The year’s final major tournament is nearly upon is, and with defending champion Stan Wawrinka and two-time champion Novak Djokovic both sidelined due to injury, all eyes will be on Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to see if they can meet in a US Open final for the first time.
Federer and Nadal have been the two form players of the season by a country mile, with Federer winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon on either side of Nadal claiming a record-breaking 10th French Open crown.
The absences of Wawrinka (due to a knee injury) and Djokovic (arm), as well as the injury struggles of Andy Murray, threatens to make the tournament a foregone conclusion that one of Federer or Nadal will claim the title.
However, there are several other players who have shown great form at the Masters events this year, with Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov both claiming their maiden Masters titles in Rome and Cincinnati respectively.
Let’s now have a look at the three main contenders for the US Open title, as well as outline some other potential dark horses.
Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Current world ranking: 1
Titles won this season to date: Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, French Open
US Open history
Best result: Won twice (2010, 2013)
Last year’s result: Fourth round
Grand Slam results in 2017 to date
Australian Open: Runner-up
French Open: Won
Wimbledon: Fourth round
After a couple of lean years due to injury, Rafael Nadal has returned to his best in 2017, culminating in his return to the world number one ranking this week.
The Spaniard started this season by reaching his fourth final Down Under, where he went down to Roger Federer in five sets in another classic final after being stretched to his limits against Grigor Dimitrov in the semi-finals.
He then found himself on the wrong end of defeat against Federer in the back-to-back Masters events at Indian Wells and Miami, with the latter marking his fourth straight defeat against his Swiss rival.
(AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
However, it didn’t take long for him to rediscover his love for the clay courts, achieving ‘La Decima’ at Monte Carlo, Barcelona and the French Open, while also claiming his fifth title in Madrid.
His win at the French Open marked the third time (after 2008 and 2010) that he won the tournament without dropping a set, the culmination of which was a straight-sets dismissal of Stan Wawrinka in the final.
This elevated expectations that he would do well at Wimbledon, however he would once again fall before the quarter-final stage, losing to Gilles Muller after a final set that lasted 28 games and two hours and fifteen minutes.
And despite poor back-to-back showings at Montreal and Cincinnati, where he lost to Denis Shapovalov and Nick Kyrgios, respectively, the points accrued over the first half of the season was enough to see him overtake Andy Murray as the world number one.
This means he will be the top seed at the US Open for the third time, after 2008 (when he lost to Murray in the semi-finals) and 2010 (when he defeated Novak Djokovic to complete his Career Grand Slam).
Last year the Spaniard arrived at Flushing Meadows seeded fourth after he missed Wimbledon due to a wrist injury, which forced him to withdraw from the French Open midway through the tournament.
He managed to reach the fourth round but was beaten by Lucas Pouille in a five-set thriller; the result meant he failed to reach a Grand Slam quarter-final at all in 2016, making it his worst year at the majors since 2004.
This year, as documented above, he has enjoyed a renaissance in form, and it should culminate in him doing well in New York, this is despite the fact that he has not won a hard court title since early 2014.
Prediction: Finalist
Andy Murray (GBR)
Current world ranking: 2
Titles won this season to date: Dubai
US Open history
Best result: Won (2012)
Last year’s result: Quarter-finals
Grand Slam results in 2017 to date
Australian Open: Fourth round
French Open: Semi-finals
Wimbledon: Quarter-finals
After a phenomenal second half of last year, in which he won his second Wimbledon title, defended his Olympic gold medal and went undefeated after the US Open, Andy Murray has struggled with injuries and poor form in 2017.
The Scot started this year well, losing to Novak Djokovic in the final of the season-opening event in Doha, but then went down to Mischa Zverev in four sets in the fourth round of the Australian Open.
He would bounce back by claiming his first (and to date only) title for the year in Dubai, defeating Fernando Verdasco in the final, before again posting disappointing showings at Indian Wells and Miami.
A return to the clay courts saw him reach the semi-finals in Barcelona, where he lost to Dominic Thiem, before bowing out early at Madrid and Rome, winning just one match across those two Masters events.
The 30-year-old then reached the semi-finals of the French Open for the fourth straight year, where he lost a five-set thriller against Stan Wawrinka after leading by two sets to one and being within reach of victory in the fourth.
(AP Photo/Andy Brownbill)
It was then he started to feel the effects of a hip injury, which would hamper him through the grass court season. Still, he managed to reach the quarter-finals at Wimbledon, where he lost to Sam Querrey in five sets.
