The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 9

Josh Elliott Editor

By Josh Elliott, Josh Elliott is a Roar Editor

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    We may be down to just eight games of AFL this weekend, but that’s still more than enough to keep us busy and there are some hard choices to make when tipping this week.

    Geelong and the Bulldogs both have plenty to lose when push comes to shove on Friday night. You’d think if Geelong were capable of quickly snapping out of their recent bad form that they would have done it already – Bulldogs for me.

    St Kilda and Sydney have both hit some great form over the last few weeks, making their match on Saturday a cracker. I’ll back in the Saints.

    With injuries mounting GWS are vulnerable, and though Richmond have lost three in a row they’ve but in good effort along the way most of the time. I reckon the Tigers can pull it off.

    What’s a par margin for Adelaide after two bad losses when they go to play Brisbane? They’ll want to make amends and we could be in for a triple-figures smashing.

    Collingwood and Hawthorn is as difficult a match to tip as we get all week, neither side consistently displaying their best footy. With Hawthorn losing several key players to injury I’ll go Collingwood.

    West Coast and Essendon play a simillar brand of footy, and at the moment West Coast do it better, even if they are on the road.

    North Melbourne have a fifteen-game winning streak over Melbourne, the longest current streak in the AFL. Can the Dees break it on Sunday? As a Roos fan I hope not, but suspect they will. Except liberal use of the phrase “Roo Hoodoo”.

    Fremantle at home should get over the line against Carlton, but if the match was being played in Melbourne things would be a lot more interesting.

    GWS rescued me from a third wrong Lock of the Week in a row last week – thank you Stevie J. The Crows are it for me this week.

    Lock of the week from the Simpsons

    Maddy Friend
    Bulldogs, Sydney, GWS, Adelaide, Collingwood, West Coast, Melbourne, Fremantle

    Geelong versus the Bulldogs will be a great game, with the Cats playing their first of three consecutive matches at the redeveloped Skilled Stadium.

    The Cats will be out to make a statement after their recent losses, but I think the Bulldogs will get the job done, especially if they welcome back Mitch Wallis and Tory Dickson as has been foreshadowed.

    Sydney are finding their mojo again, and I expect them to take it up to the Saints. Buddy Franklin likes playing the Saints, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets off the leash again. I’m tipping the Swans in a close one.

    GWS should account for Richmond at Spotless, while I expect Adelaide to bounce back in a big way against a hapless Brisbane.

    Hawthorn’s recent injury woes open the door for Collingwood – it should be a close one, and I’m tipping the Pies, just – I think their midfield strength will get them over the line.

    West Coast should account for a resurgent Essendon in a close match, while I’d expect Melbourne to beat North, but it really depends which Melbourne team shows up.

    In the final game, Fremantle should beat Carlton at home, but I expect the Blues to give a decent account of themselves.

    Cameron Rose
    Bulldogs, Sydney, Richmond, Adelaide, Collingwood, West Coast, Melbourne, Fremantle

    Friday night football delivers a pearler – either Geelong loses four in a row or the reigning premier Dogs lose their third game in four rounds and in all probability fall out of the eight. I’m banking on the Dogs to get it done.

    Sydney are back in town, up against a St Kilda outfit with their sights firmly on finals, and a high up finish at that. Swans to keep going, for mine.

    GWS are gettable, and I might just bank on my Tigers to pull off the upset at Spotless Stadium that Collingwood couldn’t. Adelaide to get back on the winners list against Brisbane. Collingwood seem to be going two losses and then a win so far this season, and I’ll bank on that trend to continue with victory over Hawthorn.

    On Sunday, West Coast comfortably over Essendon, even though it’s at Etihad. Melbourne to beat North. Fremantle to continue on their way against Carlton in Perth, but it won’t be a snack for them given the Blues beat them there last year.

    Round 9 Josh Elliott Maddy Friend Tim Lane Cam Rose The Crowd
    Last week 4 5 5 7 5
    Total 40 40 42 44 45
    Josh Elliott
    Josh Elliott

    Josh Elliott may be The Roar's Weekend Editor, but at heart he's just a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29 and listen to him on The Roar's AFL Podcast.

