The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 21

Josh Elliott Editor

By Josh Elliott, Josh Elliott is a Roar Editor

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    Stakes are pretty high when the Bulldogs-Giants rivalry resumes on Friday night. I reckon the Giants have found their mojo and should get the win.

    Which is a bigger advantage – Geelong getting to play at home, Richmond knowing Joel Selwood is out? Impossible to tell, promising game. Tipping Richmond.

    Brisbane are better than Gold Coast, but the we-just-sacked-the-coach-win turns up every now and then. Still tipping Brisbane but not confidently.

    The Melbourne vs St Kilda debate may well come down to this match between them on the weekend. I’ll stick with the Dees.

    Hawthorn were well shut down by Richmond’s defensive prowess last week but don’t have to deal with anything even remotely resembling that on Sunday. Should beat North comfortably.

    Port Adelaide, if serious, can’t afford another slip up against Collingwood, but don’t inspire much confidence at the moment.

    Simple wins likely await for Sydney, Adelaide and West Coast. If you’re keen on a lock of the week, it’s the Swans.

    Lock of the week from the Simpsons

    Maddy Friend
    GWS, Sydney, Geelong, Brisbane, Adelaide, West Coast, Melbourne, Hawthorn, Collingwood

    GWS are getting some players back and look to be hitting some good form, so I’m tipping them in a close one on Friday night.

    Despite Richmond’s good recent form and Geelong’s host of outs, home ground advantage at Skilled Stadium counts for a lot, so I’m tipping the Cats by a goal.

    Rodney Eade’s sacking could galvanise Gold Coast, but Brisbane is in better form. West Coast and Melbourne should bounce back from losses last week.

    Port too will be keen to atone, but Collingwood has been playing with energy and spirit and should get the job done.

    Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn should get straightforward wins.

    Cameron Rose
    GWS, Sydney, Geelong, Brisbane, Essendon, West Coast, Melbourne, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide

    GWS are building ominously. The Dogs have found some form with four wins in a row, but face a much tougher test now. This will be a grudge match that will have huge top two, top four and top eight repercussions.

    Sydney will beat Freo, Brisbane over Gold Coast, West Coast against Carlton.

    The two big Saturday games are Geelong versus Richmond and Essendon versus Adelaide. The Tigers will surely win given the nature of the opposition outs. If Richmond can’t win, then they are pretenders.

    Essendon’s best is breathtaking, but the Crows are more consistent. I reckon the Dons might get this one done, to throw a cat among the pigeons for those chasing a top two spot.

    Melbourne versus St Kilda is an elimination final a month early. The Dees for me, ready to bounce back now.

    Will the bottom fall out of the Hawks now their finals run is over? Reckon they can still beat North.

    Port should bounce back from the Showdown humiliation, but I wouldn’t back them with stolen money.

    Round 20 Josh Elliott Maddy Friend Tim Lane Cam Rose The Crowd
    Last week 7 5 7 8 9
    Total 96 96 106 107 103
    Josh Elliott
    Josh Elliott

    Josh Elliott may be The Roar's Weekend Editor, but at heart he's just a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29 and listen to him on The Roar's AFL Podcast.

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    The Crowd Says (58)

    • August 10th 2017 @ 10:41am
      tibor nagy (big four sticks) said | August 10th 2017 @ 10:41am | ! Report

      Hoodoos are meant to be broken and this Saturday we will finally overcome the Geelong hoodoo.

      At a club function 5 years ago Brendan Gale said Richmond won’t be going back to Geelong, but given our poor season last year we are going back down there. We have had to buy solo tickets because there is not enough room to house all of us. The game should be moved to the MCG.

      • Roar Guru

        August 10th 2017 @ 10:50am
        Cat said | August 10th 2017 @ 10:50am | ! Report

        Not your home game. You don’t have a right to decide where it is played.

        • August 10th 2017 @ 11:11am
          Slane said | August 10th 2017 @ 11:11am | ! Report

          Does any team ever have the right to decide where a game is played? I would have thought that’s the purview of AFL house and the blokes in charge of fixturing. It’s a shame that Richmond had such an abysmal year last season and got put onto the list of interstate and piss-poor clubs that have to travel to Geelong.

          • Roar Guru

            August 10th 2017 @ 11:27am
            Cat said | August 10th 2017 @ 11:27am | ! Report

            If you want to be pedantic sure thing, you are correct. However, the home team certainly gets more say in where a game is played than the away team. The home team should never be forced to play a home game at their opponents home ground (unless it’s their shared home ground).

