Rating the rebuild: Is the Knightmare almost over?

As a Newcastle Knights fan, I’ve patiently endured the last couple of years, trusting that Nathan Brown and Matt Gidley knew what they were doing.

I bought into their plans, believing that short-term pain would lead to long-term gain. But it’s been two years already, and what do the Knights have to show for it?

As I understood it, the idea was to prioritise local juniors. To blood a crop of talented youngsters, and let them grow and develop together. Sort of like what the Queensland Origin team did all those years ago.

And while Brown has more blood on his hands than Dexter Morgan after handing out so many first grade debuts, I’m just not convinced that things are heading in the right direction.

So let’s take a closer look into this monumental rebuilding project, and track just how things are progressing.

Coaching
They say a good craftsman never blames his tools. But the last time I checked, Scott Cam isn’t out there knocking up houses with a Stanley knife. And that’s the problem I have with trying to evaluate Nathan Brown. Are Newcastle’s dud results due to Brown’s coaching, or the players at his disposal?

There can be no doubt that Brown was handed a challenging assignment. Outside of George Pell’s publicist, I can’t imagine a tougher job. And while critiquing his performance may feel a little harsh, the reality is that rugby league is a results-driven business, and three wins from 39 starts (7.7%) just isn’t good enough.

Newcastle’s attack has been well below par. Brown commonly rolls with a one-dimensional game plan, and it can be difficult to tell exactly what the Knights are trying to achieve. Their inexperienced forward pack struggles to get across the advantage line, which limits the quantity and quality of their attacking opportunities.

And when an opportunity does finally present itself, the Knights seem completely devoid of ideas on how to capitalise on it. Their fifth tackle options are so clunky and ineffectual, it feels like they’ve barely practised them.

Their defence hasn’t fared much better. Newcastle are capable of aiming up for short periods of the game but quickly capitulate into a clueless rabble. They concede too many soft tries, and often concede them in bunches. As the old cliché goes, defence is all about attitude, and Newcastle’s attitude is less optimistic than a Sydney first home buyer.

Brown’s true litmus test will come next season. With another off-season to solidify his structures, another season of NRL experience under his youngsters’ belts, and a new batch of recruits on the roster, the ball is in Brown’s court. But if he can’t show significant improvement in year three, he may not be the right man for the job.

(AAP Image/Darren Pateman)

Front office
The Knights’ front office is one area where things are actually looking pretty good. While many staffers still bear the scars from the disastrous Tinkler era and the club continues to search for a buyer, Newcastle don’t let the ongoing uncertainties distract them from the job at hand.

The boardroom stability at Newcastle is certainly one of the side’s greatest strengths. By taking egos and personal agendas out of the equation, a concept largely foreign to rugby league, the Knights are able to work together towards a common goal. While Sydney clubs continue bicker and feud, the Knights just go about their business.

Matt Gidley and his staff have done an outstanding job cultivating life out of the scorched earth left by Tinkler and Wayne Bennett. From cleaning up the salary cap, luring back timid corporate sponsors and maintaining healthy crowds despite dismal results, the Knights’ front office have been exceptional despite incredibly difficult conditions.

If only the football side could help them out with a few wins.

Player development
In the forwards, the emergence of the Saifiti brothers has been particularly encouraging. The 21-year-old twin towers boast a frightening combination of size, speed and strength usually reserved for the bouncers patrolling the entrance of the Delaney.

Sam Stone and Luke Yates have also shown considerable promise in the back row, and Sione Mata’utia’s transformation from winger to second rower has been nothing short of astonishing. But the forward with the most upside is Lachlan Fitzgibbon.

The 23-year-old South Newcastle junior is a physically imposing specimen. Standing at an impressive 19 hands and weighing in at 1.8 Pacquiaos, Fitzgibbon plays a simple yet effective brand of footy. He runs hard, tackles harder, and is the perfect example of the type of footballer Nathan Brown wants to build a side around.

Unfortunately, things don’t look so rosy along the backline. Outside of Nathan Ross, there’s been a scarcity of younger players demanding selection on a regular basis. The remaining Mata’utia brothers have been a disappointment, Dylan Phythian lasted all of five minutes before injuring his knee, and Jaelen Feeney would be better off investigating his options at TAFE.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

And Brock Lamb? Well that’s the million dollar question right now. Is he the man to lead Newcastle back to respectability, or should the Knights be delving back into the player market?

