For those who like to analyse trends in the game, the notion of ‘forward dominance’ is one which attracts a great deal of interest. That notion has changed considerably from the days of the 1970s and ’80s to the current, professional era.
Corris Thomas, the well-known IRB statistical consultant, reckons that the proportion of scrums to breakdowns, which he calculated at 2:3 in the mid-80s, had changed to 2:9 by the turn of the millennium, and now runs at 2:15 in the current era.
Where front rows were direct contact for a full eleven minutes of the famous 1973 game between the Barbarians and All Blacks, during the 2007 World Cup that average was down to a mere 154 seconds.
His study revealed that, when the number of free kicks and penalties were deducted from the average of 15 scrums per game, there were only eight bits of usable possession likely to be made available, in total, to the two scrum-halves during a game.
Corris came to the conclusion that the scrum had a much-diminished actual role in the game, but the new reality was often slow to be reflected in the attitudes of modern coaches – most of whom had, after all, been brought up in the amateur game.
The exceptions to the rule were (1) the evident strength needed at five-metre scrums either near your own goal-line or that of the opposition, and (2) the ability to influence refereeing perception and win the penalty or free-kick lottery that can derive from scrums.
This new understanding received a vigorous road-test in two big internationals over the weekend, between Australia and Italy at Suncorp Stadium, and the first Test between the British and Irish Lions and New Zealand in Auckland.
At Eden Park, both sides won all of their own scrums (eight by the All Blacks and four by the Lions), while the All Blacks lost five of their own lineout throws – a 61.5 per cent win rate compared to the Lions’ 92.9 per cent (13 out of 14) percentage.
In the old days, that would have been a conclusive victory for the Lions tight forwards. Not so in the modern game. The critical evidence was buried deep in the ball-carrying and breakdown stats:
| Team | Forward ball-carries | Total Metres | Average metres-per-carry |
| New Zealand | 83 | 210 | 2.53 |
| British and Irish Lions | 52 | 99 | 1.9 |
Based on the work of their forwards, the All Blacks kept the ball at 127 of their own 131 breakdowns, for a 97 per cent retention rate and overall 61 per cent possession ‘dominance’.
By way of contrast, in the backs, the Lions came out statistically on top, with a 5.1-metre average-per-carry compared to New Zealand’s 4.1.
Therefore, despite the memorable visual impact of the All Blacks’ one dominant scrum of the game, which led to their second try scored by Rieko Ioane, it was their domination on the carry and in the contact zone, not at set-piece, which gave real meaning to ‘forward dominance’ on the day.
The scrums from the Australia-Italy match also supported Corris Thomas’ argument about the relative importance of five-metre scrums and the need to win the ‘penalty lottery’.
The Wallabies conceded seven penalties (and one yellow card for persistent infringement by Toby Smith) at scrum time without winning any themselves, and four of those (including the yellow card) occurred at scrums five metres out from either goal-line.
At the same time, the game included four tries from scrums (two to each side), and three of those came from first phase:
Three of the tries derived from scrums where the referee ‘saved’ the set-piece, twice by allowing the ball to be played at collapsed scrums (35th and 44th minutes), once by allowing a quick play-the-ball after a free kick had been awarded (14th minute).
At the penalty scrums, the Wallabies had real problems down their left side, whether it was starter Scott Sio or his replacement Toby Smith packing against the magnificently-named Azzurri tight-head prop Simone Ferrari.
Ferrari’s ability to maintain a dynamic low position, and then move inside off the loosehead’s shoulder, forcing either a hinge or a collapse, magnified the scrum’s importance in the match as a whole.
At Australia’s very first feed, Ferrari won the battle of refereeing perception by forcing the scrum forward on his side:
Technically Ferrari has popped out of the top of the set-piece first, but because the Azzurri scrum has moved forward half a metre and the Wallabies have been unable to hook the ball back from the tunnel, it is Sio who is penalised for pulling out of the scrum and dropping to his knees.
