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Maybe it’s just because everything else going on in Australian rugby has deadened the memory a bit, but I can’t readily recall a more fascinating set of selections leading into the first Bledisloe Cup Test Match of the year.
The Wallabies desperately need to start The Rugby Championship and Bledisloe series well, not just for the obvious purposes of the respective competitions, but to strike a blow for optimism within the average Australian rugby fan. It’s actually hard to understate how good a win on Saturday night would be – everything won’t be rosy again, of course it won’t, but it would be a huge uplift for the game locally.
New Zealand, on the other side of the coin, will be equally as desperate to put the disappointment of the drawn series with the British and Irish Lions behind them, and re-establish themselves as the dominant team in world rugby.
And with the teams likely to be known over the course of today, it’s the possible makeup of both sides that brings a healthy amount of intrigue to the build-up this week.
It will be really interesting to see what the All Blacks’ back three and centres look like, where Israel Dagg might be the only survivor from the 15-all Third Test draw.
Australia’s backline could look very similar to the final June Test against Italy, but it could just as likely look totally different. Will Genia and Bernard Foley would appear to be locked into the halves, and Israel Folau will be in there somewhere, but how will the other positions be filled?
What is really curious about the Wallabies make-up is that the way Michael Cheika will want to play will quite likely involve players that don’t fit into the defensive strategy Nathan Grey will be wanting to employ.
(AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Where Cheika will be wanting to once again head down this mythical and supposed ‘Australian way’ and play with all-out attack, Grey will be wanting to get into the face of the All Blacks midfield and slow down, if not cut off the supply of ball to the fast men in the outside backs.
Where Cheika will be thinking along the lines of Kurtley Beale and Samu Kerevi, Grey will be wanting to find places for Reece Hodge and Tevita Kuridrani.
Certainly, the defensive performance of the Lions has provided something of a blue-print for other teams in The Rugby Championship. The fast line-speed in midfield and taking all the space away from Beauden Barrett was incredibly effective in slowing the All Blacks down, allowing the Lions to play the game at the pace they needed to, rather than at the pace New Zealand prefer.
If three other TRC defensive coaches haven’t picked the important bits out of the Lions’ shape for their own benefit, you would have to seriously question why.
Certainly, it feels like Beale will be named at inside centre for the Wallabies, though I would be pleasantly surprised and incredibly impressed if his game has changed so much in one English Premiership season that he would defend there as well.
And that means that again, the Wallabies will be having to over-complicate their defensive structures, requiring a musical chairs type of arrangement where players who can’t defend suitably head to the backfield, and those who can rush up into the front line. This has never been fraught with danger in the past, so why change now, right?
So if Genia, Foley, Beale and Folau seem locked in, who fits in around them?
(Photo: PaulBarkley/LookPro)
With ‘Super’ Sefa Naivalu out of action, Henry Speight and Dane Haylett-Petty probably loom for the wing spots, though Haylett-Petty’s injury cloud might actually open the door for Hodge, who would slot into a frontline defence position a lot better and adds another kicking option, both out of hand and extra distance from the tee.
I’d be surprised if Cheika suddenly decided to play Folau anywhere other than at fullback, despite most of his better work these days coming down the right flank. If he did – and I’d welcome that decision, for what it’s worth – then either Beale or Haylett-Petty at fullback would be a good fit.
And that just leaves the no.13 jersey. Again, I’d be surprised if Folau will feature in outside centre discussions, and it seems to be a Kerevi or Kuridrani decision.
For mine, this decision comes down to who plays at 12, both in attack and defence. If Hodge doesn’t start somewhere, then it nearly has to be Kuridrani at 13, and leading the defensive midfield press. If Hodge is there, then perhaps Kerevi can slot in there. I genuinely can’t split the two 13s.
Of course, who the Wallabies midfield will face is a bit unknown too. It was Ngani Laumape and Anton Lienert-Brown in the last Lions Test, but Ryan Crotty and Sonny Bill Williams will certainly be back in the mix. When a guy like France-bound Malakai Fekitoa looks unlikely to get a game, it’s a pretty healthy selection spot to be in.
The selection questions will be answered in the coming hours, and of course, the tactical and defensive questions will be figuratively and literally tackled on Saturday night.
Until then, we have intrigue. And it’s just about my favourite part of the first Bledisloe of the year.