Murray then opted to skip Montreal and Cincinnati in order to rest his body, and consequently lost his world number one ranking to Rafael Nadal. Still, he could regain it depending on how both men fare at Flushing Meadows.
A disturbing fact for the Scot is the fact that he has not advanced past the quarter-finals since winning the title in 2012. In the five years since, he has been stopped at the quarter-final stage three times, while he lost to Kevin Anderson in the fourth round in 2015.
The fact that he is lacking match play, on top of enduring a mediocre season by his standards, does little to suggest that he will salute at the US Open for the second time.
Prediction: Quarter-finals
Roger Federer (SUI)
Current world ranking: 3
Titles won this season to date: Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Halle, Wimbledon
US Open history
Best result: Won five times (2004-08)
Last year’s result: Did not play
Grand Slam results in 2017 to date
Australian Open: Won
French Open: Did not play
Wimbledon: Won
After enduring an injury-plagued 2016 season, which ended without a title for the first time since 2000, Roger Federer has hit back the only way he knows how to.
The Swiss Maestro kicked off his season by claiming his fifth Australian Open title, and 18th major title overall, by defeating his Spanish nemesis Rafael Nadal in a classic, edge-of-your-seat five-set finale.
After stumbling early in Dubai, the 36-year-old would then claim the Indian Wells and Miami events back-to-back before opting to bypass the entire clay court season in order to fully concentrate on his Wimbledon assault.
His first outing on grass saw him lose his first match to Tommy Haas in Stuttgart, but he would hit back by claiming his ninth title in Halle before claiming his eighth crown at the All England Club without dropping a set.
( The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images )
Federer thus became the first man since Bjorn Borg in 1976 to win Wimbledon in such flawless fashion, while it was also just the second time he’d won a major title without dropping a set (after the 2007 Australian Open).
He then proceeded to reach the final in Montreal, but would find the emerging young force that is Alexander Zverev too good for him. It marked the first time in 2017 that Federer lost a match without holding a match point.
A back injury picked up there forced him to bypass Cincinnati, instead opting to head straight to Flushing Meadows where he has saluted five times.
Because he did not play at the tournament last year, the 36-year-old will have no rankings points to defend and as such can earn fresh points at will, meaning he has the chance to leave New York as the world number one.
There is also the lure of winning his 20th Grand Slam singles title, which if he achieves will cap off an undefeated year at the majors and also his best year at this level since 2007, when he won all bar the French Open.
Despite having to skip Cincinnati due to a back injury, I expect Federer to go all the way for the first time since 2008.
Prediction: Champion
Other players to watch out for
As mentioned at the top of this article, Alexander Zverev has shown why he is fast becoming one of the rising stars of men’s tennis, claiming his maiden two Masters titles in Rome and Montreal by defeating Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in the finals, respectively.
He also claimed titles in Montpellier, Munich and Washington, bringing his career title haul to six, and this week achieved a career-high world ranking of number six, becoming the first German to be ranked this high since Rainer Schuettler reached his peak of number five in April 2004.
But while his Grand Slam form needs some improvement, he also took Rafael Nadal to five sets in the third round of the Australian Open, and reached the fourth round of Wimbledon where he lost to Milos Raonic.
Another player to watch out for is Grigor Dimitrov, who after a couple of lean years appears to be rediscovering his potential.
The Bulgarian claimed his first career title since 2014 when he upset Kei Nishikori to win the Brisbane International, before losing a five-set semi-final heartstopper against Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open in January.
He then returned to the world’s top ten for the first time in over two years after reaching the fourth round of Wimbledon, where he lost to Roger Federer, and did not drop a set en route to claiming his first Masters title in Cincinnati, in which he defeated Nick Kyrgios in the final.
The absences of Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic means he will be seeded seventh, two places higher than his current ranking of world number nine, thus keeping him away from Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Federer and Zverev until the quarter-finals.
Kyrgios’ run to the Cincinnati final has raised Australia’s biggest hope of glory at Flushing Meadows, while local interest will centre around John Isner and Sam Querrey, who at Wimbledon this year became the first man from his country to reach a Grand Slam semi-final since Andy Roddick in 2009.
Former champion Marin Cilic and former Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic are also expected to do well.
The year’s final Grand Slam tournament gets underway on Tuesday morning (AEST).
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