As so often happens, the first scrum sets the pattern of decision-making for the rest of the game. At the first set of scrums near the Wallaby goal-line, Ferrari is very flat and low, but Sio’s shoulders are marginally higher than his hips. At the same time, his left (binding) arm is low and this gives Ferrari the opportunity to manipulate his body height and angle.
As Ferrari shifts inside in the second frame, Sio’s hips start to ride up and kick out, his left leg straightens and his head drops lower. He has lost all dynamism, all the flex and power in his body shape. Ferrari is able to continue his ‘journey’ through on to hooker Stephen Moore unimpeded.
Matters did not improve when Toby Smith came to replace Scott Sio in the 48th minute – if anything they got rather worse. As soon as he trotted onto the field, Smith suffered the same woes that had befallen his teammate:
It is very much the same picture as Sio’s – shoulders slightly out of the same plane as the hips, a low left arm bind which forces instability and a ‘hinge’ when the pressure is applied by Ferrari.
Two Italian feeds later, and the degree to which Toby Smith’s tribulations had increased were obvious:
Smith’s hips are once again on a lower plane than his shoulders, and his head has worked its way further outside the set-piece to ease the pressure from Ferrari.
This is a sign that the loosehead can no longer defend his hooker adequately, and that the opposing tighthead is getting an easy ride. All he can do is pull further away from Moore as the pressure increases – his head is resting on Ferrari’s right hip and his own backside has drifted out to the point where it can no longer transmit the force applied by the men behind him.
The final and unkindest cut of all arrived in the 74th minute, at a scrum close to the Australian goal-line.
Here Smith has his head in the scrum, but it is positioned directly underneath his shoulders and he is bent double with his chin stuck to his chest. His spine is nowhere near being a straight line from the base, to the top of his neck, and there is nowhere else for Smith to go but down under pressure.
You can almost feel the blowtorch heat coming on in the second frame as his chin is welded down onto his chest!
Having already warned Sio and Smith so many times for repeated infringements, referee Matthew Carley had no option but to send the latter to the bin. With Italy only 28-27 behind on the scoreboard at the time, it could easily have cost the Wallabies the game.
Summary
In Corris Thomas’ view, the scrum has diminished in importance as ball-in-play time has grown and the ratio of scrums to breakdowns has changed in the professional era.
Now it ranks behind several other elements of ‘forward dominance’ such as the ability to claim the ball at lineouts and restarts, and above all, the ability to win collisions and control the contact zone.
You can see his point. In the first Test at Eden Park, the All Blacks didn’t achieve superiority in the scrum except for one example, and they lost 40 per cent of their own lineout throws, but they dominated the breakdown and the area of the Lions’ defence they had selected to attack with their forwards (the first four defenders closest to the ruck) on the carry.
That was forward dominance and it was not related to set-piece.
The ratio of scrums to breakdowns in the Australia-Italy game was much higher – one scrum to every seven breakdowns as opposed to 1:17 at Eden Park.
The game was slower, the quality was lower and the scrum came back into its own – particularly with play encouraged from broken set-pieces (collapses) and a high proportion of scrums near the goal-line.
The value of having a Ferrari rather than a Ford was fully pointed in those situations, and the Wallabies need to find some models with more horsepower under the bonnet urgently if they are to contest the forthcoming Rugby Championship on even terms.
MitchO
Guest
My apologies for the spelling. The Welsh ability to sing (in tune) is truly a force of nature. I thought it was an exaggeration until I saw Cardiff play Toulouse at the Arms Park. Couldn't even hear the words to Land of Our Fathers, they just appeared in the air like telepathy. That is sporting greatness. Score doesn't matter much after a bit of that - but Cardiff did win that game.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Later in life my mate picked Cwm Ronda as one of his wedding hymns and the whole rugby club put their church song books down and just belted it out. Priceless - thanks for that Mitch and good know Cwm Rhonddha is being sung somewhere other than the valleys!
