Hawthorn missed the finals in 2017 for the first time in eight years. Was it just a blip on the radar, or the start of a downturn?

AFL list management series
18 – Brisbane Lions
17 – Gold Coast Suns
16 – Carlton Blues
15 – North Melbourne Kangaroos
14 – Fremantle Dockers
13 – Collingwood Magpies
11 – St Kilda Saints
10 – Western Bulldogs
9 – Melbourne Demons
8 – Essendon Bombers
7 – Port Adelaide Power
6 – West Coast Eagles
5 – Sydney Swans
4 – GWS Giants
3 – Geelong Cats

2017 in short

The Hawks started the year in poor form, very poor form, with a big-margin Round 3 loss to Gold Coast being one of the most shocking results of the year.

They improved in the latter half of the year and were in the race for finals – even if only in an unlikely way – until a fortnight out from the end of the season.

Injuries hit them pretty hard at times though and in the end the season will be more remembered for the development of Ryan Burton and the starpower of Tom Mitchell than anything else.

For a more comprehensive review of Hawthorn’s year check out this piece by Stirling Coates.

Coach

Widely regarded as the best coach in the game, Alastair Clarkson is contracted to coach the Hawks for the next two years at least, and there’s no reason at this stage for that to not be the case.

He experimented a fair bit with the Hawthorn lineup this season in what was always going to be a year of transition, which led to some underwhelming results at times but also some memorable victories.

It’ll be interesting to see which of those experiments continues next year and which fall back – Clarko turned half the Hawks’ forward line into defenders this year, but someone needs to kick the goals.

With four premierships under his belt, Clarkson has earned the right to dictate his own future – whatever he wants to do next, he’ll do, and at the moment that seems to be leading Hawthorn through their rebuild.

Captain

Jarryd Roughead’s return to the game after a bout with cancer was one of the stories of the year, and the fact that he did so as the new captain of the club made it only more inspiring.

Neither Roughead nor the team’s form was at the best we’ve seen it this year, but one would expect that he’ll improve next year having settled in more after a significant layoff.

He’ll be 31 at the start of next season so is likely only to be a short term captain, for another two years or so.

Current vice-captain Liam Shiels, or perhaps new recruit Tom Mitchell, could be options to replace him when the time comes.

List management

Unsurprisingly there’s a lot of talent near the top end of the Hawthorn playing list, but it is gradually aging and now most players in that group do have a question mark or two attached.

Players like Shaun Burgoyne (34), Jarryd Roughead (30), Paul Puopolo, Grant Birchall (29), James Frawley, Isaac Smith, Ben Stratton, Ben McEvoy and Cyril Rioli (all 28) – they have, in part, made up the core of a great era for Hawthorn. Ricky Henderson (28) is in this range as well.

A large number of them had years interrupted by injury this year – Puopolo, Birchall, Frawley, Stratton and Rioli all did. That’s no doubt part of why the Hawks finished a bit lower than was expected at the start of the season.

However at the ages they are, it’s fair to ask whether we should expect them to fire up again in 2018, or instead be looking towards the next tier of players to carry the team. There’s no guarantee that anyone in this group has more than one or two good seasons left in them, and some may have less left than that.

The Hawks have clearly already begun that transition towards the middle tier as the next core of their playing group, given the departures of Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis last year, and Luke Hodge and Josh Gibson this year.

However they also identified that it was a bit lacking, and so made some big moves at the trade table last year in order to bolster it with some top-shelf talent that can lead a new Hawthorn generation.

The Hawks’ middle generation at the moment consists of Luke Breust, Taylor Duryea, Liam Shiels (all 26), Jack Gunston, Will Langford (25), and last year’s recruits Tom Mitchell (24) and Jaeger O’Meara (23).

It’s still a bit thin at this point with players like Langford and Duryea being in and out of the best 22 this year, Shiels more a great grinder than anything else, and Gunston needing to be moved back to find form this year.

However, Hawthorn’s next captain is in there somewhere, and if O’Meara in particular can come good it will hold strong – though looking at other possible additions in this range wouldn’t be a bad move.

