April 18th 2017 @ 3:13pm
              steve said | April 18th 2017 @ 3:13pm | ! Report

              Highly doubt Adelaide will pay more than a first round pick. My gut feeling is Gibbs will see out his contract now. We should have taken the first and third they offered last year IMO.

              • April 18th 2017 @ 3:16pm
                Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 3:16pm | ! Report

                If you look at the 2019 team Col has listed above Gibbs will be of vital importance going forward. I certainly hope he stays.

              • April 19th 2017 @ 3:20pm
                The Original Buzz said | April 19th 2017 @ 3:20pm | ! Report

                With 27 players added in the last 2 years, Gibbs is needed for his leadership within the club. Admittedly there are a couple of experienced players in that lot.

      • April 18th 2017 @ 10:20am
        Brinnx said | April 18th 2017 @ 10:20am | ! Report

        Well this statement is just a straight out troll. Gibbs has been one of the blues best so far this year.

        As for the trade – well the Crows are tracking just fine without him.

      • Roar Guru

        April 18th 2017 @ 10:21am
        Col from Brissie said | April 18th 2017 @ 10:21am | ! Report

        Ed, Gibbs is contracted until the end of 2019. Unless Carlton are offered what they believe him to be worth which at this stage is at least a first round pick and more then he will stay and see out his contract.

        • April 18th 2017 @ 11:01am
          John said | April 18th 2017 @ 11:01am | ! Report

          Carlton are dreaming if they think Adelaide will hand over a 1st round pick and more for Gibbs…. Carlton have gone from undervaluing players and releasing them (Eddie Betts anyone) to now overvaluing players.

          Gibbs for a second round pick at best depending on the strength of the draft next year. Adelaide don’t need Gibbs, he is a nice to have but not a necessity.

          Carlton might believe a lots of things but that does not set the price in the market for a player such as Gibbs…

          Ultimately I think they are afraid that another player from their list will go on to be a much better player elsewhere (again) which reflects poorly on their system and previous coaching at the club… hence the massive overvaluation.

          • April 18th 2017 @ 12:35pm
            Bugaluggs said | April 18th 2017 @ 12:35pm | ! Report

            John, why would Carlton give into another low ball offer from the Crows? You got Eddie Betts for nothing. To be honest, out of spite I would never trade Gibbs to the Crows. Would prefer to deal with Port Adelaide or just let his contract run out.

            Never know, Crows might win a flag without him. Then again they might not and then you have to ask yourself maybe they should have done a deal.

            • April 18th 2017 @ 4:56pm
              John said | April 18th 2017 @ 4:56pm | ! Report

              I am not asking them to. Both clubs have valued the player. The consensus earlier this year was Carlton wanted way over the odds for Gibbs, good luck to them if they get it.

              As an aside I don’t think Gibbs would fit in at Port (he still has all his teeth) 🙂

              BTW I have no interest in Adelaide either getting Gibbs or not. Eddie Betts was simply an example there are plenty of other examples of bad decisions by Carlton regarding players leaving and becoming stars at their new clubs.. Kennedy at WC…

              • April 18th 2017 @ 5:02pm
                Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 5:02pm | ! Report

                John – As I said to Steve his worth to Adelaide and his worth to Carlton are 2 different things and as I said to Dingo look at the team Col has outlined above and notice how many players in it will have played more than 100 games by 2019 (or even 50).

                As for Kennedy he played just 2 years at the blues – he would have got significantly better had he stayed and the blues were reluctant to let him go – but when he was going back to Perth and the blues were getting Judd it was the logical choice.

              • April 18th 2017 @ 5:51pm
                Bugaluggs said | April 18th 2017 @ 5:51pm | ! Report

                The consensus at Carlton was that Gibbs was a required player and he sprung a request to move in the last weeks leading up to the trade period giving his club of a decade practically no time to work a deal.

                If Bryce wanted to move to SA, why on earth did he sign a four year contract the year before.

                In any case, he is playing well and I for one am glad he stayed. It may kill two birds with one stone. 1) help Carlton play better and improve 2) stop Crows winning the flag.

