2017 AFL season: Round 15 preview

A blockbuster round of matches await us this weekend, with a Saturday night showdown between premiership contenders the GWS Giants and Geelong Cats set to highlight the round.

Other matches will see two in-form teams, Melbourne and the Sydney Swans, clash under the Friday night lights, while after having his 300th-game milestone delayed by injury, Gary Ablett Jr will toast the occasion at home against North Melbourne on Saturday night.

Pride is on the line when Hawthorn and Collingwood face off at the MCG on Sunday, while Essendon will be hoping to put last week’s heartbreak behind it when they face the Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium.

Here is your full preview of Round 15.

Melbourne versus Sydney Swans
A large crowd is likely when one of this year’s biggest improvers, Melbourne, host the in-form Sydney Swans at the MCG this Friday night.

The Dees’ pursuit of a first finals berth since 2006 continued last week when they upset the West Coast Eagles in Perth last Saturday night, winning by three points despite not having any of Jesse Hogan, Nathan Jones or Jack Watts in the side.

The win was marshaled by defender Tom McDonald, who kicked five goals, while Jack Viney, leading the side solo for the first time in Jones’ absence, played with a badly hurt shoulder for most of the match.

Their fourth consecutive win has them in fifth place, with a chance to crack the top four if they can continue their impressive form under Simon Goodwin.

But standing in the way of them and a fifth straight win are the Sydney Swans, who pulled off the great escape to beat Essendon by a point last Friday night.

The Swans looked dead for all money when they trailed by 19 points with less than five minutes left, but pulled back three majors, including one after the final siren, to keep their season alive.

Recent history is also in their favour, the Swans having won the last five meetings against the Dees by an average of 51.2 points.

However, the Dees side they face this Friday night will be a different one compared to years past.

In fact, the Dees haven’t beaten the Swans since Round 17, 2010, when they won by 73 points in what was the worst defeat the Swans suffered under former coach Paul Roos.

The two sides also fought out a draw in the opening round of 2011.

While Simon Goodwin’s men will fancy themselves of ending their hoodoo against the Swans, I just think the red-and-whites’ form is too hard to ignore at this point.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by six points.

Western Bulldogs versus West Coast Eagles
Another road assignment presents the West Coast Eagles another good chance to prove that they can indeed perform away from Western Australia.

The Eagles are mired in somewhat of a form slump, having won just once (against Geelong in Round 13) since defeating the Western Bulldogs in Round 8.

Their cause has not been helped the absence of Josh Kennedy, who will again miss due to a calf injury which has kept him sidelined for a month.

Captain Shannon Hurn and Mark LeCras will also miss the flight across the Nullarbor, further harming their chances of scoring an upset win away from home.

On the other hand, the Western Bulldogs ended a week from hell by narrowly defeating North Melbourne by a point at home last week.

The defending premiers had come under all sorts of criticism following their heavy loss to Melbourne the previous week, some suggesting that they failed to protect defender Jason Johannisen sufficiently after he became the target of a social media post by Tomas Bugg on match day.

While they did lose their last meeting to the Eagles by eight points, their recent record against them is still strong, having won four of their last seven against Adam Simpson’s men dating back to late-2013.

The comforts of playing at Etihad Stadium for the third consecutive week should bank them another four premiership points here against a side that has been poor on the road in 2017.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 12 points.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Carlton versus Adelaide Crows
Another big test looms for Carlton this Saturday afternoon when they face the Adelaide Crows at the MCG this Saturday afternoon.

The Blues have without a doubt become one of the most exciting clubs to watch this year, winning five matches as their rebuild gains momentum.

This includes wins over traditional rivals Essendon and Collingwood, as well as that of ladder leaders the GWS Giants.

However, after a strong start last week, they went down to Richmond at the MCG last Sunday, further denting their dream of playing finals.

On the other hand, the Adelaide Crows, after starting the season with six straight wins, have dropped four of their last seven matches to drop to second on the ladder.

Their form slump has raised questions as to whether they are “tough enough” to win a premiership, their long-suffering fans not willing to tolerate another wasted chance in September.

The clash against the Blues, which will be the seventh consecutive time the Crows have faced them in Melbourne, will provide the club with some incentive to bounce back and ramp up the pressure on the GWS Giants at the pointy end of the ladder.

