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State of Origin: Uncovering the true nature of home ground advantage

Griffo 09 new author
Roar Rookie
30th May, 2017
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Matt Moylan killed it on debut for the Kangaroos. (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Griffo 09 new author
Roar Rookie
30th May, 2017
2

The benefit of playing in front of a home crowd is a well-established factor in sporting events, which coupled with the fiercely tribal nature of State of Origin would seem like the ultimate in home ground advantages.

A quick analysis of home-and-away stats backs this up, with Queensland at 66 per cent and New South Wales at 59 per cent have great win rates at home (drawn matches discounted).

Given that Queensland have two home games this year they ought to have a huge advantage, however these simple home win rates don’t tell the full story.

Home Ground Advantage

Wins Losses Draws Win % Loss %
Queensland Home 35 18 1 66.0 34.0
New South Wales Home 26 18 1 59.1 40.9

(Win and Loss percentage discounts draws)

Since three-match series began in 1982, Queensland have had two home games in 17 of the series, 16 of which have had home-away-home format of this year (1982 was home-home-away for Queensland).

Of those 16 series Queensland has won 8, New South Wales 7, and one series was drawn. Including 1982 lifts Queensland to nine series. This does not indicate an overwhelming advantage to the home team.

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Queensland Home Series

Queensland Win New South Wales Win Draw Queensland Win percentage
Home-Away-Home 8 7 1 50
Home-Home-Away 1 0 0 100
Total 9 7 1 52.9

So what does this disparity between these stats and the overall home win percentage indicate? The conclusion I came to was that home ground advantage isn’t equal for all games in the series, and further analysis shows this to be the case.

As Game 1 this year is a Queensland home game, let’s look at Queensland’s home record in series openers. There have been 18 series openers in Brisbane, all of which have been played at Lang Park.

As it turns out Queensland are most vulnerable at home in Game 1, with Queensland and New South Wales level on nine wins each.

Game 1 – Queensland Home

Played Queensland Win New South Wales Win
18 9 9
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Game 2 this year is in Sydney, and this represents New South Wales’ best home record from any of the three series games.

Of the 18 Game 2 matches played in Sydney, five have been played at the SCG, four at the Sydney Football Stadium (Allianz), and nine at Stadium Australia (ANZ).

New South Wales have a winning record at all three venues, but especially so their current home ground, Stadium Australia, where they hold a 7-2 record. Their overall record in Game 2s at home is 13-5.

Game 2 – New South Wales Home

Venue Played NSW Win Queensland Win NSW Win percentage
SCG 5 3 2 60.0
SFS 4 3 1 75.0
Stadium Australia 9 7 2 77.8
Total 18 13 5 72.2

When up 1-0 New South Wales’ home record is excellent with six wins from seven games. When needing to level the series they’ve still been fairly strong, with seven wins from 11 games.

Game 2 – New South Wales Home – Series status

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Played NSW Win Queensland Win NSW Win percentage
New South Wales lead 1-0 7 6 1 85.7
New South Wales trail 0-1 11 7 4 63.6

Queensland perform a whole lot better in home Game 3s than home Game 1s. There have been 22 Game 3s in Brisbane, of which Queensland has won 14, New South Wales 7, and one draw.

21 of these have been played at Lang Park with 1 game at the QE II ground in 2001 (ANZ Brisbane) which was won by Queensland.

Of these matches, ten have been deciders, including the match at QE II in 2001. Queensland has won seven, New South Wales two, and one was drawn.

This shows that Queensland’s record in home Game 3s is even better in deciders.

Game 3 – Queensland Home

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Played Queensland Win NSW Win Draw Queensland Win percentage
All Games 22 14 7 1 66.7
Series Decider 10 7 2 1 77.8

(Win percentage discounts draws)

Analysis of these stats should give Blues fans hope. Despite the fact they play twice in Queensland, history shows it is still very possible for them to win the series.

To do this they will have to win at least one of these away games. The stats show that their best chance of doing this will be in Game 1 where they have a 50 per cent record.

Win on Wednesday and they will have actually outperformed Queensland in Queensland for series openers.

Being up 1-0 in the series is also when New South Wales have performed best in home Game 2s.

When they haven’t won Game 1 away their performance at home in Game 2s is still very good but Queensland tend to have more of a chance in these years.

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Come Game 3, Blues fans will want to have the series wrapped up. Although they have managed win series deciders in Brisbane, these have been rare occurrences as Queensland are notoriously difficult to beat in home deciders.

For Queensland it seems that winning Game 1 is also critical. Their Game 2 record in Sydney is poor yet improves slightly when they’re ahead in the series. Winning Game 1 gives them two bites at the cherry.

It may seem obvious to say that winning Game 1 is critical as mathematically the team winning Game 1 has a 75 per cent chance of winning the series, however this format of Queensland playing at home in Games 1 and 3 the series opener has been even more important.

In 16 series, the team winning Game 1 has won the series 13 times and only lost twice, with 1 drawn series.

Queensland Home-Away-Home

Wins Series Loses Series Draws Series Series Win percentage *Series Win percentage
Game 1 Winner 13 2 1 81.25 86.7

(* Discounts draw)

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If you didn’t already think so, I think it’s fair to say that there’s a lot on the line on Wednesday night!

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