On paper, the New South Wales Blues actually have a stronger run-on side – and certainly a stronger match-day 17 – than the Maroons.
However, history shows Origin is all about who has the champion team rather than a team of champions. Look no further than the 1995 Queensland lineup. Even without their stars (out due to Super League war) they manufactured the greatest upset in Origin history to whitewash the series.
Billy Slater should be wearing the no.1 jersey, but Darius Boyd is still a better fullback than James Tedesco. The Broncos man is a better organiser and playmaker than his Wests Tigers counterpart and was the Maroons’ best in last year’s series triumph.
State of Origin Game 1 coverage
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» Where Game 1 will be won and lost
» Prichard: The Blues know they can win. It’s up to them to actually do it
» State of Origin expert tips and predictions
» Why Queensland will win
» Origin 1 margin, man of the match and first try scorer predictions
Cooper Cronk is the best halfback in the game who hasn’t been ruled out of Origin 1 with a dodgy shoulder. There are plenty who’d take him over Johnathan Thurston too, given both players’ form this season.
Cronk will own this, throwing flat balls to Darius Boyd to exploit the NSW fullbacks playing in the centres.
The talk in the Queensland camp is that Anthony Milford will start, but then again the Maroons could just be bluffing.
Let’s assume Michael Morgan is the man who’ll start. He’s no Johnathan Thurston, but Morgan would still walk into the Blues side on the back of his current form.
What also can’t be underestimated is home ground advantage.
It’s even bigger in the cauldron of Suncorp Stadium. The intimidation factor is real when you consider the Maroons have only lost one of their past nine matches at home (Game 1 2014).
Many experts are claiming this is New South Wales’ best chance to win in Queensland.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Surely by now we know NEVER to write off Queensland.
Tim Gore reminded us yesterday that the Maroons still have more than 100 extra games of Origin experience at their disposal.
They might have a weaker forward pack at their disposal, but Cronk and Smith’s outstanding kicking games and organisational play will make up for any deficit up front. Their combination with the rest of spine, honed over many years of playing together at club, state and international level, is the stuff New South Wales fans can only dream of.
Having a strong forward pack will only take you so far – you need the players to capitalise on the grunt work done up front. Queensland have them. New South Wales? I’m not so sure.
That’s not to say messrs Smith and Cronk have nothing to work with in their pack. Matt Gillett is the best second-rower in the game. Josh Papalii isn’t too far behind.
Dylan Napa has been something of a red-hot, red-headed wrecking ball for the Roosters this year, and Nate Myles always saves his best footy for when he’s wearing maroon on a Wednesday night.
Add in Josh McGuire at lock, and it’s not as if the Maroons are going to field a pack full of mugs.
The last time Mitchell Pearce played for the Blues in Brisbane, New South Wales suffered their worst ever loss.
There’s no chance this game is going to be a bloodbath of those proportions. But Pearce hasn’t shown he has what it takes to direct his team around the park successfully come Origin time. Smith and Cronk have.
Because of that, Game 1 is going to Queensland.
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