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Seven quick takes from AFL Round 18

Expert
23rd July, 2017
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Dustin Martin is surely captain material. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
23rd July, 2017
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4018 Reads

AFL 2017 continues to give us chills, spills and thrills, and all the more so as finals approach on the horizon. Here’s my quick takes from Round 18.

The top four race still wide open…
You might think that five weeks out from the end of the home and away we’d be getting a nice clear picture of who is going to make up the top four, but if anything it is getting more and more murky.

For a while I have thought that there was a clear top three and that one more spot will be filled out by whichever of the pack has the dice fall their way.

However the Giants’ luck has turned against them in recent weeks and they’re being shown up as a side that is not top-four quality – not that there’s any shame in that, given their injury woes.

That being the case, there could very easily be two top four spots up for grab between now and the end of the season if the Giants don’t regain their mojo soon.

Richmond have got to be in the box seat for one of them given they are a win ahead of the pack, and I would pick Sydney for the other as they just keep playing consistent top-quality football.

Port Adelaide and Melbourne are both in with more than a half a chance though, Essendon and West Coast could figure into calculations too but only if the last five rounds get really wacky.

Dustin Martin Trent Cotchin Jack Riewoldt Richmond Tigers AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

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…But the top spot race is pretty much done
Adelaide’s game against the Cats on Friday night was billed as one that might well decide top spot on the ladder and given how the cards have been dealt this weekend that seems likely to be the case.

The Crows now find themselves six competition points ahead of Geelong in second, and two straight wins ahead of anyone else – a pretty solid lead.

That means for the Crows to miss out on top spot they’d have to drop at least two and have Geelong win all five on the run home.

Adelaide would have to lose at least three matches for anyone other than the Cats to be a genuine chance for top spot at this stage.

Barring a bizarre twist of fate – which would not be at all out of place in 2017 – Adelaide look certain to be the minor premiers for the first time in 12 years.

Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows AFL 2015

(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)

Don’t look now, but Carlton could still win the spoon
Don’t get me wrong – I’ve come a long way towards rating Carlton’s rebuild since I penned a prediction that they’d win the spoon earlier this year.

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A swag of Rising Star nominations has been at least a medium-sized thumbs up for the Blues’ drafting under Stephen Silvagni, and Brendon Bolton’s ability to get the team working together as a unit despite their inexperience has been remarkable.

Still, I have been wondering more and more lately whether it’s better to rebuild by teaching the kids to attack or defend.

You can’t decide that philosophical battle off one result, obviously, but if you were going to do it based on Brisbane’s barnstorming win over the Blues, offence wins in an absolute landslide. I was always leaning that way before the game and I still am now.

Anyway, here’s the Carlton doomsday scenario:

Step one – Carlton don’t win another game for the year. They’ve got Geelong, Essendon, West Coast, Hawthorn and Sydney, so I reckon this is likely, especially with no Patrick Cripps.

Step two – Brisbane win two more. They’re only one win behind the Blues but aren’t going to make up the percentage gap. Gold Coast (Round 21) and North Melbourne (Round 23) are the key possibilities here.

Step three – North Melbourne wins one more. They probably need to lose to Brisbane for this to work so it has to be one of Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn or St Kilda. They won’t go in as favourites in any of those, but it could happen.

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Of course, it hardly makes a difference in the end, and the most likely result at this stage is that the Lions and Roos play out a ‘Cam Rayner cup’ decider for the wooden spoon in Round 23 – but you’ll have to excuse me for clinging to those few pre-season predictions of mine that are, if only just barely, still alive.

kade-simpson-carlton-blues-afl-2016

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Giant Greene not so jolly
I’m a fan of Toby Greene, which is one of the more controversial things you can say in the AFL bubble these days. If loving the pests of the footy field is wrong, I don’t want to be right.

He can make it hard to stay that way sometimes though. I’m all for giving the opposition a bit of a shake up and playing ‘unsociable’ footy, but you have got to learn where the line is.

Otherwise you just wind up looking pretty dumb. It didn’t help the Giants win on Sunday and having him banned for a couple of weeks is not going to help them win any of those games either.

Given the length of the Giants’ injury list it’s just especially stupid. If I was Leon Cameron I would’ve punched a hole through the wall, Clarko-style.

At least Stephen Coniglio will be back next week, and maybe Brett Deledio the one after – but with the Giants now fighting a battle just to stay in the top four, Greene has given them a headache they don’t need.

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Toby Greene GWS Giants AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Ben Brown blows up the Coleman race
It’s amazing what a difference having a big forward who can kick a bag makes for fans of a team. North Melbourne may have only won four games this year, but I still switch on the telly every week for the Ben Brown show.

I was lucky enough to see it in person this week and what good timing it was that he had arguably his best game of the season, dominating whichever of Michael Hartley or Michael Hurley was matched up on him (which by the way is a highly confusing pair of names for a backline to have, Essendon).

I remember watching him two years ago when he had springs in his hands and thought that when he learned to clunk them he would be an absolute beast – and it has come to pass. Hallelujah. He has so many ways to find a goal.

Joe Daniher booting two goals in the same game meant that for a few brief hours it was a three-way tie on the Coleman Medal chart, before Lance Franklin booted three on Saturday night to re-take the sole lead.

The race is very much open with five weeks to go though, with one of those three mentioned looking most likely to take home the prize.

And just between you and me, Brown is the only one who plays for a team whose season is over, and can afford to funnel it to him as much as possible without worrying about it ruining their results!

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Here’s a hypothetical for you – if North land Dustin Martin and Josh Kelly (yes, big if, I know), do they keep Jarrad Waite on for another year just to have a premiership crack? Waite and Brown make a formidable pairing – ten goals between them on Saturday.

Ben Brown North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Rob Blakers)

Season over for St Kilda?
I hate to say it having spruiked them for much of the year, but odds are that St Kilda’s season is pretty much over, their hopes of making the finals dashed.

You might scoff at that. They’ve still got a 9-8 record, after all!

But here’s their run home: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Melbourne, North Melbourne and Richmond. There’s probably only one game there where they start as favourites.

To be fair to the Saints, if they can go on a tear through that slate, then they’ll not only get themselves the points but deny their chief finals rivals of them.

That just doesn’t seem likely though, and having the lowest percentage of any side in the finals mix is a killer. They need to do at least one win better than all of Essendon, West Coast and the Dogs in what’s left of the year to get in.

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Probably not happening – this week’s results suggest it’s down to the Bombers and the Eagles for eight, with Essendon having the softer run home.

Jack Newnes St Kilda Saints AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)

Bailey Dale has become a must-sign Bulldog
Luke Beveridge said in his post-game presser that the Dogs are likely to lock in a deal with Bailey Dale to stay at the club soon, and fingers crossed for them that proves to be true.

Over the past month he has averaged nineteen touches and nearly two goals a game – and significantly more kicks than handballs. A goal-kicking wingman is something every team needs.

If opposition clubs weren’t interested before then, they certainly will be now, so expect his name to crop up in the trade rumours quickly if the Bulldogs don’t lock a signature down soon.

They should do, though. You’ve got to give enormous credit to the Dogs for creating a club culture that players will turn down dollars to stay apart of, as we’ve seen from the likes of Lin Jong or Jason Johanissen in recent times.

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