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After the excitement of this year’s Grand Final ebbs away, you can bet there will be talk about relocation. The NRL has three main choices.
The first is that it’s not broken so leave the competition unchanged, secondly add a couple of teams and form an 18-team competition or, thirdly, keep a 16-team comp but have at least one team relocate or cease to exist altogether.
All NRL fans will be able to agree on one thing. If the NRL chose option three and a team needs to relocate or cease, it definitely shouldn’t be their team.
There are sound arguments to introduce another team into the competition.
Central Coast Stadium was full a few weeks ago for the Roosters vs Sharks clash, while Adelaide and Perth would also press their claims for a spot in the competition.
Even a second Brisbane team in the large market there could work if marketed better than the South Queensland Crushers, who were unfortunately caught in the Super League war.
But, if a club has to go, who should it be?
The criteria logically should be financial stability, long term form and the impact on local grass roots development.
The four clubs receiving additional financial assistance from the NRL at present are the Gold Coast Titans, St George Illawarra Dragons, Wests Tigers and the Newcastle Knights.
Of the four clubs listed, you could argue the Titans are most at risk, however, the NRL is likely to continue its support of the club to try and ward off the challenge from the Gold Coast Suns.
It would be hard to imagine the NRL without the Dragons and it’s clear that the relocation of St George would have a large impact on grass roots in the Illawarra region, which is a heartland for rugby league.
The long successful history of the club should help preserve their spot.
The Wests Tigers’ form for the last 10 years has been ordinary.
After winning the grand final in 2005, the Tigers have only reached the top eight twice. However, while the Balmain demographic has arguably changed, the NRL would be very reluctant to move from the Campbelltown region and expose another region of kids to other sports.
The same argument could be made for the Newcastle Knights.
Of late, success for the Knights has been limited but the NRL will continue to support them going forward.
So, of the four clubs with the greater financial problems, none are likely to be forced to dissolve or relocate.
The Cronulla Sharks have been a target for relocation for many years, however, with the development near the ground likely to provide financial stability for many years to come, a growing membership base and the long awaited premiership, they should no longer be on the chopping block.
Lyall Gorman has proved to be great for the Cronulla club.
So, for me, from left field, it’s the New Zealand Warriors.
Since their grand final appearance in 2002, the Warriors have struggled, culminating in 2017 with their sixth year in a row where they have missed the finals.
With a team holding the likes of Isaac Luke, Keiran Foran and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, you would expect more but the 2017 Warriors have again proved a disappointment.
While Warriors crowds typically average in the mid teens of thousands, a one-team-town scenario in the city of Auckland should result in a full Mt Smart Stadium for most home games.
However, when league is running against the Super Rugby, or even Ranfurly Shield matches in New Zealand, the Warriors are fighting a losing battle against a dominant rugby union code.
With the ever increasing success of the All Blacks, this is guaranteed to continue.
In terms of grass roots participation, it is likely to have some effect.
The Warriors under-20s are currently last on the Holden Cup ladder, suggesting that a number of young New Zealand players are being picked up early by Australian clubs rather than going through the Warriors system.
A strong Kiwi Test team should continue to exist, although surely it’s not the NRL’s responsibility to foster this.
If the NRL do go down the third path and look to relocate or dissolve a team, for me, it has to be the New Zealand Warriors.
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