The signs of impending doom were there, we just didn’t look hard enough. Or we put too much faith in the established order. Or we didn’t dare believe it might be so (depending on where our loyalties lie).
Hawthorn had been hanging on by its fingernails for quite some time and, bit by bit, their resistance was fading.
So much of modern football is measurable by numbers, some relatively complex and requiring informed analysis, others straightforward. In the case of the Hawks, the latter will do.
For starters, they’ve now lost eight of their last ten games: prior to this season’s implosion, they’d won two of their last six in 2016. One of those, a must-win affair against lowly Collingwood, was snatched from the fire by Jack Fitzpatrick’s memorable late goal at the MCG.
That heart-stopper was the sixth thriller the Hawks had negotiated for the season. Five were won by a kick and there was a nine-point win over North Melbourne in mid-year. We, of course, all nodded sagely and muttered to the effect that it showed how much belief this mighty team had. It would all be okay on the night. Or day, or whenever the grand final was scheduled.
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How hypnotised we become by sustained success. As you look back now, Hawthorn was clearly a fading entity. If the three consecutive one-kick wins in the first five weeks had gone the other way, they were 1-5 by Round 6. And before you say, “But they didn’t”, the fact is the Hawks were by now playing close to the cliff’s edge.
Their phase of stability last year was a nine-win sequence from late-May until the end of July. But, with the benefit of hindsight, even that was a mirage. Only two of the nine teams they beat through that period made the finals – edging North Melbourne by nine points as mentioned above, and downing Sydney at the SCG by five points.
Perhaps the latter was the Hawks’ finest two hours of the season but maybe, just maybe, it was achieved against a team also struggling with the pull of gravity. The other wins were all against bottom-half teams.
So, the writing was on the wall. Not that it warned of so spectacularly disastrous a start to the 2017 season as we’ve seen.
However, having slipped from last year’s top four by the end, having parted ways with two of its greatest players of the era, and with the clock ticking audibly on some others, the Hawks were hardly likely to go forward. They could reasonably be expected to be a lower-end-of-the-eight prospect at best. And that’s based purely on the cold, hard numbers.
But there’s more. When eras end and great teams begin the inevitable slide, another factor inevitably comes into play. This is, thank goodness, where the game’s humanity still asserts itself. And that, it’s fair to say, is what we’re now seeing.
Suddenly, Cyril Rioli (most obviously), Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Liam Shiels, Josh Gibson and a few others are playing without killer instinct, for they know their team is no longer a killer. As that knowledge has penetrated their collective psyche, the glorious confidence of the past five seasons has eroded. And the players promoted to fill gaps in the team haven’t found themselves surrounded by a supremely confident group, as had happened in recent years. Indeed, theirs is the polar opposite experience.
I was foolish enough to imagine a rebound from the Round 3 humiliation on the Gold Coast. Instead, through the early stages on Easter Monday, the tentative team wearing brown and gold was unrecognisable as Hawthorn.
Fortunately for the Hawks, Geelong seemed to be jumping at shadows. Until late in the day, the Cats played as though dealing with a ticking time-bomb. Once they realised their opponent carried no weapons, however, they beat Hawthorn as no one has done in years.
So, where to now? It’s no longer a matter of whether the Hawks can make the finals; more of how low they can go. Currently, they’re dead last. Surely not?
This, as we know, is what can happen to a team that’s enjoyed sustained success. The question is: how to rebuild quickly? And who should lead the new era?
Alastair Clarkson acted with breathtaking boldness in farewelling Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis. He might well be asking himself now whether, despite his long-term contract, he should join them. Former club president Jeff Kennett thinks so.
Clarkson could make a fresh start elsewhere – there’ll be no shortage of suitors. On the other hand, Hawthorn plucked him from relative obscurity and gave him a start. Also, having made such a radical move on two of the club’s greatest champions to begin the rebuild, it could be argued Clarkson now has an obligation to dig in for the long haul.
It’s been a brown-and-golden era. For nearly a decade now, the Hawks have been armour-plated as they’ve controlled the traffic around them.
Suddenly, they’re very exposed as they stand at the crossroads.
Lord Espos
Guest
Wow talk about terrible article. Tim your salty tears and hopes for Hawthorn failure make me smile.
CD Xbow
Guest
Sorry Tim, Wrong, wrong and even more wrong We're back. be afraid.
Davo23
Guest
Hey Timmy, your love for the Hawks knows no bounds! Did I say "love"? Sorry, I mean "hate"!
Cosmic Rocket
Guest
Flash forward 12 months and they're back in the top 4. Oops!