Another win will continue to add to their healthy percentage of 136.8.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 32 points.

Gold Coast Suns versus North Melbourne
After having his 300th game delayed by a week due to a calf injury, Gold Coast Suns champion Gary Ablett Jr will finally toast the milestone when his side faces North Melbourne at home this Saturday night.

His withdrawal preceded what would become a poor performance from the club without their former captain, as they went down to St Kilda by 32 points at Etihad Stadium.

Their inconsistent form this year has placed coach Rodney Eade under increasing pressure, amid speculation the veteran mentor could be moved on at season’s end.

The Suns stayed with the Saints for the first half, but capitulated after half-time to crash to their eighth loss of the season, drifting them further away from the eight.

North Melbourne, meanwhile, could consider themselves extremely unlucky to have gone down to the Western Bulldogs by a solitary point last Saturday night.

An unaware Shaun Higgins had a shot at goal stripped from him after Jake Stringer tackled him from behind nearing three-quarter-time, while Ben Brown had a late goal annulled due to an illegal shepherd from a teammate.

It marked their second one-point loss this season, and made them the first team since themselves in 2013 to lose two matches in such heartbreaking fashion.

And while they did beat the Suns in their previous meeting, in Round 6, facing them on their home turf will be a different proposition altogether, and the hosts will without a doubt be spurred on by the occasion of one of this millennium’s greatest players playing his 300th game at home.

Prediction: Gold Coast Suns by 10 points.

GWS Giants versus Geelong Cats
Saturday night’s clash between the GWS Giants and Geelong Cats could serve as a potential finals preview, if the two teams’ form this year is anything to go by.

Despite a horrific injury toll, which this week claimed first-year sensation Tim Taranto for up to two months, the Giants currently top the ladder having won ten of their thirteen matches.

Having been upset by Carlton by a point in the week before their bye, Leon Cameron’s men hit back hard by defeating the Brisbane Lions by ten goals at the Gabba last Saturday night.

But Cameron wouldn’t have been happy with his side’s final-quarter lapse, after they had led by 74 points early in the final quarter. It could prove to be the difference as to where they finish come Round 23.

On the other hand, the Cats overcame the loss of Joel Selwood, and a plucky Fremantle side, to win by two points in a thriller at Simonds Stadium last Sunday.

Selwood came off second-best in a head clash with Docker Hayden Ballantyne in the first minute of the match, and after the Cats fell behind by as much as 34 points in the second quarter, they appeared to be in trouble before they rallied to win their ninth game of the season.

The 2007 Rising Star winner is now facing a race against the clock to be fit for the showdown against the Giants.

While the Cats have dominated the head-to-head, winning five of the six matches, the Giants did win the corresponding match by 13 points in Canberra last year.

A week after being upset by Melbourne, the Giants made a statement with Steve Johnson and Shane Mumford tormenting their old side on the field and on the scoreboard.

With the position of the two clubs on the ladder, another healthy five-figure crowd is expected at Spotless Stadium, with the possibility of a record for a non-Sydney Derby at the ground this Saturday night.

Prediction: GWS Giants by 11 points.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Port Adelaide versus Richmond
Another blockbuster match on Saturday night sees Port Adelaide host Richmond in the City of Churches.

Under pressure heading into this season after two consecutive seasons without finals, Ken Hinkley has delivered promising results for the Power, who currently sit fourth on the ladder with eight wins and six losses.

Last week they easily produced their best win away from home, defeating Collingwood by 31 points in what was Paddy Ryder’s 200th AFL game.

This week, they return home to prepare for what shapes as a potential finals preview when they face Richmond for the only time in the season.

The Tigers have been the hard luck story of the year, losing four of their five matches by less than ten points, but last week enjoyed somewhat of a reversal in fortune, overcoming a slow start and a determined Carlton side to win by 26 points at the MCG.

They’ll be hoping that their second trip to the City of Churches ends much better than their first did – it was back in Round 6 when they put in their worst effort for the year, losing to the Adelaide Crows by 76 points.

