The Essendon Bombers and the Collingwood Magpies will meet at the MCG for the 23rd edition of the annual Anzac Day clash this afternoon, both of them a little behind where they would like to be at the moment.
After knocking off Hawthorn in Round 1 the Bombers would have been fairly confident of achieving a 3-0 start, but that was ruined on a rainy day by Carlton in Round 3, and then they got slammed by Adelaide last week.
Collingwood have been competitive enough in the middle to win all four of their games so far, but a misfiring forward line has doomed them to a 1-3 start to the year.
There’s not a lot being said about the Bombers at the moment as expectations around them were middling to low for most this year, but the noise will grow if they continue to lose games.
Collingwood, on the other hand, are understandably a hot topic in the media with Nathan Buckley out of contract at the end of the year and having a stated goal of finals or bust this year.
In particular this week there’s been a bit of chatter about Collingwood’s forward woes and specifically Darcy Moore, who despite his universally recognised talent has kicked only a single goal this year.
It’s not just Moore in the Collingwood forward line who is struggling though, it’s the whole unit. The Magpies are running at a tick under 43 per cent accuracy in their scoring shots and haven’t kicked more goals than behinds in a single game so far this year, which is atrocious.
Compared to their opponents Essendon, they have recorded 29 more inside 50s for the year and take one less disposal on average to record an inside 50 – but, they have kicked 12 less goals and are scoring about half a point less per inside 50 than the Bombers.
The forward line aside though, Collingwood have a couple of things to be happy about.
Their highly-rated midfield is living up to the hype in terms of winning the ball – they’re averaging more than seven clearances and nearly five contested possesions a game more than their opponents.
However, their class when disposing of the ball and ability to pressure the opposition are less impressive. Across their first four games they’ve commited 19 more turnovers than their opponents, and have recorded 27 less tackles and 94 less pressure acts.
Brodie Grundy is giving them a real advantage in the ruck – they’ve won the hit-out count in every game this year and are +78 on their opponents in that stat across the four weeks so far.
Also, their defence is holding up a bit better than expected thanks to Ben Reid’s ability to remain fit so far, and the unexpected value that former Sun Henry Schade has brought into the mix.
Their game essentially is a tried and true classic – win the contested ball and drive it forward to score. A finely-tuned watch is no match for a mallet, if swung with enough precision and strength. Winning the ball they are doing well, turning that into points they are not.
Essendon on the other hand despite having signficantly different personnel don’t have that different a gamestyle from what they did in 2016.
Last year they were looking to control the ball as much as possible with the aim of limiting teams’ ability to score against them, and it was vital to preventing too many blowouts and keeping the players’ morale high.
This year they’re still looking to control the ball, but they’ve got a greater offensive capability and they’re using it.
Noticeably the Bombers are -29 for the year when it comes to contested possession and -22 for clearances, but have 151 more uncontested possessions and 101 more marks than their opponents.
They’re using a few more hands on the ball to get it forward than the Pies might, but they’re having better luck once they get in there. On average it takes them about one disposal less to get a point on the board than it does the Pies.
Their accuracy from scoring shots is about 58 per cent, significantly better than Collingwood. Even the oft-maligned Joe Daniher has kicked a healthy 9.6 for the year so far.
The key to beating them has been to put pressure on them – you can’t always stop them controlling the ball, but you can make them too cautious to play good offensive footy.
It’s a simple metric. In matches where they’ve had more pressure acts than their opponents, Essendon have won. In matches where they’ve had less, they’ve lost.
That’s bad news for Collingwood who haven’t beaten any of their opponents in pressure acts so far this year. If they don’t find a way to lift their intensity in that area they will struggle to shut down Essendon’s ball movement.
The other key areas for the Pies will be to do better up forward and use the ball with more class. With that being the case, the inclusion of Daniel Wells to make his Collingwood debut after 243 games with North Melbourne could be a game-changer.
Also keep an eye on Alex Fasolo and Jamie Elliott as the most dangerous players in Collingwood’s forward line – they need to deliver the reward for effort that the Magpie midfield is begging for.
For Essendon the focuses have to be restricting Collingwood’s ability to dominate the game through their ball-winning talent, and not getting drawn into too much of a scrap – work smarter, not harder.
It’s no surprise that their worst performance of the year so far, against Carlton in Round 3, came when heavy rain limited their ability to control the ball and forced them into a more physical contest.
To really put the ‘Forecast’ into Anzac Day Forecast: rain is likely at the MCG in the morning but will become less of a factor as the day goes on, so conditions will probably be clear enough for Essendon to play the game their way.
Unless the Pies up their ability to put pressure on and break up the Bombers’ ball control overnight then their average disposal and poor forwardline efficiency should play into Essendon’s hands.
That said, an uber-classy performance against the grain of the team from Wells or Scott Pendlebury, or a bag of goals from Elliott or Fasolo, could lift Collingwood to victory.
Bombers by four goals I’ll say, but the win is there for the taking.
That’s my Anzac Day Forecast. What’s yours?
Diplomatically answered, Darcy!
For all the pomp and circumstance that surrounds the now-traditional Anzac Day clash at the MCG, there has been one thing conspicuously lacking over…
Old mate summing it up better than anyone possibly could!