            May as well get used to traveling, Cats will be playing 11 home games a year at their home ground once stage 5 is done in a couple years. Every other team gets to play 11 home games at the ground(s) of their choosing.

            • August 10th 2017 @ 12:12pm
              Slane said | August 10th 2017 @ 12:12pm | ! Report

              ‘Every other team gets to play 11 home games at the ground(s) of their choosing.’

              Didn’t we just agree that no team gets to choose where they play?

              As long as the Freeway remains open after the game it shouldn’t be too painful to watch your team play in G-town every 2nd year.

              • Roar Guru

                August 10th 2017 @ 12:59pm
                Cat said | August 10th 2017 @ 12:59pm | ! Report

                All clubs submit ‘wish lists’ to the AFL. The AFL didn’t sned NM and Hawthorn to tassie because they felt like it, they get fixtured there because those clubs asked to be. Melbourne wasn’t forced to play home games in Darwin, they chose to. Port and the Suns weren’t sent off to China, they requested it.

              • August 10th 2017 @ 1:11pm
                Slane said | August 10th 2017 @ 1:11pm | ! Report

                Speaking of pendantry… That’s fantastic for those 4 teams for a handful of games. Every other team playing every other game has no choice at all.

            • August 10th 2017 @ 1:34pm
              truetigerfan said | August 10th 2017 @ 1:34pm | ! Report

              Not true! The Tigers are forced to play home games at Etihad Stadium. Do you really think they choose to do that?

            • August 11th 2017 @ 6:21pm
              Danny said | August 11th 2017 @ 6:21pm | ! Report

              what will the final capacity be?

        • August 10th 2017 @ 1:51pm
          The Ghost said | August 10th 2017 @ 1:51pm | ! Report

          Wherever we play whenever we play we will win.

      • August 10th 2017 @ 10:53am
        Don Freo said | August 10th 2017 @ 10:53am | ! Report

        Not this week. It will not be a contest. Without Selwood and Duncan, Danger has no one to do his defensive work for him. Without Hawkins, there is nothing up front.

        Richmond by over 50 points.

        Game of the Round will be Josh’s Lock of the Week. Hambling will shut Buddy down…again. Freo’s midfield is better than Sydney’s very good midfield.

        Just a matter of whether Kersten and McCarthy will work hard enough defensively on Rampe. Ballas will make Shaw’s easy possessions very difficult.

        • Roar Guru

          August 10th 2017 @ 11:22am
          Cat said | August 10th 2017 @ 11:22am | ! Report

          I’ve been meaning to ask Don, when are you actually going to learn then name of your own player? It is Hamling. Not Hambling.

          • August 10th 2017 @ 4:46pm
            Don Freo said | August 10th 2017 @ 4:46pm | ! Report

            “…learn then name of your own player…”


            • Roar Guru

              August 11th 2017 @ 2:47pm
              Cat said | August 11th 2017 @ 2:47pm | ! Report

              Since we’re being pedantic, you’ve used the ellipsis incorrectly, twice.

              • August 11th 2017 @ 4:48pm
                Macca said | August 11th 2017 @ 4:48pm | ! Report


                According to the above website Don is wrong to have used an ellipses at the start of his quotation but depending on which style you employ could be right or wrong to use one at the end.

              • August 11th 2017 @ 5:14pm
                GJ said | August 11th 2017 @ 5:14pm | ! Report

                You should bookmark that link Cat, wasn’t PaulD giving you a hard time about about ellipses a few months back?

              • August 11th 2017 @ 7:45pm
                Don Freo said | August 11th 2017 @ 7:45pm | ! Report

                That would be silly. If you followed the advice on that link you’d be re-submitting every academic essay.

                It’s amazing that Macca would be so engaged in what I say that he would trawl the internet to join the conversation…only to fall short of the mark.

              • Roar Guru

                August 11th 2017 @ 5:28pm
                Cat said | August 11th 2017 @ 5:28pm | ! Report

                In proper Australian English an ellipsis always has a preceding and following space.

                An ellipsis in quoted text is used to indicate the omission of one or more words in a sentence. In the example above my original sentence ended after the word ‘player’. Nothing was omitted; therefore, an ellipsis should not have been used.

                How Don should have typed it:

                ‘ … learn then name of your own player?’

                While not technically incorrect, double quotes in Australian English are generally reserved for quotes within quotes. Double quotes are preferred in American English.