Recent history is also against Damien Hardwick’s men – they’ve lost three of their last four matches against the Power, and this Saturday night’s clash falls exactly one year to the day since they suffered a 38-point loss in their last meeting, also at the Adelaide Oval.

At home, Port should prove too strong as they close in on their first double chance in a decade.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 24 points.

Essendon versus Brisbane Lions
The first match on Sunday afternoon will see Essendon lock horns with the Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium.

Given where the Bombers were this time last year, the club was expected to improve this year and they indeed have, winning six matches which is double of what they achieved in 2016.

However, they blew a huge chance last Friday night when they lost to the Sydney Swans by a solitary point at the SCG, despite leading by 19 points with less than five minutes to go.

Veteran Brendon Goddard analysed those fatal last minutes on Channel Nine’s Footy Classified on Monday night, saying that he played on from his kick-in in the hope he would gain some yardage beyond the defensive 50, only to have his kick smothered by Tom Papley.

They’ll be keen to bounce back against a Brisbane Lions side which is performing much better than their ladder position suggests.

They may have lost by 60 points to the ladder-leading GWS Giants at home last week, but they did stay with the title contenders for most of the match, something that would have pleased coach Chris Fagan.

Two weeks after young forward Josh Schache re-signed with the club, their highest pick in last year’s draft, Hugh McCluggage, became the second Lion to receive a Rising Star nomination for his performance against the Giants.

It is proof that after over a decade in the doldrums, that there is light at the end of the tunnel for long-suffering fans, some of whom may be too young to even remember the club’s hat-trick of premierships between 2001-03.

While the Lions will again fancy themselves against the Bombers, the hosts should prevail in this one.

Prediction: Essendon by 18 points.

Hawthorn versus Collingwood
It was not so long ago that matches between Hawthorn and Collingwood were on top of the must-watch list of matches in a given round.

But with both sides currently languishing at the wrong end of the ladder, Sunday’s clash has become one where they will be battling for pride, rather than to keep their finals hopes alive.

The Hawks’ fall from grace has come as a surprise this year, after they had offloaded club champions Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis during the last off-season, in a bid to stay in the top half of the ladder. The departure of well-respected manager Chris Fagan also hit the club hard.

On the field, they have only won five matches, but did score an upset win over the ladder-leading Adelaide Crows at the Oval last Thursday night.

This has given them some momentum going into Sunday’s clash against Collingwood, who like the Hawks have also won five matches for the season, one of which was against the Hawks in Round 9.

The Pies disappointed at home last week, going down to Port Adelaide by 31 points at home in a result which will do little to ease the pressure on Nathan Buckley, who is increasingly likely to be moved on at season’s end.

However, he can breathe easy this week knowing that they have a strong chance of beating the Hawks for just the second time under his reign, after coming from 43 points down to win by 18 back in Round 9.

Had the Pies not won that match, then they’d be lower than 13th (their current ladder position) and Buckley would’ve been under more pressure than he is now.

Captain Scott Pendlebury will bring up his 250th AFL game on Sunday, in the process becoming the first player drafted from the 2005 draft to do so.

Can they repeat the dose? I think so.

Prediction: Collingwood by 12 points.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Fremantle versus St Kilda
The final match of Round 15 will see Fremantle host St Kilda in a clash which will prove crucial to both clubs’ finals hopes.

The Dockers will be wondering where it all went wrong in the final quarter of their clash against the Geelong Cats at Simonds Stadium last week.

They had led by 34 points deep in the second quarter, and then by 19 points at three-quarter-time, but inexplicably capitulated from that point on to lose by two points to a side which had lost their skipper in the first minute.

However, they will have another good chance to get their season back on track when they face a St Kilda side that has been extremely poor on the road this season.

Of the three times the Saints have travelled interstate this season, on two occasions have they come home empty-handed.

This includes their 19-point loss to the West Coast Eagles in Round 2, in which they led for the majority of the match only to suffer yet another defeat in the west.

Their recent record against the Dockers is strong, though, having won three of the last four meetings against them, all at Etihad Stadium.

But facing them in Perth is a different proposition altogether and the Saints will know what they are up against on Sunday, having not won in the west since mid-2011.

In the end, the Dockers’ home ground advantage should get them home in this one.

Prediction: Fremantle by eight points.