MitchO
Guest
The leverage really does help and thinking about lines of force. I did ju jitsu when I was quite young and it is great for the quasi wrestling knowledge and also for learning how to fall over without hurting yourself. The rolling is different from gymnastics rolling. In gym you are not rolling coz you tripped or because some big guy shoved you. Good instructors drummed the rolls and flat falls into muscle memory and it has served me well ever since as a life skill. Including falling off a bicycle and the like. You don't want to do too much cross training but some specific sports/physical endeavours are a good short cut to working on a specific area of improvement. I read about a rugby league team which has a specialist yoga coach but due to macho considerations they can't call it yoga so they tell the team they are doing "power stretching". I took up yoga in middle age. it would have helped me tremendously when I was younger. For the mine though the greatest neglected skill in rugby in Australia is singing. My school tour to the UK we got sang out of the pub.. every pub. Second time was with my uni but we had a well travelled Queenslander who knew the importance of a team song book and team practice. Didn't play much rugby before leaving but spent a bit of time with beers and song books in hand. Later in life my mate picked Cwm Ronda as one of his wedding hymns and the whole rugby club put their church song books down and just belted it out.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
I believe Mike Cron used to employ ballet and wrestling for core strength in the F/R Mitch; Joe Moody is an ex Judo player, and Charlie Faulkner (who played on the opposite side to Graham Price) was a Welsh Open judo champion. Knew leverage inside out.
Mitcho
Guest
Nick I had a mate who was a champion junior fencer so his coaching staff made him get ballet lessons. Tight five should go to wrestling school. I played at uni with some American college wrestlers on exchange who signed up for rugby coz it was tough. Those guys were soooo strong and the winger arvi didn't know how to tackle so he'd plant his face into the fend, hang onto the ball carrier and eventually bring him to ground. Another americAn played in Montana uni. Benched 140 kg didn't mind pain. Didn't have much sophisticated rugby skill but I loved him for what he could and considered myself his babysitter if I can say without demeaning what he gave us.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
That sounds like a sensible arrangement doesn't it? Give Stiles some support so we can see what promise he shows under optimal conditions. Then decide. It does look increasingly as if the Rebs' heads are on the block doesn't it?
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
As for the poor bloody looseheads – we need to get the ref’s seeing the whole picture rather than just the outside – it is the tighthead who sets the angle – and if he’s not square there’s not much the loosehead can do about it – in my day it was not so much of a problem as you’d just follow him round and then drill in almost on your own to kill his momentum so things evened out. So if they are not going to allow that then looseheads are always going to be the poor cousins. A lot of truth here R & B. The season before last EPL refs went crazy penalising LH's for 'angling' and you could almost see their opponents laughing at their good luck! The best scrum refs try to keep the TH as straight as possible for as long as possible - certainly at the feed, after that in T14 they'll let the TH begin to work his way inside. That I feel is a reasonable compromise. If the LH is already going forward when the TH begins to shift then the LH may well win the pen instead.
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, I thought you might find the below article of interest. It's in line with what you have been saying that Nick Stiles needs. Queensland are understood to have pulled off a major coup by recruiting Melbourne Rebels head coach Tony McGahan as a coaching support for Reds boss Nick Stiles in Super Rugby. Following a report in The Australian that McGahan intended to quit the Melbourne club at the end of the season, the Rebels issued a statement on June 15 confirming that the club and McGahan had indeed agreed to part ways. He will be leaving the Rebels as the longest-serving and most successful coach in the club’s history. He coached them to four wins in his first season, 2014, before winning seven games in each of the 2015 and 2016 seasons, and early indications were that the Rebels would be genuine contenders to win the Australian conference this year. Indeed, had they won their tally of games for each of the last two seasons, they would have romped home. From the outset, however, Melbourne was decimated by injury and they currently sit second last on the table, with a win and a draw from 13 matches. It was thought initially McGahan might venture back to Europe, possibly to the Munster club where he coached from 2005 to 2012, taking them to the final of the Celtic League against Leinster in the 2010-11 season, but indications are that he has decided to return to his native Queensland. The QRU issued a statement insisting that, as it does every year, a review of the Reds program would be conducted at the end of the season. “As such, it would be premature and