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    The Crowd Says (47)

    • Roar Guru

      May 18th 2017 @ 11:22am
      Paul D said | May 18th 2017 @ 11:22am | ! Report

      I don’t know why you just don’t make your lock of the week whoever is playing Brisbane, you’d be 7 from 8 at this point

      only team who hasn’t upset someone at any stage this season (a win over the suns isn’t an upset, they’re always a coin toss)

      • May 18th 2017 @ 12:42pm
        true blue said | May 18th 2017 @ 12:42pm | ! Report

        Paul D: You will still beat us up at the Gabba. We haven’t won up there since the Ratten years.

        • May 18th 2017 @ 1:18pm
          Macca said | May 18th 2017 @ 1:18pm | ! Report

          True Blue – I am much more confident about this week than I am about our trip to the Gabba

          • May 18th 2017 @ 1:27pm
            true blue said | May 18th 2017 @ 1:27pm | ! Report

            Macca: Me too. I actually think we are better off playing Freo at Subiaco, than we would be if we were playing them here.

            • Roar Guru

              May 18th 2017 @ 4:12pm
              Paul D said | May 18th 2017 @ 4:12pm | ! Report

              A win over Carlton at home is never an upset

              Thanks for keeping us company the past few years! Hopefully we meet in another final some day.

          • Roar Guru

            May 19th 2017 @ 9:05am
            Steve J said | May 19th 2017 @ 9:05am | ! Report

            As long as Fyfe doesn’t break his leg and Johno doesn’t stuff his hammy like lat year then I am quietly confident that Freo, with Hill the elder back in, will get the job done over your boys.

            It’s going to be a wet one at Subi on Sunday and Freo have got he big bodies around the ball in Fyfe, Blakely, Mundy and Sandi to do the work in close.

            Will be an interesting game for McCarthy, he is due to explode with a bag any day now

      • May 18th 2017 @ 1:11pm
        me too said | May 18th 2017 @ 1:11pm | ! Report

        Keep sticking by them. I started following the Saints in 79. Started the year off with a big win against the premier. That was the highlight for the next ten years! Carlton tried to send us into receivership, players all sacrificed money to keep us alive. Yet here we still are. Seen us in four grand finals, and plenty of finals since the late nineties. And one day we might even win another flag!? Ups and downs.

        • Roar Guru

          May 18th 2017 @ 4:13pm
          Paul D said | May 18th 2017 @ 4:13pm | ! Report

          Hanging in there, it’s the lack of any conceivable pathway to even get to the ups that is dispiriting

          The news the club has accepted Schache will walk at the end of this season is particularly demoralizing. The draft doesn’t work for us anymore unless it’s a qld kid, and even then, as Tayla Harris has demonstrated that’s no guarantee either


          • May 18th 2017 @ 4:56pm
            Slane said | May 18th 2017 @ 4:56pm | ! Report

            On the plus side Schache looks to be coming to Tigerland.

            • May 18th 2017 @ 8:29pm
              rusty said | May 18th 2017 @ 8:29pm | ! Report

              It’s not right PaulD but I don’t know what the answer is.

            • Roar Guru

              May 18th 2017 @ 9:47pm
              Paul D said | May 18th 2017 @ 9:47pm | ! Report

              If he turns out to be your Tom Boyd I take it all back

              rusty – I don’t know either. The facilities are the biggest problem I think, they really are rubbish, 1990’s era stuff when every other club is in multi-million dollar built for purpose complexes. fix that and then I think we can stop the bleeding

              • Roar Guru

                May 19th 2017 @ 9:06am
                Steve J said | May 19th 2017 @ 9:06am | ! Report

                Hang on to Hipwood – he’s going to be a jet!

    • May 18th 2017 @ 11:24am
      Birdman said | May 18th 2017 @ 11:24am | ! Report

      Pies a chance but Hawks will have them covered even with half the back line out and Cyril sidelined – Clarko to find a way.

      • May 18th 2017 @ 1:23pm
        Dan, Concord, said | May 18th 2017 @ 1:23pm | ! Report

        Birdman- I love your confidence. I’m definitely not as confident. With all those injuries any and I MEAN ANY team would struggle.

        Josh I thought you had learnt your lesson from last week. I’m glad you have tipped against them…better chance for a Hawks win. Haha
        I’m going to the Swan v Hawks game Friday week. All I want is a competitive effort!

