While Lions fans admit their squad is facing a momentous task, they’re quietly – or loudly, depending on the town and country – confident of a series win.
How do I know this? I reached out to mates in England, Ireland, Wales and Scotland and tasked them with getting opinions at their local rugby pub.
On average, eight out of ten Lions fans are sure they’ll score a big, fat upset.
The reasons for the pre-celebrations is mainly the strength and depth of their squad.
The few naysayers are mindful that the All Blacks are an established team, and the Lions are not, but that’s been brushed aside. There’s plenty of time to gel with six games before the first Test at Eden Park, the optimists claim.
But Eden Park is near-unbreachable, it was pointed out – the All Blacks have lost at the hallowed venue just once in 47 Tests.
That stat is about to change, was the cheery reply.
And the second Test in Wellington? Will the Lions master the swirling winds of the Cake Tin where New Zealand are 17 and 2? Maybe not, the Lions fans admitted, but they’ll win the third Test back at Eden Park, partly because it has room for 20,000 manic Brit and Irish supporters, who’ll vocally lift their team to victory – if they can all get tickets.
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Nobody polled had any problem naming the 15 players they’d like to see start for the Lions, but they had all kinds of trouble coming up with more than a handful of players they thought the Kiwis will field.
Many of them don’t follow Super Rugby that closely, and they’d forgotten the names of several players in the side that lost to Ireland in Chicago.
They all seemed to know the established stars – Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams, Julian Savea – but after that it got a little hazy.
So, even though many of these fans aren’t too familiar with the probable All Black starters, they still maintain that the Lions will take the series 2-1.
At least that’s what they state, pint in hand, around nine in the evening at their local.
But what do they think lying awake in the small hours of the morning? Do they admit to themselves that playing the All Blacks in New Zealand and defeating them twice within 14 days is going to be a mite difficult? That it’s wishful thinking to believe that the Kiwis will be buried in their own backyard?
I wouldn’t be surprised to find that, along with a large bump in beer sales in Britain and Ireland, there’s also a sharp increase in sleeping pill prescriptions.
Goatee
Guest
'Farrell was playing 12 well before Jones came on the scene.' He was indeed, RF. Any ideas where you think Gatland, might play him in NZ? He's gone on record as saying he has selected him as a 10. We know already through his association with Wales that WG loves the crashball type 12 (a la, Jamie Roberts} and has selected others who can fulfill this role in his squad. IMO, Farrell will pose a bigger threat at 12, in tandem with Sexton. Or does he opt for a 'horses for courses' approach in the build up to the tests?
goatee
Guest
T/Man - I agree with reference to Vunipola and Faletau. Billy's loss is significant but may have also happened a month into the tour. Unfortunately, there will be other injuries... and on both sides. 'I might put together a Lions side once I do a bit more digging. Getting closer to the real thing, can’t wait.' If you do, I would be interested to read your take on things... and agreed, roll on June 3rd!
cuw
Guest
read this http://www.planetrugby.com/news/u20-championship-players-to-watch/ i think Enari is from BLUES :) " Tiaan Falcon (New Zealand) There may be no more reliable predictor of future success than the New Zealand U20 ten jersey. Whether you go to on to shine for the All Blacks like Beauden Barrett and Aaron Cruden, switch allegiances and move abroad like Gareth Anscombe and Tyler Bleyendaal, or simply light up Super Rugby like Damian McKenzie, the future is certainly bright and the latest man to fill that illustrious jersey is Falcon. The Hawke’s Bay fly-half is the son of former Maori All Black and Hurricanes back rower Gordon Falcon and he is ready to add his name to the Hurricanes’ enviable cadre of playmakers, that include the Barrett brothers and former New Zealand U20 Otere Black. Look for Falcon to feed off the front-foot ball that the impressive duo of Luke Jacobson and Isaia Walker-Leawere should give him, as well as his combination with dynamic scrum-half Ere Enari. "
Jemainok
Guest
Is it that time of year again already Fionn.
Jemainok
Guest
TM people thought Barrett was a bench warmer not long ago also. And they used that same argument for Cruden to start. Plus I recon Hansen have taken note of how much more dominating Savea is in contact this year. All that said I expect Cane to start.
Jemainok
Guest
Mounga would start before Mckenzie imo. He just leads his team so well for a young fulla.
Jemainok
Guest
He did get a free pass to the 2011 WC TM. He is also part of the AB leadership group, but as a blues fan I would say he is only still in the mix for the start due to the other candidates other than Crotty not putting in performances that say this is our IC or OC. But for me ALB and Fekitoa are ahead of him at the moment imo but so snall is the diffrences one great performance could change that.