              • August 11th 2017 @ 7:49pm
                Don Freo said | August 11th 2017 @ 7:49pm | ! Report

                No. I would only do that if I want the question mark. The edit is no longer a question.

                Interesting that you have adjusted your original judgement and have still come up with an error. Silly people.

                Freo can beat Sydney and probably will.

              • August 12th 2017 @ 7:46am
                Bill said | August 12th 2017 @ 7:46am | ! Report

                The purple rinse are an embarrassment. Likely to be done by triple figures

            • August 12th 2017 @ 8:17pm
              Don Freo said | August 12th 2017 @ 8:17pm | ! Report

              I think you’ll find that is the teams below Freo.

        • August 10th 2017 @ 2:23pm
          dontknowmuchaboutfootball said | August 10th 2017 @ 2:23pm | ! Report

          Yeah, Don, and it’s “Ballantyne”, not “Ballas”!

        • August 10th 2017 @ 8:37pm
          Mark said | August 10th 2017 @ 8:37pm | ! Report

          Shaw retired in 2015.

          • August 10th 2017 @ 9:03pm
            Don Freo said | August 10th 2017 @ 9:03pm | ! Report

            Yeah…I meant the other little rebounder…the bloke whose hairpiece has fallen to his chin…McVeigh.

            • August 11th 2017 @ 7:21am
              Bill said | August 11th 2017 @ 7:21am | ! Report

              Swans will beat Freo by triple figures. Never has there been a bigger basket case than the purple rinse. Brisbane have more to look forward to

        • Roar Guru

          August 11th 2017 @ 2:35pm
          Mango Jack said | August 11th 2017 @ 2:35pm | ! Report

          You should put all this to video, Don, dressed as Comical Ali!

        • August 13th 2017 @ 7:51am
          Bill said | August 13th 2017 @ 7:51am | ! Report

          What an amateur comment this was Don. The purple rinse are terrible; a fact that most rinse fans openly acknowledge. No good kids coming through either so not looking good for the long term.

          • August 13th 2017 @ 9:51am
            Don Freo said | August 13th 2017 @ 9:51am | ! Report

            No good kids? 12 players in yesterday’s side with less than 50 games played. 10 first 22 players out.

            Did you see the Rising Star nominee last week? Did you see who held Buddy to one goal after quarter time despite easy supply? Did you notice the 200cm CHF who took 9 marks…many contested?

            An insult is pointless without the substance of knowledge, Bill.

            • August 13th 2017 @ 11:06am
              Bill said | August 13th 2017 @ 11:06am | ! Report

              That statement is about as accurate as your suggestion the purple rinse would win ?
              How many inexperienced swans kids played? Papley, Melican, Hayward, Newman, Mills, Hewett, Towers, Jones, Heeney…
              So all the “less than 50 games” stat says is that one side’s kids are good, the other’s terrible.
              “10 of first 22 out”. If Spur, Sandilands, Uebergang, Clarke, Grey, Balic etc are best 22 then the future’s even worse than I first thought!
              I won’t bother responding to the rest of your diatribe; as I said you lost all credibility after predicting a rinse win ?

              • August 13th 2017 @ 4:45pm
                Don Freo said | August 13th 2017 @ 4:45pm | ! Report

                You don’t seem to know Freo’s club. Way more youth than Sydney’s and you have only won 4 more games.

              • August 13th 2017 @ 8:23pm
                Bill said | August 13th 2017 @ 8:23pm | ! Report

                Don predicts basket case purple rinse to win. Basket case rinse lose by 100+

                Other than the coach wanting out, I thought The Roar summed things up well tonight:

                Ladder position flatters flunking Fremantle
                Fremantle are going to avoid a bottom-four finish this year, but you could make an argument that they’re only a few lucky turns away from being the worst team in the league.

                The Dockers may have eight wins to their name this year, but fully half of them have come by less than a goal.

                Whether or not that means something is one of the great endless footy debates, but I’ve said a few times this year that I don’t place much stock in close wins or losses, and I stand by it.

                Every team above them has had at least five wins with margins bigger than a goal, and of the four teams below them…

                Gold Coast – Five wins by more than a goal.
                North Melbourne – Four wins by more than a goal.
                Carlton – Four wins by more than a goal.
                Brisbane – Four wins by more than a goal.

                So there isn’t a team in the league with less wins by more than a goal, and of the three they’re even with, two of them have a better percentage, and the other – Brisbane – defeated them by 57 points in their only meeting this year.