        • May 19th 2017 @ 11:40am
          pieman said | May 19th 2017 @ 11:40am | ! Report

          If you want a sure tip….collingwood will have another “honorable” loss another loss which will deafen us for the silence from little eddie and Nathan.

    • May 18th 2017 @ 12:39pm
      Kaniel Outis said | May 18th 2017 @ 12:39pm | ! Report

      Melbourne’s win against Adelaide was impressive. They beat Adelaide up around the ball. They played good old fashioned tough football.

      That being said, they will lose to North this weekend. Nothing has changed at Melbourne, as they will go in as favorites, and they won’t be able to handle expectations. North will come out and kick them to the curb.

      On the surface this is a battle between two small clubs, but their histories contrast dramatically. Melbourne were the original born to rule powerhouse of the VFL, while North were a struggling working class club. Melbourne’s era ended when Richmond became an MCG co-tenant. In my lifetime Melbourne have gone nowhere while North have won premierships off the smell of an oily rag. Having the well to do, right wing politicians, and reactionary shock jocks as supporters counts for nothing when it comes to spirit and passion on the field. The irony is that is was a Melbourne man who helped changed the fortunes of North.

      In short North will win this one.

      • May 18th 2017 @ 1:26pm
        hal said | May 18th 2017 @ 1:26pm | ! Report


      • May 18th 2017 @ 1:55pm
        Lord Dunsborough of Malvern said | May 18th 2017 @ 1:55pm | ! Report

        I assure you sir that the Grand Old Club has moved well beyond whatever outdated views you hold of us. The money and well to do supporters are still there but we are no longer born to rule, even the musty halls of the MCC have heard of this new-fangled concept of democracy and understand that we need to be seen to be equals, even if only through the socialist mechanics of the salary cap.

        Paul Roos has rebuilt the MCC into a new fighting force, with confidence and determination to shrug off the past. We will send those working class butchers back to their abbatoirs. I assure that I would rather be surrounded by the supporters I encounter in the MCC private bar than the scruffy ne-er do wells that plague North’s designated seating areas. Passion off the field or lack thereof counts for nothing on the field as you say, but I would argue sir, that our players have far more pride and motivation to succeed than anyone at North ever will which is why we will be triumphant on Sunday.

        Also, it was Allan Aylett who oversaw the rebuild of North Melbourne. Barassi was simply the best candidate available and being the generous philanthropists we are at the MCC we were happy to loan him to you to teach you how a real football club should play. Your churlishness and ingratitude is typical of your working class origins and your ignorance of how our wealth and willingness to share it got you a seat at the big table.

        It’s a grand old flag…

      • May 18th 2017 @ 4:18pm
        sammy said | May 18th 2017 @ 4:18pm | ! Report

        If melbourne are flat this weekend, it will reflect the immense pressure they put up last week reflected in a huge tackle count. It was the same for North the week before – tackled like madmen and then were flat the week after. It will be interesting to see how they come out to play

        • May 18th 2017 @ 8:31pm
          rusty said | May 18th 2017 @ 8:31pm | ! Report

          Melbourne will smash North.

          • May 19th 2017 @ 7:02am
            tibor nagy (big four sticks) said | May 19th 2017 @ 7:02am | ! Report

            Melbourne are front runners

    • May 18th 2017 @ 1:02pm
      Lord Dunsborough of Malvern said | May 18th 2017 @ 1:02pm | ! Report

      Every losing streak has to be broken eventually Mr Elliott. Your shinboner rabble might have keyed our Range Rovers and egged our fine houses for a good many years now, but the day is coming when the Kangaroos too will be ground under the boots of the MCC New Model army. The Demons are on the march, under the grand old flag. I have already cancelled the September holiday in expectation and told my darling wife to stock up on Valium for when she attends the finals matches. She’s not much of a fan but the old girl supports my little football hobby, even if she does get bored and wants a double chardonnay & a sleeping tablet about 30 seconds after the opening bounce.

      I shall be at the MCG on Sunday for one of the rare instances when the Melbourne faithful outnumber the opposition supporters – I look forward to watching the few desperadoes who brave the unfamiliar venue of the G being given the bum’s rush out of the gates back to a 57 tram and their cheap rentals in Arden street.

