- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
With about a minute to go in the first half of the Gold Coast’s Round 6 clash against North Melbourne on Saturday night, the Channel Seven commentary team turned their attention to the impressive recent form of Gary Ablett.
Ablett had, to that point in the match, already gathered 22 possessions.
They discussed how Ablett had clearly been ‘stung’ into action by media criticism after his relatively quiet 16-possession game in the Suns’ heavy loss to the Giants in Round 2.
The following are a selection of comments from the Channel Seven team during that exchange.
Basil Zempilas: “Lingy, do you feel like he was stung by that criticism because his response has been brilliant?”
Cameron Ling: “Yeah, it’s been red hot.
Luke Darcy: “He has responded like an out and out champion”
The overarching theme of this particular narrative sits comfortably with the modern day sports commentator who see the role they play as central to the happenings on and off field. One where their views and opinions are extremely valued and drive actions in players, coaches and administrators.
It is true that from Round 3 Ablett has put together four straight games with more than 30 possessions in an impressive run of form. What this isn’t though is a ‘stick it up them’ response from Ablett, it’s just a professional footballer doing what he has done for the best part of his career.
Since his transfer to the Suns in 2011, Ablett has averaged more than 30 possessions a game, in fact over this period, 55 per cent of his games have resulted in greater than 30 possessions. He has also pulled together streaks of games, of 30 or more possessions, that have been at least equal in length to the current one on six occasions.
As can be seen Ablett’s current output levels are no aberration he has simply returned to his average performance standard – one that is just by all possible measures incredibly high.
Mathematicians call this ‘mean reversion’ the theory that suggests over time performance levels move back towards the mean or average
John Newcombe the former champion Australian tennis player turned commentator, but one schooled in a different era to Ling and Darcy, regularly touches upon this concept of mean reversion in his commentary.
Newcombe notes how over the course of a five-set match a player can often raise performance levels to above their usual standard but if their opponent can hang in through this period and not give up the match, that sure enough that players performance levels will drop back to their normal levels and their opponent will have a chance to get back in the game.
There is no doubt that Gary Ablett will go on racking up 30 possession games for the Suns as he enters the twilight of an exceptional career.
What isn’t clear though is if this was one off by the Channel Seven commentary team, or will they soon be taking credit for other normal and expected performance levels at the footy like sauce served on meat pies or queues at the bar at half time?
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.