The battle for supremacy between New South Wales and Queensland recommences at ANZ Stadium tonight, in what will be the 110th State Of Origin match.
From the previous matches, Queensland have won 58 times, New South Wales have won 49 times, and there have been two draws.
The Blues head into tonight’s match looking to claim their 14th series victory overall, and just their second series victory since 2005, while the Maroons are out to square the ledger after their heavy Game 1 loss, and keep their chances of claiming an 11th series victory in 12 years.
NSW, as you would expect, have made no changes to the team that completed 36 from 39 sets, keeping the Maroons scoreless in the second half.
Queensland, on the other-hand, have made seven changes, with Corey Oates, Justin O’Neill, Anthony Milford, Nate Myles, Sam Thaiday, Aidan Guerra, and Jacob Lillyman.
In come debutants Valentine Holmes, Jarrod Wallace, Coen Hess and Tim Glasby, as well as Billy Slater, Johnathan Thurston, and Gavin Cooper.
Cameron Smith will captain Queensland for the 20th time in his 41st State Of Origin appearance, moving ten behind the great Wally Lewis, who captained Queensland on 30 occasions.
The battle will be decided through the middle of the park, where NSW dominated Queensland in Game One, racking up 1801 metres from 207 hit-ups (at an average of 8.7 metres per hit-up), compared to Queensland’s 1663 metres from 202 hit-ups (at an average of 8.23 metres).
Queensland will also be looking to target the edge of James Maloney, Jarryd Hayne, and Blake Ferguson edge, who made a combined 31 tackles from 43 attempts in Game 1. However, Mitchell Pearce, Josh Dugan, and Brett Morris didn’t fare that much better in the opening game of the series, making a combined 41 tackles from 53 attempts.
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In 13 out of the last 19 Origin matches, the total match points score has been under 40 points. Since the four-point try was introduced in 1983, 27 of 34 second-game encounters have had fewer than 40 points total – but this hasn’t happened in the last two years.
In terms of the margin between the two teams, 30 of the last 40 matches have had a 1-12 margin, including in the last three Game 2 encounters. In fact, 25 of the 34 Game 2 encounters in State Of Origin history have been decided by that margin.
You sense that the Maroons greats of Slater, Thurston, Cronk and Smith have one left in them. If NSW are going to win the series, they must do it tonight!
I am tipping the Maroons to win by six points.
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