                Here’s another stat to consider – in 180 AFL games so far this season, only three have ended in margins of 100 points or greater. Fremantle have been the losing side in two of those (Gold Coast the only other).

                What does it all mean? The short version is that Fremantle aren’t very good, but really, you already knew that. They’re maybe even less good than you think they are.

                Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty of things to like about their list going forward.

                End of the day though, it’d be a mistake to look at their eight wins this year and assume they’ve made significant progress on a four-win season in 2016.

    • Roar Rookie

      August 10th 2017 @ 11:05am
      Lord Dunsborough of the MCC said | August 10th 2017 @ 11:05am | ! Report

      Richmond can’t play at the G – it needs to be kept in pristine shape for the real up and coming heroes of 2017, the mighty MCC Fuchsias. Our game on Sunday against the Aint’s requires pristine turf and glorious conditions to really flower. I have every confidence in our lads to get it done, we finally knocked them off round 1 this year and we will do it again, kneecap the Saints, like so many of their fans who don’t pay their dealers on time. 3 games in a row at the G starting this week vs Saints, Fitzroy and Carringbush, I don’t want to get ahead of myself but I’m already pencilling in the 12 points.

      Regarding Richmond, I haven’t heard these sort of levels of delusional honking in the leadup to a Geelong game since that glorious Tigers finals campaign of 1995. A packed tiger train, hurtling into Waverley Park for a Prelim against the Cats only to go full Granville with a humiliating 129-40 thrashing. At least it spared you losing to that unstoppable Carlton side next week by 100+. Tally ho you yellow and black slobs, looking forward to spraying raspberries in your general direction Sunday night, as I sip my perfectly aged brandy and toast our win while listening to the microwaves popping membership cards the length and breadth of Punt Road

      • August 10th 2017 @ 1:56pm
        The Ghost said | August 10th 2017 @ 1:56pm | ! Report

        The difference between 1995 and now is that we are the real deal. Your season is done and dusted because you failed to beat a minnow club and a Frankenstein creation. Our season is just clicking into high gear.

        • Roar Rookie

          August 10th 2017 @ 2:13pm
          Lord Dunsborough of the MCC said | August 10th 2017 @ 2:13pm | ! Report

          That’s the spirit my phantasmagorical friend, if nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see you through.

          We are far from finished, in fact we are just gearing up for finals. Richmond are gearing up for the most crushing disappointment since 2013 when you managed to lose to a 9th placed side despite being up by 30 points at half time. Make sure that microwave is working well old boy

      • Roar Guru

        August 12th 2017 @ 10:35am
        DingoGray said | August 12th 2017 @ 10:35am | ! Report

        Oh Archie please don’t disappear, you posts always are the funniest parts of my week.

    • August 10th 2017 @ 11:57am
      Mattyb said | August 10th 2017 @ 11:57am | ! Report

      Should be a good round of football. I’m not sure how back GWS are but this shapes as a good clash. Hopefully the young doggies defence can hold up. I have the feeling this will be a key.
      Sydney should get up over Freo.
      Brisbane are actually starting to look ok and should be to good for GC.
      Richmond I think will get over Geelong.
      Crows over Essendon but an upset wouldn’t surprise me here.
      Eagles comfortably against the fading blues.
      Melbourne v Saints is a tough one but I think the Saints this week.
      North to upset the Hawks,think Hawthorn might be a little flat after last week.
      Port to win the battle of the magpies.

      • Roar Guru

        August 10th 2017 @ 12:09pm
        AdelaideDocker said | August 10th 2017 @ 12:09pm | ! Report

        I’d agree with most of that, Matty.

        Except Hawks vs North. I expect Hawthorn to comfortably win that one.

        • August 10th 2017 @ 12:22pm
          Mattyb said | August 10th 2017 @ 12:22pm | ! Report

          I did call it an upset AD,there’s normally one a week at least. Like I said maybe Hawthorn might be a bit flat realising their finals hopes are over.

          • August 10th 2017 @ 1:32pm
            Birdman said | August 10th 2017 @ 1:32pm | ! Report

            not mathematically…. 🙂

            • August 10th 2017 @ 10:39pm
              Mattyb said | August 10th 2017 @ 10:39pm | ! Report

              Don’t worry Birdman,I’m expecting Hawthorn to bounce back neaxt year and to finish the season off well overall.
              I’ve actually been pretty impressed with their growth throughout this season,an impressive club.
              This week is one week on a long journey.