                From the crap deal the Crows offered, it was smart that the Blues held off. You get the feeling the Crows thought they stooged the Blues on Eddie Betts and possibly Troy Menzel, so they thought we’ll just give them a pig in a poke again and Carlton will fall for it again.

                Well done Blues. If they fail to make the grand final again, the Crows have their management to thank. Gibbs would have been the cherry on the cake.

          • April 18th 2017 @ 5:21pm
            Steve009 said | April 18th 2017 @ 5:21pm | ! Report

            Actually, since Gibbs is contracted to Carlton they do set his price in the market.

            Whether or not Adelaide are willing to pay that price will be determined by how close they think they are to a premiership at season end.

          • April 18th 2017 @ 5:42pm
            GJ said | April 18th 2017 @ 5:42pm | ! Report

            I doubt very much that any list management would involve emotion like “they are afraid that another player from their list will go on to be a much better player elsewhere (again) which reflects poorly on their system and previous coaching at the club… hence the massive overvaluation”.

            My guess is that clubs have a plan and trade to suit that plan. Sometimes compromise is involved. Sometimes you have to give up something worthwhile to reach your goals.

            In all honesty I don’t know too people who would have foreseen the impact Eddie Betts has had since leaving Carlton.

            • April 18th 2017 @ 5:56pm
              Bugaluggs said | April 18th 2017 @ 5:56pm | ! Report

              Eddie Betts is playing better, in a better team. You see with Hawthorn now, without their stars performing their “B” and “C” graders are lousy and no world beaters.

              Gun players drag the likes of an Eddie Betts to higher things by delivering better ball and presenting more opportunities.

              Betts is what he always was. I am not sad to have seen him go to be honest. I recall after he got a couple of games he had his hand out at Carlton looking for more money on his existing deal. He was a mercenary and still is.

              • April 18th 2017 @ 9:44pm
                GJ said | April 18th 2017 @ 9:44pm | ! Report

                Eddie “is what he always is?”. He is being discussed as possibly being the best small forward the game has seen by a couple of news outlets over the last couple of weeks.

                But yes you are right, if your team cannot get the ball into the forwards it is pretty hard for them to hurt the opposition on the scoreboard.

              • April 19th 2017 @ 9:06am
                Darren L said | April 19th 2017 @ 9:06am | ! Report

                Steady on Bugaluggs (great name BTW as I can say that without being condescending). As a Carlton fan I loved Eddie and I still love watching him play. As a small forward he will always be better in a stronger team but he is not the sort of player who just relies on teammates. He creates many chances for himself and provides opportunities for others. I also don’t buy the mercenary bit. Eddie started as a rookie and through hard work and skill has forged a fantastic career. He is from South Australia and was being offered more money and contract length to return home – I have no problem with that. He is also a great mentor and leader for many young indigenous players. He strikes me as a genuinely lovely guy.

              • April 19th 2017 @ 9:18am
                Macca said | April 19th 2017 @ 9:18am | ! Report

                I would have loved for Eddie to stay at the Blues but his worst year at the Crows is better than his best year at the blues as far as goals per game go. This has a lot to do with the fact that he is playing in a forward line that has multiple weapons (which allows him to be isolated more) – him leaving the blues should have been a win win – but we blew it by allowing Malthouse to get his BFF.

          • December 4th 2017 @ 9:29pm
            mark said | December 4th 2017 @ 9:29pm | ! Report

            John laughing at you.

      • December 4th 2017 @ 9:27pm
        mark said | December 4th 2017 @ 9:27pm | ! Report

        Not one 1st round pick ? Try 2 ya dorkman.

    • April 18th 2017 @ 9:25am
      Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 9:25am | ! Report

      Col – Looking through that side it does give a blues fan plenty of reason for hope – I would make a couple of small changes – I think I would replace Kerr with Casboult (29 in 2019) and that would allow Phillips to be replaced with the midfielder we take with our first pick this year.

