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The finals have come early for NRL fans - but what's going to happen in Round 26?

Roar Rookie
30th August, 2017
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Chad Townsend of the Sharks celebrates after scoring a try during the round 24 NRL match between the North Queensland Cowboys and the Cronulla Sharks at 1300SMILES Stadium on August 19, 2017 in Townsville, Australia. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Roar Rookie
30th August, 2017
4
1028 Reads

Rugby league fans will salivate at the football which will be played during Round 26 of the NRL home-and-away season this coming weekend.

Finals football has arrived a week early, as four teams vie for the final three places of the top eight. One of the Panthers, Cowboys, Sea Eagles and Dragons will miss out after this weekend’s matches are played.

The Melbourne Storm sit atop the NRL ladder on 42 points, and can’t be caught, followed by Sydney Roosters on 36. The Brisbane Broncos and Parramatta Eels are next best on 34.

Cronulla are in fifth spot on 32 points and they, along with the four teams above them, are all assured of a finals berth.

Presented below are a multitude of scenarios that could play out over the weekend:

It doesn’t matter if minor premiers the Storm win, lose or draw against the Raiders – they will remain in top spot and will be playing the fourth-placed team in Melbourne during the first week of the finals.

Currently sitting in second spot, the Roosters can’t finish lower than fourth place after this weekend and if they beat the Titans, they will automatically stay in second on 38 points. A home final beckons at Allianz or ANZ Stadium.

If the Roosters lose to the Titans, they can be leapfrogged by the Broncos if they account for the Cowboys this evening, given the Broncos’ superior for and against of +154 compared to the Roosters’ +68. The Broncos would then have a home semi-final at Suncorp Stadium.

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The Eels, at +32, could also leapfrog the Roosters in the unlikely scenario of the Titans racking up a big score against Sydney and the Eels significantly beating the Rabbitohs.

The Sharks could enter the top four if the Eels lose and they beat potential wooden spooners the Newcastle Knights. Wade Graham has been cleared of serious injury and the Sharks could possibly welcome back Jack Bird from injury this weekend.

andrew-fifita-jack-bird-nrl-rugby-league-cronulla-sharks-2016-grand-final

(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)

It’s mathematically possible (but highly unlikely) that the Sharks could overhaul the Broncos if the Broncos lose by a large margin to the Cowboys and the Sharks’ scoreline against the Knights blows out significantly.

The Knights will be keen to avoid the wooden spoon and their former players will be having their annual reunion in Newcastle, so it more than likely won’t all be one-way traffic in the Hunter.

The likely outcome on current form is the Broncos will be too good for the banged-up Cowboys in Townsville, the Eels will beat the Rabbitohs on Friday and the Roosters will take care of the underperforming Titans a day later.

The top four decided, the Storm would then play the Eels in Melbourne and the Roosters will play the Broncos at Allianz or ANZ during week one of the final series.

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With the above decided, this would leave the Sharks stranded in fifth place and a sudden death home semi-final against the eighth-placed team, provided they account for the Knights this Sunday.

Looking at the teams placed sixth to ninth, Dragons player Tariq Sims has possibly ensured 30 points may not be enough come finals time courtesy of his one-on-one strip on Panthers winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak last Sunday. If the Dragons beat the Bulldogs this Sunday, they would automatically qualify for a top eight position due to their superior for and against.

If the Dragons lose to the Doggies, then the top eight and qualifying finalists will remain the same as before the round commenced and 30 points will be the cut-off for the top eight teams.

If the Cowboys do manage to beat the Broncos and St George beat Canterbury, it would come down to the Manly versus Penrith game at Brookvale to decide the fate of the top eight. The loser of this match could be having mad Monday drinks at least one week earlier than expected.

The likely scenario on current form is the Sharks will be too good for the Knights. The Dragons, desperate to qualify for finals football, will outclass the Doggies, despite their good form over the last few weeks.

The Broncos will more than likely beat the Cowboys, although it will be much closer than many pundits would be prepared to predict.

Jordan Kahu Brisbane Broncos NRL Rugby League 2017

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

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The match at Brookvale will shape the top eight from there. If Penrith win, then it could be Manly dropping out of the top eight or the Cowboys depending on which team ends up with the superior for and against.

If Manly win, then the heat is suddenly placed on the Cowboys +34, as Penrith have a much better for and against +61. Both teams will be trying to keep it tight, regardless of the scoreline.

As for those four clubs still playing musical chairs over those three available finals spots, there are no guarantees other than win and you’ll be there the following weekend rather than having mad Monday after Round 26.

The only team who can really sit back and enjoy the weekend are minor premiers Melbourne, as their result has no bearing on the make-up of the potential finalists and where they are positioned.

As for the fans, they will be intrigued about what is set to unfold over the next 72 hours of rugby league from Thursday evening.

The good thing is all nine teams control their own destiny this coming weekend: win and they’re in, lose and they have to sweat on other results, especially those four teams vying for the three remaining finals spots.

Sport mirrors life, as there are no guarantees and there may or may not be upsets aplenty.

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Good luck to all teams, as NRL fans settle into watch many intriguing contests in a week of finals football which has come early.

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