Lamb possesses a strong long kicking game, throws a crisp spiral and is solid in defence, but he’s yet to develop the attacking polish needed to consistently post points in the red zone. His production of five try assists, one line break and four line break assists in 15 starts just isn’t up to scratch.

If Newcastle has any hope of becoming a contender in the near future, they need better output from their primary playmaker.

Recruitment and retention
When Nathan Brown and Matt Gidley first inherited this team, the roster was a complete mess. The Knights had an ageing squad, minimal depth and no long-term plan or direction. Back-ended deals were more common than mosquito swarms outside of the Great Hall, and many of the recently signed veterans were being paid well above their market value for minimal returns.

With limited funds, Newcastle initially adopted the Calombaris approach, and looked off-shore for hungry veterans willing to play for below minimum wage (see Paea, Mickey). But after a couple of years of rummaging through the bargain bin, the Knights finally have money to spend. The trouble is, they can’t find anyone to take it.

The Knights went hard after Jack Bird but were thwarted by the Super Coach. They attempted to coax Boyd Cordner back home, but Uncle Nick intervened. They threw money at Kieran Foran, Cooper Cronk and Connor Watson, but the lure of Darby’s Pies and long walks along Mereweather beach just wasn’t enough.

But despite missing out on multiple transfer targets, Gidley and Brown haven’t walked away empty handed. The signing of Kalyn Ponga is a massive coup for the club. While still only a kid, Ponga is widely viewed as a generational talent. He will step straight into the number one jersey next season, and instantly provide the Knights with a much needed spark in attack.

And while the signings of Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Aidan Guerra have been widely viewed as the biggest disaster to hit the Hunter since the earthquake of 89, they will be immediate contributors.

Getting out of Sydney will do wonders for Kenny-Dowall, and Guerra will thrive given the chance to start again. When Jamie Buhrer finally returns from injury, this trio will provide the Knights with the stable veteran presence that has been sorely missed in 2017.

Outlook
The good news is that Newcastle is improving. They’ve doubled their win count from 2016 and they’ve been competitive in the majority of their games.

The bad news? The Wests Tigers are the second worst club in the NRL this season, and they just pumped the Knights by 22 points. So yeah, things aren’t looking great.

I would love to talk up Newcastle’s chances in 2018, to beam with optimism about their new signings, and to be confident about their young squad taking the next step in their development.

I would love to imagine the Knights taking a few teams by surprise and sneaking into the top eight. But I just don’t see it happening.

The truth is that, despite all the improvements that Gidley and Brown have made to the side, Newcastle will still have the weakest roster in the competition in 2018. The Knights will once again field one of the youngest and most inexperienced sides in the competition, and they will still lack the superstar talent required to be consistently competitive.

The Newcastle Knights are headed in the right direction, but they are realistically still two to three years away from respectability.

(AAP Image/Darren Pateman)

5th Tackle Option
Here are five quick thoughts on the action from Round 17.

1. Quality slip of the tongue by Greg Alexander in commentary of the Bulldogs versus Eels game on Thursday evening. During the frantic opening stages of the match, Alexander accidentally called Canterbury winger Marcelo Montoya ‘Carlos’. I can only imagine that Brandy somehow combined former Spanish tennis ace Carlos Moya and Colombian F1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya to produce “Carlos Montoya”. That’s why they pay him the big bucks.

2. The gulf between the Melbourne Storm and the next best side grows by the week. At full strength, I don’t think another team can get within 12 points of them. This is certainly their premiership to lose.

3. While many, including myself, predicted Canberra to push for the title this season, their stunning collapse is not without precedent. As I mentioned in my season preview, the Green Machine don’t handle favouritism very well, bouncing in and out of the finals every season from 2004-2013. So look for the Raiders, sporting the more comfortable label of dark horses, to run riot in 2018.

4. That was a statement game by the Cronulla Sharks. The defending premiers have been a little quiet throughout the early stages of the Origin period, but a 44-12 demolition of the Roosters has reignited their title defence. Their lack of options at hooker is a little concerning, but otherwise they have maintained much of the side which bullied their way to lifting the Provan Summons trophy last season.

5. Another week, another signature performance by Daly Cherry-Evans. Objectively speaking, he waltzes back into the Queensland side. He is far and away the form halfback of the competition, his leadership qualities have blossomed this season, and he complements the structured play of Cooper Cronk perfectly. But they won’t pick him. And as a proud New South Welshman, I couldn’t be happier.