      Also if we manage to jag a Fyfe/ Martin like free agent at the end of this year they would take the place of Le Bois.

      SOS has definitely proved that it wasn’t just the draft concessions that made him successful at GWS and I look forward to seeing Polson debut asap.

      • Roar Guru

        April 18th 2017 @ 10:46am
        Col from Brissie said | April 18th 2017 @ 10:46am | ! Report

        Macca, we have 2 years of draft and trade periods before 2019 so there could be 3 or 4 additions to that side. I believe given time McKay could play as a forward/ruck but I hope he is given time to develop as a key forward first.

        I went with Kerr feeling that McKay at 200cm and Casboult at 198cm might make for a too top heavy forward line and I have my doubts whether Levi will still be at the Blues in 2019. Out of contract at the end of the season I think he has to show more consistency and needs to get up to the 40 goal a season mark if he wants a contract he is happy with.

        • April 18th 2017 @ 10:53am
          Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 10:53am | ! Report

          Fair enough Col – I just think it might be a little optimistic to expect our last pick in the draft to be successful – although Polson and Williamson are looking good so who knows.

          I think Casboult has been pretty good so far this year and he and McKay with Pickett, SPS, Polson and Silvagni around them should give us enough forward pressure (particularly with McKay’s mobility) but time will tell.

          The big thing is that we have brought in some exceptional kids in the last 2 years.

        • April 18th 2017 @ 5:37pm
          Steve009 said | April 18th 2017 @ 5:37pm | ! Report

          With 2 drafts and free agency between now and 2019 there will probably be 6-10 players not yet at the club that will be in that best 22. Those players on your list getting nudged out by them giving the list some depth.

          • Roar Guru

            April 18th 2017 @ 5:56pm
            Col from Brissie said | April 18th 2017 @ 5:56pm | ! Report

            Steve009, I would be delighted if over the next 2 years we get 6 – 10 players good enough to be in our best 22, even 5 would be great. As you said it will give our list depth which is something we have lacked for many years.

      • April 18th 2017 @ 3:08pm
        steve said | April 18th 2017 @ 3:08pm | ! Report

        Macca, the guy I get my info off says neither Fyfe nor Martin will be at Carlton next season. Furthermore we have no interest in either of them. SOS is massively into Jacob Hopper and wants him bad. Rates him very highly. Also rates and has interest in getting Matthew Kennedy as well from GWS. Also is interested in Harley Balic from Fremantle.

        • April 18th 2017 @ 3:12pm
          Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 3:12pm | ! Report

          Steve – I Only listed those names because they were quick to come to mind – the blues are on record saying they want to get a big name in – the ones you name would be good but will come at a cost and I believe I am right in saying we don’t have a second round pick it will make for interesting negotiations as I doubt the will want to give up their first pick this year – possibly a future pick or 2 will get things done.

          • April 18th 2017 @ 3:15pm
            steve said | April 18th 2017 @ 3:15pm | ! Report

            I certainly think next years first rounder is on the table. SOS wants Hopper bad apparently. I think we can take both Hopper and Kennedy with next years first rounder.

            • April 18th 2017 @ 3:34pm
              Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 3:34pm | ! Report

              I would prefer Hopper and a first round pick back from GWS at least to be honest.

      • April 19th 2017 @ 3:43pm
        steve said | April 19th 2017 @ 3:43pm | ! Report

        Macca, I’m hearing from my guy Polson will play this week. Kruezer, Cripps and SPS all in doubt.

        • April 19th 2017 @ 3:51pm
          Macca said | April 19th 2017 @ 3:51pm | ! Report

          I am pretty confident Polson will play – hopefully the other 3 all get up but I could see them resting SPS for a week. Wouldn’t be surprised if MacReadie goes out to after his cork last week.

        • April 19th 2017 @ 3:54pm
          Macca said | April 19th 2017 @ 3:54pm | ! Report

          Is your bloke barrass70?