Jemainok
Guest
OB ask Mounga how good Laumape was in that game.
jemainok
Guest
Because he wasn't in good form at the time, And NMS and Naholo were in great form that year. I personally think Piutau was unlucky not to board the plane instead of Naholo, but I can understand the NZRU decision to leave him out. After that WRC Dagg to his credit did something because the Dagg of 2016 wouldn't have been left out of that WC team imo. So form of himself and the form of others fighting for the same position is imo why Dagg wasn't at the 2015 RWC.
jemainok
Guest
CUW he hasn't boarded the plane for the under 20's so not totally left field to think someone has tapped him on the shoulder and said be ready.
cuw
Guest
really? how come he did not take |Dagg to world cup then?
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
Farrell was playing 12 well before Jones came on the scene. In age group England rugby, he played there with George Ford at flyhalf. At Saracens, Farrell started at 12 outside Charlie Hodgson at 10. It was an injury to Hodgson which gave him regular Premiership starts at 10. Even so, his first England cap was at 12 with Hodgson at 10. Lancaster always wanted to see how a Ford, Farrell, Tuilagi line-up would perform but injuries never allowed him to give it a go. Farrell is a fly half but he's shown throughout his career that he can do a job at inside centre.
Dopplerman
Guest
Have to agree on your thoughts on Mo unga. he's tricky not just because of his skillset but because he seems to read the game better than most .
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yeah fair comments, though it does sound a little too unstructured and un-Gatland like but he's faced this before. Vunipolas loss can't be underestimated as he was probably the key gain line breaker so understandable if his shoulders not 100%, he wouldn't have lasted long in that role. Faletau s not got the same impact but has other strengths. Guess we've thrashed the NZ side of this here, might put together a Lions side once I do a bit more digging. Getting closer to the real thing, can't wait.
goatee
Guest
T/Man - 'You don’t think that’s a conundrum for him?' No. As already indicated he will have a reasonable idea of who his test side will be, form and fitness permitting. As the tour unfolds the 'utility' players will provide the Lion's with additional options if required. Their inclusion in the squad will be considered a strength, rather than a weakness.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Most of that is well known stuff and it's mainly looking at what Oz do to cover players that I raise it. The difference here is that the NH sides seem to do it to have cake and eat it too, i.e. Have both Forde and Farrell on the field because both have similar skills for the type of game they want to play, where oz do it more to cover weaknesses, I.e. Pick Foley outside Quade to cover goalkicking. But regardless of why they do it, Gatland now needs to decide does he return them to their usual positions or does he take on the fact that Farrell is now a 12? You don't think that's a conundrum for him? Agree with the attrition of the players on tour. It's probably the biggest issue of all.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
That's pretty funny. I doubt any of those would even make an England starting 15. Coleman .....give me strength ......
goatee
Guest
T/Man - Methinks you're trying a little too hard here, possibly in light of earlier comments calling you out with regards to your fairly limited knowledge of the Lions players, plus NH rugby, in general. I'm not sure what point you're attempting to make in this post? 'Farrell was primarily a 10 before Jones got a hold of him'... He still is but can play at 12 as well. Itoje is a world-class lock with experience of playing at 6 and was asked to fill in there during the 6N. I will not bother responding to the rest of your 'analysis' regarding the other players you have listed, largely because of this particular gem in your final paragraph... 'if [Gats] moves everyone back to their old FAMILIAR positions we could have a right royal mess'. Absolutely priceless. Modern day Lion's tours are attritional by nature and it's not uncommon that by the time of the third test, the selection is made against the backdrop of 'last man standing'. This was the case in S Africa in 2009, where for example, Tommy Bowe was selected at 13, rather than on the wing. Of the three tours, NZ, is by far the toughest propostion, both mentally and physically.Therefore, selecting high quality players who add value, both on and off the pitch and who also have the ability to cover more than one position, is considered sound practice. With your extensive (and self-proclaimed) grasp of Lion's history, I'm not sure why this is considered an issue?
richard
Guest
Debatable whether the Crusaders/Hurricanes would beat full strength England and Ireland teams.
taylorman
Roar Guru
One of the other advantages I can see is Gatland has to deal with a lot of players who's coaches have been playing them out of position. Farrell was primarily a 10 before Jones go a hold of him. Itoje s been used at 6 a lot, and the other loosies Stander, Warburton, Faletau, and now Haskell have all been shuffling around at the back of the scrum. Losing a dead set specialist no. 8 means Stander or Faletau, or even Moriarty will need to play there. Liam Williams, who I prefer and is best suited to Fullback has been used by Gatland to make room for Halfpenny. If he still wants them both he'll have to put Halfpenny to wing with Williams, or not play the sides form Fullback, Hogg. ABs do a little moving but nothing compared to what either this Lions squad or even Oz, the masters of playing people out of position, do with their national sides. Playing those positions might have been ideal at the 6N level, but thrown together Gats now has to sort out who last played where. No doubt he's done that but if he moves everyone back their old familiar positions we could have a right royal mess. Lions concept...gotta love it.