    • May 18th 2017 @ 1:13pm
      Macca said | May 18th 2017 @ 1:13pm | ! Report

      Josh – “Fremantle at home should get over the line against Carlton, but if the match was being played in Melbourne things would be a lot more interesting.” These 2 teams rarely play in Melbourne but the last game between the 2 was a 6 goal loss to the blues. The last time the blues beat Freo in Melbourne was 2008 and we have won only 1 of the last 7 in Melbourne.

      On the other hand f the last 6 games between these 2 sides in Perth 4 have been results of 8 points or less and only 1 has been by 36 points or more (42) with the blues winning 3 of them.

      The blues 3 wins have all come against low scoring teams ranked 4th, 7th & 8th lowest respectively(the 3 lowest they have played), Freo are the 3rd lowest scoring team which give the blues a chance.

      It will be a difficult game for the blues but they are definitely a chance.

      • Roar Guru

        May 18th 2017 @ 2:22pm
        Dalgety Carrington said | May 18th 2017 @ 2:22pm | ! Report

        Macca all that last stat really tells us is that they’ve won against sides that have had their struggles so far this year, which is unsurprising given Carlton would fit comfortably into the side with struggles category.

        Also unsurprising, it seems that you’ve come up with a theory and gone looking for evidence to shoehorn into it.

        A simpler statement to spruik Carlton’s chances would be to say Freo are struggling to play four quarter footy so far, so we in with a real chance with our disruptor game plan.

        • May 18th 2017 @ 2:28pm
          Macca said | May 18th 2017 @ 2:28pm | ! Report

          Dalgety – The stat shows (almost too obviously really) that a side like Carlton who struggles to score but has a pretty sound defensive structure is more likely to win against a side who also struggles to score, this is why I was quite confident going into the Collingwood game. It is also why I was reasonably confident going into the corresponding game last year.

          I don’t know why you are taking such personal offence to an obvious fact that Freo is a low scoring team.

          • Roar Guru

            May 18th 2017 @ 4:46pm
            Dalgety Carrington said | May 18th 2017 @ 4:46pm | ! Report

            Why would you assume I’m taking personal offence. Just amused really, the stat is so circular as to be virtually meaningless. Nice try in trying to use your old “you’re just biased” distraction trope though.

            On the Carlton’s recent record at Subi, you do have to wonder how much Malthouse’s significant inside knowledge and experience at the ground (and to a lesser extent Judd’s) influenced that.

            • May 18th 2017 @ 4:56pm
              Macca said | May 18th 2017 @ 4:56pm | ! Report

              It isn’t an assumption, dalgety, it is an impression.

              And are you seriously arguing that the blues aren’t better off playing a team that struggles to score?

              Carlton were able to restrict teams like St Kilda and the Suns for long periods but because they are greater threats offensively they were eventually able to put break the shackles and score heavily in short periods. Teams like Collingwood who lack a real scoring threat were not able to do that – Freo look to have the same issue – if it isn’t bias that is stopping you seeing this pretty simple premise you comprehend less than I gave you credit for.

              • Roar Guru

                May 18th 2017 @ 5:21pm
                Cat said | May 18th 2017 @ 5:21pm | ! Report

                The real question is there any team that isn’t better off playing an opponent who struggles to score? Obviously no. Makes the whole conversation kind of pointless.

              • May 18th 2017 @ 5:29pm
                Macca said | May 18th 2017 @ 5:29pm | ! Report

                Cat – a couple of things – some teams it doesn’t matter, they have the ability to score heavily and therefore aren’t impacted by their opponents ability to score as much, other teams have an ability to restrict any side to a manageable score – it’s a matter of degrees. At this stage in their development the blues have a good defensive structure but due to age and experience still have lapses that a dangerous forward unit can expose – the less dangerous the forward unit the less likely they will be exposed.

                Secondly – the point is relevant because we are talking about a specific game – Carlton V Fremantle and what will impact that result specifically – Fremantles lack of scoring power plays very directly to that.

                Third – the blues are the lowest scoring team in the comp and yet have racked up 3 wins – so there are at least 3 teams who weren’t better off playing a low scoring side.