Leonard
Guest
Good to read Mr Lane using "impending", rather than 'inevitable' (beloved and overused by lesser journos), in his opening about Hawthorn's current fall from power. As some very clever bugger said, 'Nothing is inevitable until it happens'. Anyone bagging Hawthorn should recall that for ten years they have defied the AFL's draft + salary cap equalisation arrangements intended to prevent 1980s Hawthorn-type dynasties. In the same period, although to a somewhat lesser extent, so have Sydney and Geelong. As have, in a reverse mode, Melbourne and Brisbane.
mattyb
Guest
I think your right there Andy. The new breed of Hawthorn supporters should definitely be given the chance to show they are willing to turn Hawthorns historical bandwagon culture around. I think I've acknowledged this, but just feel it's something to keep an eye on. These new members you mention have never really had the chance to show whether they are a new breed of supporters going by what you've said,so fingers crossed the culture has changed. I think any mention of the enormous advantages Hawthorn have had over recent years from both rules and circumstance is more a counter from people for your ongoing need to undersell the performances of Brisbane and to a lesser extent Sydney,to make Hawthorn sound as good as you would like to believe. Like I've said previous,there is no shame in running second to Brisbane as the greatest side of the modern era. Just because Brisbanes achievements are greater than Hawthorns,this does not take away from how good Hawthorn have been over their journey.
andyl12
Guest
MattyB, that is not the true version of history. In the 80s we had barely 10% of the membership base we had now, we had no Tasmanian sponsorship deals, no massive cash reserves in the bank. What people don't realise is that kids who first watched Hawthorn in the 70s and 80s (I being one) didn't have the money to save the club in 1996 but now they are all adults and they're buying memberships. Our support base has a totally different dynamic to what it had back then. Hawthorn and Geelong have been the most innovative clubs of the 21st century and it has paid dividends for them. Hawthorn has enough past greats helping out (Because they are treated much better than you're making out- Jason Dunstall being an example) that our culture and professionalism will never die. These might all be inconvenient truths to doomsday predictors like yourself, but deep down you know I'm right. The only question is who will you blame when Hawthorn's next flag comes (which I guarantee you will be some time in the 2020s)- will it be the old MCG chestnut again or will you have come up with something else?
mattyb
Guest
Andy,I think everyone will agree we are still a few years from that scenario like was stated. We cannot ignore history though. The Hawthorn sides of the 70's and 80's were far far better than this current side and the moment they stopped winning the supporters left in droves. I don't think after all that success many would have thought the merger with Melbourne would have been so close to becoming reality. Remember also, there will be no Don Scott to rally the troops this time. Hawthorn have a traditional of showing past greats the door after they have helped the club and Don Scott has learnt this harsh reality twice now, so I very much doubt he'll be back for a third helping. Let's hope Hawthorn can move away from having the league's most fickle fans despite the fact the club is sitting on the bottom of the ladder with no players and no draft picks for a couple of years. This will be a great opportunity for the fans to show their true colours.
Philby
Guest
Yes. And I'll hop on board here with my little bugbear, which is how Hawks fans (and others) take a pop at Tigers supporters, who supposedly, 'come out of the woodwork' when we have a few wins. Let me tell you, Tigers fans have been through lean times for a while, and we still have one of the biggest paid membership bases in the competition, which can only happen when a club has 'all weather' supporters. And that's not just for touching 'father and son' moments as we microwave our memberships together, as Mick Molloy would have you believe! Anyway, It'll be interesting to see how and in what numbers Hawks supporters will respond.
Philby
Guest
I don't know if you can call the game plan 'daft' if it results in 4 flags (!!). What I would say though is that offloading Mitchell and Lewis was all about getting salary cap room for a huge offer to a big name player. The question is, who is that big name player (Nat Fyfe? Dusty Martin? Tom Lynch?), and now that the Hawks have dropped their bundle, would any of them be interested?
Philby
Guest
That's getting a bit personal for my taste.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
You're right Andy. It could actually be a smart tactic psychologically for a coach to acknowledge the disadvantage in the lead-up to the game and paint themselves as underdogs. It would also be a smart move strategically for these clubs to be vocal about the issue. But stuff 'em. The MCG grand final is sacred! ? We are the sporting capital of the world. #VicsRule
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Yeah I'm not sure why Hannebury should be in this conversation. He's a ball player and behaves with dignity. I don't have a problem with Greene either. But I do think GWS have a major attitude problem among some of their players (standover sniper mentality and cocky peacocks).
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Good comment Nineteen. Except that you've already traded away your first two draft picks this year, so "tanking" won't do you any good.
andyl12
Guest
SHM, who do you go for?
andyl12
Guest
"discussions with St.Kilda down the track about a merger might not be totally out of the question." You really do love to dream, don't you. Maybe pigs will fly soon.
andyl12
Guest
"Theyre not going to admit the disadvantage going into the game." If Sydney and West Coast genuinely want their cities to host Grand Finals then they do have to admit the "current disadvantage" at all times and not just when it suits them. DH- From 2001-2006 all flags were won by interstate teams. The view in Victoria was having 10 local teams was the reason why. The AFL may not have actively pushed mergers or relocations during that period but senior figures in the game (such as Ron Barassi) were of the view that most Victorian teams now faced excessive hurdles trying to move up the ladder. Geelong and Hawthorn changed all this and Carlton/Essendon/Collingwood (Collingwood not quite so much) still wonder how. It's fair to say the Bulldogs' 2016 flag owes plenty to Hawthorn's display of what was possible if you run your club the right way.
Reservoir Animal
Guest
JK, who do you barrack for?
andyl12
Guest
Hear hear!
Bugaluggs
Guest
Never know, they might do better in WW3 which seems to be closer than a lot of people think the way some hot headed leaders are behaving of late. Ironically the Krouts are the good guys this time.