Finally, in comes Hawthorn’s youth, such as it is – James Sicily (22), Billy Hartung (22), Daniel Howe (21), Ryan Burton, Blake Hardwick and Kieran Lovell (both 20).

The truth is that there’s not a whole lot of talent here and that’s what will happen when you trade away five first-round picks in six years – and 2017’s is already gone too, of course.

If you were to try to picture three-years-from-now Hawthorn making a best 22 out of only the middle and youth tiers, there’s a few elite talents in there surely, but it’s got a significant lack of depth – there is much work to be done to keep this club healthy.

Hawthorn players by age
Shaun Burgoyne – 34yr 10mth
Josh Gibson – 33yr 5mth
Luke Hodge – 33yr 2mth
Jarryd Roughead – 30yr 7mth
Paul Puopolo – 29yr 9mth
Grant Birchall – 29yr 7mth
Ricky Henderson – 28yr 11mth
James Frawley – 28yr 11mth
Isaac Smith – 28yr 8mth
Ben Stratton – 28yr 6mth
Ben McEvoy – 28yr 1mth
Cyril Rioli – 28yr 1mth
Brendan Whitecross – 27yr 7mth
Tyrone Vickery – 27yr 3mth
Ryan Schoenmakers – 26yr 9mth
Luke Breust – 26yr 9mth
Jonathon Ceglar – 26yr 6mth
Taylor Duryea – 26yr 4mth
Liam Shiels – 26yr 4mth
Jack Fitzpatrick (R) – 26yr 2mth
Jack Gunston – 25yr 10mth
Will Langford – 25yr 1mth
Tom Mitchell – 24yr 3mth
Jaeger O’Meara – 23yr 6mth
Tim O’Brien – 23yr 5mth
Kaiden Brand – 23yr 4mth
Jonathan O’Rourke – 23yr 4mth
Kurt Heatherley – 22yr 8mth
James Sicily – 22yr 7mth
Billy Hartung – 22yr 7mth
Dallas Willsmore – 22yr 3mth
Daniel Howe – 21yr 8mth
Marc Pittonet – 21yr 2mth
Teia Miles – 20yr 10mth
Kade Stewart – 20yr 7mth
Ryan Burton – 20yr 7mth
Blake Hardwick – 20yr 6mth
Kieran Lovell – 20yr 3mth
Conor Glass (R) – 19yr 11mth
Luke Surman (R) – 19yr 8mth
James Cousins (R) – 19yr 5mth
Conor Nash (R) – 19yr 1mth
Oliver Hanrahan (R) – 19yr
Mitchell Lewis – 18yr 10mth
Harry Morrison – 18yr 9mth

The two players Hawthorn must immediately make a decision on are Taylor Duryea and Billy Hartung, both of whom are out of contract this year.

Neither is an elite player, both have their flaws, but both are also worth retaining and trying to improve – they’re unlikely to get Hawthorn a big enough return on the open market to make letting them go a wise choice.

There’s not necesarilly any big re-signings that must be targetted inside the 2018 contract group, instead, there’ll be decisions to be made on players like Burgoyne, Frawley, Puopolo and Roughead. Some will be kept, some won’t.

Generally speaking the Hawks have developed an organisation that players want to remain a part of – if they lose someone it’s generally because they decided they could afford to.

Hawthorn players by contract status
2021
Luke Breust
Tom Mitchell

2020
Ryan Burton
Cyril Rioli
James Sicily
Isaac Smith

2019
Grant Birchall
James Cousins (R)
Conor Glass (R)
Jack Gunston
Blake Hardwick
Will Langford
Ben McEvoy
Tim O’Brien
Liam Shiels
Ben Stratton

2018
Kaiden Brand
Shaun Burgoyne
James Frawley
Oliver Hanrahan (R)
Dan Howe
Mitchell Lewis
Teia Miles
Harry Morrison
Conor Nash (R)
Marc Pittonet
Paul Puopolo
Jarryd Roughead
Ryan Schoenmakers
Tyrone Vickery
Brendan Whitecross

Out of contract
Jonathon Ceglar
Taylor Duryea
Jack Fitzpatrick (R)
Josh Gibson
Billy Hartung
Kurt Heatherley
Ricky Henderson
Luke Hodge
Kieran Lovell
Kade Stewart
Luke Surman (R)
Dallas Willsmore

Unconfirmed
Jaeger O’Meara
Jonathan O’Rourke

Delistings and retirements

Luke Hodge and Josh Gibson have already announced their retirements from the game.