              • Roar Guru

                May 18th 2017 @ 8:56pm
                AdelaideDocker said | May 18th 2017 @ 8:56pm | ! Report

                After all of this bickering this’ll probably be the week where Freo begins to score freely, and heavily, aye…

                Well, I can always hope 😉

              • Roar Guru

                May 19th 2017 @ 12:22am
                Dalgety Carrington said | May 19th 2017 @ 12:22am | ! Report

                I love you Macca, I mean you’ve fit in so many chapters from your playbook in this small little space:

                Ad hominem (“personal offence/bias” lines);
                Quibbling (impression/assumption…gold);
                Misframing (shifting to Freo’s scoring power, instead of your dud stat);
                Flogging a dead parrot (walked right past a chance to move it on and instead doubled down and tried to breath life into a flaccid lifeless nag of an argument);
                And maybe a slight bit of self-refereeing to finish off on (with your “more credit” guff).


              • May 19th 2017 @ 9:12am
                Macca said | May 19th 2017 @ 9:12am | ! Report

                Dalgety – seems I did give you far too much credit if you think somehow I am “misframing” by focusing on Freo’s scoring power when that is the central tenant to my point – I think the blues are a real chance against Freo because Freo are the 16th lowest scoring team, to support this I point to the fact that the blues 3 wins have all come against the 3 lowest scoring teams they have played – pretty simple really and as I said almost too obvious.

                As for the rest, an impression is very different to an assumption, your actions influence an impression, and if you weren’t taking personal offence you would have taken the many chances to “walk right past” a pretty an objection statement instead of reaching for the defibrillators.

      • Roar Rookie

        May 18th 2017 @ 2:28pm
        FreoFan said | May 18th 2017 @ 2:28pm | ! Report

        I am definitely not underestimating Carlton at all this year Macca! Last year I thought we would beat them in round 5 to get our season up and running but it turned into an absolute disaster with Fyfe’s leg compounding the loss! That in turn got your season started and you went on a 5 game winning streak if I recall correctly.

        Aside from the thumping from Port, Carlton have been very competitive this season and have a lot of upside. As you said, both teams don’t score heavily so I don’t think either side will break away too easily and it should be close for most of the day. The current forecast is 95% chance of some rain in the morning so depending on how long that hangs around it might be even lower scoring…. Hoping the rain stays away for the game though as my seat is only partially shielded from the elements!

        Freo by 4 goals.

    • May 18th 2017 @ 2:51pm
      dave said | May 18th 2017 @ 2:51pm | ! Report

      I hope the Freo boys remember last years loss against Carlton and come out and destroy the Blues.
      But I’m a little bit nervous,that loss last year was harsh.That point when you know your finals chances are finished and you spend the rest of the year confused because want your team to win but know that every loss will help you gain a higher draft pick.

      • May 18th 2017 @ 2:56pm
        Macca said | May 18th 2017 @ 2:56pm | ! Report

        I hope the Freo boys are ready for Alex Silvagni when he remembers last year!

        • May 18th 2017 @ 3:58pm
          dave said | May 18th 2017 @ 3:58pm | ! Report

          Always liked Silvangi he got a seriously rough trot at Freo.How hard would it be mentally when Zac Dawson is getting picked ahead of you?

          • May 18th 2017 @ 4:02pm
            Macca said | May 18th 2017 @ 4:02pm | ! Report

            It would take real strength of character to deal with, he has definitely played like a man who has something to prove the last few weeks.

            The thing that has really surprised me with him is his speed – 3 weeks in a row his has laid massive run down tackles on small forwards who had quite a head start on him.

          • May 18th 2017 @ 9:20pm
            Don Freo said | May 18th 2017 @ 9:20pm | ! Report

            Alex was another Freo player out injured most of the year. When he was fit, he played.

            • Roar Guru

              May 19th 2017 @ 9:12am
              Steve J said | May 19th 2017 @ 9:12am | ! Report

              It’s good to see SCOS get a decent run again, definitely should have been selected ahead of Dawson.

              Imagine he’ll get Taberner (which would be a win for the Blues, but Tabs has got a tank to run all day) or McCarthy, which will be very entertaining to watch.

              Expect him to be warmly received back at Freo, a bit of a fan favourite just for his loyalty and effort … that and he whacked an Eagle!

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