    • Roar Guru

      August 10th 2017 @ 12:05pm
      AdelaideDocker said | August 10th 2017 @ 12:05pm | ! Report

      Collingwood has the most upset potential for the week, I reckon. I wouldn’t mind them winning, always fun to see Port struggle. Essendon will take it right up to the Crows’ as well, not sure why everyone is thinking Adelaide’s up for such a simple win.

      Sydney should win, but I won’t be surprised if Freo get close at some stages. An upset’s pretty unlikely, but hey maybe Rick Disnick’s presence will inspire something 😉

      • August 10th 2017 @ 2:31pm
        Macca said | August 10th 2017 @ 2:31pm | ! Report

        On upsets – in the blues last 6 trips to Perth to play the Eagles they are 3-3 with 2 of their losses by 3 & 10 points.

        That said it would certainly be a big upset.

        • August 10th 2017 @ 2:57pm
          true blue said | August 10th 2017 @ 2:57pm | ! Report

          Let’s see if my dream comes true, Macca. Although I won’t be betting on it. If we lose this I think we have the spoon sewn up.

          • August 10th 2017 @ 3:03pm
            Macca said | August 10th 2017 @ 3:03pm | ! Report

            True Blue – I had forgotten about the dream – we are certainties.

            As for the spoon as Ricky Bobby would say “If you ain’t first you’re last”, we may as well get out pick of the litter.

        • August 10th 2017 @ 9:15pm
          Sammy said | August 10th 2017 @ 9:15pm | ! Report

          We crows supporters will be barracking for your blues macca as we don’t want carlton to finish bottom as threatening to send lever to the draft where he might end up at brisbane has much more clout than threatening to send him home to melbourne to your team in any negotiations…

          • August 11th 2017 @ 9:09am
            Macca said | August 11th 2017 @ 9:09am | ! Report

            Sammy – Lever is a quality player but I doubt the blues will making a tall defender a priority in their recruiting.

            I welcome the support anyway.

            • August 11th 2017 @ 11:03am
              sammy said | August 11th 2017 @ 11:03am | ! Report

              maybe, but if you could potentially get him for nothing in the preseason draft, you would be mad not to take him and that is why the threat will be more solid if Brisbane finish bottom as lever is likely to have little or no desire to spend a year of his career up there whilst they are in a rebuild

              • August 11th 2017 @ 11:35am
                Macca said | August 11th 2017 @ 11:35am | ! Report

                We could get him without using a draft pick or trading yes but it won’t be for free, I would assume Lever would put a big price on his head and I would expect the blues would be trying to get someone like Kelly from GWS and ensuring they keep enough cap room going forward to keep all their young players coming through so spending big money on a position they have a reasonable amount of depth and youth may not be the best option.

                But he is definitely a real talent and maybe a half interested Carlton is still more of a threat to your negotiating position than Brisbane.

      • Roar Guru

        August 11th 2017 @ 3:15pm
        Rick Disnick said | August 11th 2017 @ 3:15pm | ! Report

        They’ll get up for me.

        GO DOCKERS!

    • August 10th 2017 @ 1:11pm
      I ate pies said | August 10th 2017 @ 1:11pm | ! Report

      It’s funny how one in a row for GWS against a non-existent Melbourne constitutes a return to form for the Roar experts, but four in a row for the Dogs constitutes just finding some form. It’s classic media one week memory.

      • August 10th 2017 @ 3:02pm
        Macca said | August 10th 2017 @ 3:02pm | ! Report

        I ate Pies 3 of those 4 wins have come against 18th, 17th & 15th – with victories against the bottom two sides not exactly being impressive.

        Since the bye the only side outside the bottom 4 that the Dogs have beaten is Essendon who struggled to get past the blues last weekend – I would hardly say they are in great form.

      • Roar Guru

        August 10th 2017 @ 3:29pm
        TomC said | August 10th 2017 @ 3:29pm | ! Report

        It’s almost as if people actually watched them play.

    • August 10th 2017 @ 4:47pm
      Brian said | August 10th 2017 @ 4:47pm | ! Report

      Not a Buckley fan but on what basis are Port beating Collingwood? They’ve been terrible lately.
      Lock is definately Sydney to beat Freo

      • August 11th 2017 @ 6:24pm
        Danny said | August 11th 2017 @ 6:24pm | ! Report

        probably due to the massive outs…Grundy and Wells

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