The Hawks need to cut at least one more player and it’s hard to guess who that might be, as most of those in the out-of-contract group arguably deserve another year.

Astoundingly, it may well be Jonathan O’Rourke – his contract details aren’t confirmed but it’s likely that he is out of contract this year. The former No.2 draft pick has had almost no impact in his time as a Hawk.

Free agency

Taylor Duryea (unrestricted)

Duryea hasn’t been linked to any other clubs at this point and the most likely result would be that he stays at Hawthorn, that said, if he left and the Hawks got a second-round compensation pick they’d probably be reasonably happy with that.

In terms of bringing talent into the club, free agency is the logical choice for the Hawks as they have a need to acquire some but can’t afford to keep selling their draft picks if they want to bring in a good stream of youth.

Tom Rockliff does come to mind as a potential target this year, but the Hawks probably should overlook him – he’s old enough that he’s pushing the boundaries of being part of that ‘middle tier’ group, and is also probably too similar to Tom Mitchell and Liam Shiels in terms of playing capabilities.

Steven Motlop and Jackson Trengove could both potentially fit in, they’re a little younger and they both offer something that Hawthorn could use. Neither has had the kind of season they would have liked to, but the Hawks can back themselves in to return them to form.

However I suspect the wiser and more likely scenario for the Hawks will be to have a quiet one in 2017 and instead target some free agents in 2018 and beyond, ones who fit better with the age profile they are trying to build.

Trade period

There has been a little talk that Paul Puopolo might be on the move this year, with GWS floated as potential destination for the 29-year-old.

Hard to say if anything will come of that – he is contracted to the Hawks for another year but they would likely make his passage easy if he does decide to leave. They wouldn’t get anything of value in return.

In terms of players coming in, the Hawks have been linked to two, Devon Smith at the Giants, and Mason Cox at Collingwood.

Smith would be a handy addition, at 24 years of age he fits perfectly into the Hawks’ list, but the big question is what they would give up for him – they would likely need to dip into their 2018 draft picks, and they need those to actually draft players with. For that reason alone I doubt we’ll see it happen.

Cox would come cheaply but it’s not clear what he would really offer at the Hawks, and he’s at the higher end of the age range Hawthorn should be going after – feels like recruiting for recruiting’s sake.

Draft

First three rounds: GWS’ second-round pick, 42.

The Hawks sold everything of value they had last year in order to land Jaeger O’Meara, it wiped them out of last year’s draft and has pretty much wiped them out of this year’s one too.

That’s unfortunate because, as much as their ability to recruit from other clubs has been great, at some point they have to hit the draft hard and develop some talent organically.

Ryan Burton has been their brightest star all year and should be a great reminder to those in the Hawks’ hierarchy that the traditional route of drafting elite youth and developing them still works damn well.

They don’t appear likely to have anyone going out of the club this year who will net them draft picks early enough to be of real value, so it’s going to have to wait until 2018 at least – and they must resist the urge to sell those picks early.

Outlook

If they get a bit of a resurgence from the golden oldies and most of a full season out of Jaeger O’Meara then the Hawks could easily bounce back into finals as soon as next year.

However, you’d expect that to taper off a bit as the veterans gradually make way, and what Hawthorn should really be targeting right now is more success after the turn of the decade.

So very much rest on the shoulders – or more accurately the knees – of Jaeger O’Meara. The Hawks gave up much to get him, but if he comes good it will all have been worth it – and his elite performance in Round 23 suggests that’s a real possibility.

You’d expect it’s going to be a quiet off-season for them, though they have surprised us before. If they do, it’ll likely come through free agency.

The general list strategy, however, should be to retain draft picks as much as possible to bolster their youth stocks, and then start targeting a few top-notch free agents perhaps as early as next year, but more likely in 2019 or 2020.

This great club rarely spends too long outside the premiership race, and if they make the right moves again over the next few years that will be the case once again.