    • April 18th 2017 @ 10:31am
      Brinnx said | April 18th 2017 @ 10:31am | ! Report

      Nice effort Col, two years is a long time in footy, but I think your pretty spot on with your timeline if everything go’s to plan.

      I was only thinking this week watching the game how things will be when our young’un have 50-60 games under their belt rather than 10-20 so to an extent you read my mind with this article.

      IMHO I don’t think we will push for the 8 until 2021,as nothing even goes perfectly to plan, unless we jag some absolute superstars from the draft and Father/Son in the next couple of drafts.

      Hey might happen ! , hope flows eternal.

      Would be a fun exercise to see a similar article on teams in our situation, like Brisbane

      • April 18th 2017 @ 10:34am
        Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 10:34am | ! Report

        Brinnx – 2021 for the 8? I think that is a little pessimistic – when things turn they can turn pretty quick.

        • April 18th 2017 @ 5:29pm
          Steve009 said | April 18th 2017 @ 5:29pm | ! Report

          Im guessing at 2019 pushing for the eight, 2020 making the 8

      • Roar Guru

        April 18th 2017 @ 11:28am
        Col from Brissie said | April 18th 2017 @ 11:28am | ! Report

        Brinnx a couple of superstars in the draft wouldn’t go astray. As for father/son picks we have Adrian Hickmotts sons Liam this year and Will next year. It would be nice if they are hard-nuts like their father. Ben Silvagni is also available in 2018.

    • April 18th 2017 @ 11:31am
      Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 11:31am | ! Report

      Another Hickmott would be handy – are his sons looking any good?

      All the talk has been that Ben Silvagni will be better than Jack – if that is true we could get a real bargain.

      • Roar Guru

        April 18th 2017 @ 11:57am
        Col from Brissie said | April 18th 2017 @ 11:57am | ! Report

        Both the Hickmott boys play for Subiaco Colts. I can’t find any information on them other than Liam is 176cm and Will is 180cm.

    • April 18th 2017 @ 11:47am
      Andrew said | April 18th 2017 @ 11:47am | ! Report

      How is Jake Bradley going Macca, Col? Any info? Used to love watching his dad rack up the numbers.

      • April 18th 2017 @ 11:54am
        Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 11:54am | ! Report

        Can’t say for sure Andrew but I don’t think he has played in the VFL senior team as yet.

    • April 18th 2017 @ 1:12pm
      Dave said | April 18th 2017 @ 1:12pm | ! Report

      Nice article, I genuinely believe we can play finals in 2019!

      I don’t think we can accommodate Kreuzer and Phillips in the sale line up, Mckay will need to help out in the ruck to give Matty a rest and Andy will be for back up.

      Also don’t write off D.Cuningham, he is still building a tank but is really quick and a good user of the footy. He will only get better and will play a stack of games for the blues.

      Don’t think the crows will be interested in Gibbs if they win the flag this year, Bryce still has plenty of good footy ahead of him and isn’t injury prone. Should definitely command their first rounder if they do come knocking.

      By all reports Ben is a stronger mark and better kick than Jack and will play early in 2019, add either or both of the Hickmott’s plus our next two first rounders and chase Shiel as an FA in 2019 and we have the nucleus for our next flag tilt.

      Exciting times to come fellow baggers!

      • April 18th 2017 @ 1:32pm
        Macca said | April 18th 2017 @ 1:32pm | ! Report

        Dave – I was very impressed with Cuningham last year but he seems to have made a slow start to 2017 – hopefully he does emerge in the back half of the year because I think he is exactly the type we need, a quick mid with clean hands who uses it well.

        • April 18th 2017 @ 10:50pm
          Tyler Hamsandwich said | April 18th 2017 @ 10:50pm | ! Report

          Cuningham had 25 touches and was one of the Northern Blues’ best on the weekend.

          • April 19th 2017 @ 9:08am
            Macca said | April 19th 2017 @ 9:08am | ! Report

            I saw that last night Tyler – all the reporting prior had been on Gallucci and Polson – I really liked Frasers line ” it was an important game from him for his development” hopefully we get to see him back in the 1’s before too long.