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With the Lions Test coming up, there are many talking points surrounding the All Blacks.
Dan Coles’ fitness is up in the air, Sonny Bill Williams’ Super Rugby form is shaky, while many are hoping for a few bolters to get their chance to shine.
What to do with the big man?
Several players have raised their hands higher than Sonny Bill Williams over the past 18 months. On this season’s performances he barely makes New Zealand’s top ten. Still, the closer we get to the Lions series the more we hear his name in the mix.
As an outsider following Kiwi rugby it seems that Williams has some magical pull on several pundits, past and present coaches, and social media. They all hail him and say he will deliver the goods. Again.
To be fair, they have always been right so far. So why start doubting them now?
Almost every time I have met Aussie expats – who prefer rugby league – in south-east Asia over the last five years, I have asked them about Williams. Is he any good or is it all hype? Is he a special athlete? Will he make it in union?
I have not heard a negative word. They describe him as a top-class player, who would walk into any NRL starting 13. They all hope he comes back to the code.
Among my Kiwi friends, there is a lot less love for the big man. Some prefer other players, some are still annoyed that he walked straight into the All Blacks from the NRL, while some refuse to see him as anything else than a marketable product. Some really like him and some rate him, but they believe he gets too much special treatment.
What do you think about the big man? Should he start the first Test against the Lions?
Highly unlikely to start the first Test
If this Lions series is going to tick all the boxes for a potential best-ever Test series in the pro-era, the world’s best ever hooker has to be involved.
Correction, I mean the world’s best player – and hooker – has to be involved. I don’t mean to come down on Beauden Barrett, but on my list of the best players in the world from 2016, Dan Coles was number one (and Ben Smith number two).
Hooker is usually not a position young kids choose while playing rugby, it is a position your body and DNA chooses for you. But Coles has changed that mindset, and the position’s potential and status, forever. He brings a three-star full-course menu to the table every time. Any if anyone who reads this – and has a good rugby brain – can explain how teams prepare and defend against Coles, please share it in the comments.
Unfortunately, the clock is ticking very fast now, for him, the All Blacks, and the series. Even if all concussion syndromes disappear today, he has not been able to train much since March. With the uncertainty surrounding concussions and the expected rehab time, this could turn into a never-ending media saga throughout the series, which might distract and add pressure.
If the All Blacks are cruising through the series no one will care. But if the Lions win the first Test and Coles’ replacement is playing poorly, it could turn into an over-the-top story.
The Next Blacks have to wait in line
Tried and tested players are (almost) always selected ahead of a new potential black flash with a strong Super Rugby season in the bag. Players that have performed consistently for the All Blacks on the field, and showed the right characteristics off the field, can’t really be compared to hot rookies. They will always be ahead in the selection process.
And let us not forget that last year the All Blacks performed at a level never seen before. They re-established themselves with a big and very impressive bang. All those players that performed last year – or before that – will be trusted again. Anything else would be a huge surprise and a clear change of strategy from Steve Hansen, and that is very unlikely.
With this in mind, there will be very few bolters in the upcoming squad. All those hoping that Jordie Barrett – or other young guns – might start or play a big role from the bench in the first Test or during the rest of the series will be very disappointed. Unless injuries hit the All Blacks hard.
Schmidt the chosen one?
Ian Foster is yet to convince the majority of the Kiwi rugby public that he is the right man to replace Hansen. Despite strong backing from many within Kiwi rugby royalty, it is far from a done deal that he will be the chosen one.
Perhaps this just goes with the job itself, mixed up with a pinch Kiwi mentality that one shall not talk too big or show too much respect in advance. The fact that Foster has been a part of this amazing team for a long time and drilled the most potent backline in rugby ever is not enough.
To my surprise, on all polls I have seen about who should replace Hansen in 2020, Joe Schmidt has been the majority’s number one choice. Is this preference due to a flavour of the month syndrome? Or is this popularity something Schmidt has built over time?
What Hansen wants, Hansen gets?
The head coach opened the door for eligible All Blacks in Australian Super Rugby teams in the future, during an interview with Tony Veitch a couple of days ago.
Hansen suggested that only senior All Blacks could come into consideration under this new proposal. For example, if a player like Kieran Read can get ready for Test footy with only 80 minutes of rugby in the tank, he could just as well keep his high standards while playing for the Waratahs or the Western Force.
This could be a sweet thing to have in future negotiations when the north comes calling with top dollars and a different lifestyle. Living in Melbourne, Sydney, or Perth attracts many people from all over the world.
I wonder how much money players like Aaron Cruden, Steve Luatua – and many others already in Europe – could have earned playing in Australia? Is there any chance that they could have chosen to play in Australia instead of Europe if an offer like this had been offered?
With All Blacks money from New Zealand Rugby and an Australian Super Rugby marquee contract from the ARU (or more likely private investors), it might be possible to compete with English and French clubs for a while.
The upside for Hansen and the All Blacks is that they get a deeper, bigger and more experienced pool of players to select from and more money in their salary budget.
Hansen, of course, claimed that this is only his opinion and it is up to the board to make a final decision. But why would he discuss this in public now if it was not under consideration?
Saracens?! What about them Crusaders?
The Saracens forward block has received a lot of hype and support lately – from pundits, experts, and podcasters – to be involved in the Lions Test 23. It’s nderstandable, it is a solid and tested block to build the Lions pack around. But what about the All Black Crusaders pack?
If Jerome Kaino and Coles can’t make it in time, we could look at a forward pack with six starters – and a couple on the bench – from the Crusaders. Even if all the usual suspects get fit in time, their influence among the forwards will be massive with a possible eight forwards in the Test 23. Add Ryan Crotty and Israel Dagg, and we have ten players that could feature in the Test 23.
Many of the Christchurch boys will have tested themselves against the Lions in the warm-up game ahead of the series. They will have a feel for what kind of pressure the Lions pack can bring and how to hurt them. That can only be an advantage for the All Blacks.
With so many players from the same team – a team that just happens to be the form team in the world – the All Blacks’ chances to avoid rust and slow starts are very good. Probably better than ever before.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.