inappropriate to comment on speculation or any potential changes or additions to the coaching staff until the season is over and the review has been completed,” the statement read. It is expected that McGahan will be given a title commensurate with his enormous experience — he returned to Australia from Munster to be Robbie Deans’ defence coach in 2012 with the Wallabies — but in effect he will become Stiles’s right-hand man and mentor. Precisely where that would leave Stiles’s present assistant coaches, defence coach Jason Gilmore and attack coach Shane Arnold, is yet to be established. Certainly Stiles and McGahan are old friends and would be able to operate together without any friction. Indeed, they would often telephone each other on a Sunday morning throughout the season to compare notes with how their Super Rugby teams had performed the previous night. More often than not, they ended up consoling each other. There is no question that the malignant uncertainty surrounding the future of the Rebels as the Australian Rugby Union attempted all season to cull one of his five Super Rugby clubs — Melbourne and the Western Force quickly became the only contenders for the axe — eventually took its toll on McGahan. But it is clear that the strain has been felt across a much wider front. One of the club’s best administrators, Steve Mitchell, the general manager (commercial), is understood to have submitted his resignation, so too the highly-regarded head of performance Damian Mednis, while two of the club’s senior Wallabies, Sean McMahon and Toby Smith, both are believed to be heading overseas, McMahon to Japan, Smith to the Hurricanes. More worrying still, the American Express cards of senior staff were recalled by the club earlier this week, ramping up stress levels. It was understood that the first mediation session between the Rebels and the ARU was to have been held today but has been cancelled. Rebels owner Andrew Cox has launched legal action against the ARU claiming millions of dollars in damages stemming from the campaign to reduce Australia’s Super Rugby presence. The mediation conference was to have been the opening step in that process. Instead, it is believed the two parties will continue with their ongoing talks — presumably to determine whether the national body is able to buy the Rebels from Cox and close the team down, an outcome Cox has several times stated will not happen. Cox is believed to be in the United States on business. The cruellest aspect of this seesawing battle for survival is that the increasing sense of gloom being felt in Melbourne is being balanced by a heightened sense of relief in Perth. And by a delicious sense of irony, the two clubs will meet in Perth next Friday when Super Rugby resumes, in a match that will have little impact on the Super Rugby competition but will be of enormous significance for both of them.
RedandBlack
Guest
Any front rower will state the importance of the scrum - and its time the backs did as well. Its not just the win in itself but the fact it is a restart and the pattern for a whole series of breakdowns/territory plays is set here. A good scrum and you can get where you want to be, a poor one and you are under pressure - it is this setting of the pattern that makes set piece as important as the loose. As for the poor bloody looseheads - we need to get the ref's seeing the whole picture rather than just the outside - it is the tighthead who sets the angle - and if he's not square there's not much the loosehead can do about it - in my day it was not so much of a problem as you'd just follow him round and then drill in almost on your own to kill his momentum so things evened out. So if they are not going to allow that then looseheads are always going to be the poor cousins.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
We'll cut you a bit of slack Digger :D
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Dagg has certainly come back with a renewed appetite for the game since his long injury lay-off - frolicking like a young pup!
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Getting the timing right can be problematic though - similar to driving mauls or choke tackles.
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, Are there many/if any back three players in world rugby that are better than Dagg when it comes to offering the triple threat aspect? He was my player of the match last week.
Bakkies
Guest
Nick the basis of it use it or lose it in Rugby is to force teams to move forward when they are static. Shouting it for the sake it when you are going forward gives you no incentive to march up the pitch
Bakkies
Guest
Jerry Flannery's injury was costly. The Lions lineout was atrocious and he was a better scrummager than given credit for
Digby
Roar Guru
Yeah, my bad. Got carried away there ?
Drongo
Roar Rookie
An old trick is to grab a handful of skin and fat. Most props have some of that. It hurts a lot after a few scrums and generally straightens up the TH pretty quick!
mzilikazi
Guest
Yes, that would be great.
Fox
Roar Guru
Yeah they have looked impressive on a lot of fronts this year - clash with the AB's should be totally sick.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Well it's a great educational process on all sides Ak. I learned a lot from reading Mitch's posts for example. Terrific when you can get kind of dynamic going!