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The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Finals week one

Josh Elliott Editor

By Josh Elliott, Josh Elliott is a Roar Editor

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15 Have your say

    We’ve waited (more than) long enough. Finals are here, and there are some super intriguing matchups in the first week.

    I’ll be previewing every final on the morning of the match right here on The Roar, but here’s the short version of what I reckon is on the way.

    More AFL Finals
    » Finals forecast: Adelaide vs GWS
    » Adelaide vs GWS preview
    » Crystal Ball predictions from the team

    GWS can upset Adelaide on Thursday night. It won’t be the end of the Crows’ premiership aspirations though, and might even be better for them.

    Geelong have defeated Richmond thirteen times in a row since the Tigers last beat the Cats. It’ll be fourteen on Friday night.

    Essendon are arguably the scariest team Sydney could face, since they got within a point of them not that long ago – but the Swans are men on a mission and will get the job done.

    Port Adelaide at home will be too good for a West Coast side that is fortunate – and probably still a bit surprised – to be here.

    But why stop at this week? I’m going to think a bit ahead here and put down my entire finals bracket, which surely will tempt faith enough for the footy gods to ruin it tonight at the first pass.

    Adelaide defeated by GWS.
    Geelong defeat Richmond.
    Sydney defeat Essendon.
    Port Adelaide defeat West Coast.

    Adelaide defeat Port Adelaide.
    Sydney defeat Richmond.

    Geelong defeated by Adelaide.
    GWS defeated by Sydney.

    Sydney defeat Adelaide in the grand final.

    It’ll be one wild ride of a finals series if all that comes off!

    Josh Jenkins Adelaide Crows AFL 2017

    (Photo by Morne de Klerk/Getty Images)

    Cameron Rose
    Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney, Port Adelaide

    It’s just too hard to tip against Adelaide to open the finals, especially at home, and with the Crows having a 2-0 record over GWS under Don Pyke. Adelaide will out-pressure the Giants across the ground, and have too many scoring options going forward.

    Richmond and Geelong both go into their final with momentum, the Tigers having won six of seven, and the Cats off three wins in a row including over Richmond and GWS.

    Geelong had a decisive home ground advantage in their Round 21 clash, both dimensions of the arena and through the “noise of affirmation”.

    The bigger ground should suit the faster Tigers, and any wet weather won’t harm their chances either. Richmond to win a tight one.

    Sydney should have the easiest task of all the favourites, though Essendon can win if they do a lot of things right. The Swans run won’t be over just yet.

    West Coast hold an imposing Adelaide Oval record, and certainly won’t fear Port, but the Power have won four of their last five, and should win without too much trouble.

    Finals week 1 Josh Elliott Maddy Friend Tim Lane Cam Rose The Crowd
    Last week 5 6 5 6 6
    Total 116 117 123 126 123
    Josh Elliott
    Josh Elliott

    Josh Elliott may be The Roar's Weekend Editor, but at heart he's just a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29 and listen to him on The Roar's AFL Podcast.

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    The Crowd Says (15)

    • September 7th 2017 @ 3:49am
      Geoff Schaefer said | September 7th 2017 @ 3:49am | ! Report

      As a Crows fan I’d obviously prefer to go straight to the preliminary final. But if a loss sets up the possibility of flogging Port the following week, that would be some consolation. Providing we won of course. Should the alternative happen, I shall pack my bags to move to Outer Mongolia and tend goats until next season…

      • September 7th 2017 @ 4:34pm
        Brayden Rise said | September 7th 2017 @ 4:34pm | ! Report

        Geoff, a win over GWS and we sit with a home prelim final and Sloane back, our best shot at a grand final in some time….so important to get this first win.

        • September 7th 2017 @ 5:11pm
          Geoff Schaefer said | September 7th 2017 @ 5:11pm | ! Report

          Couldn’t agree more Brayden. Just saying if we lose it would be nice to inflict some horror on the swamp monkeys.

    • September 7th 2017 @ 8:08am
      Jewels said | September 7th 2017 @ 8:08am | ! Report

      As a passionate Swans fan, I love your full finals predictions Josh and hope you’ve suddenly become psychic!

    • Roar Rookie

      September 7th 2017 @ 8:20am
      Lance Skelton said | September 7th 2017 @ 8:20am | ! Report

      The Swans hey?

      That would be an incredible result after where there were from 0 and 6.

      Essendon first though.

    • September 7th 2017 @ 9:30am
      tibor nagy (big four sticks) said | September 7th 2017 @ 9:30am | ! Report

      Free barrel down at the Spread Eagle on Friday night after we knock off the Cats. We may have an abysmal record against Geelong in home away games, but when it comes finals we have the wood over Geelong, sans 1995. We will be heading towards a preliminary final. They know we are coming!

    • September 7th 2017 @ 9:52am
      The Ghost said | September 7th 2017 @ 9:52am | ! Report

      Richmond will smash Geelong tomorrow night with our 70k Tiger Army cheering us on. The fairytale has begun as the mighty Tigers carry the hopes and aspirations of all (non Geelong and non Essendon) Victorians on our backs.

      The perennial grand final chokers will continue the pathetic finals record of the bummers.

      West Coast will kick Port out of the finals race.

      Adelaide will beat the Giants.

      • September 7th 2017 @ 10:00am
        Brayden Rise said | September 7th 2017 @ 10:00am | ! Report

        I don’t think you will smash them but I do think the Tigers will win by 4 points and book yourselves a preliminary final berth. Bombers to upset the Swans.

      • September 7th 2017 @ 2:12pm
        Jimmy said | September 7th 2017 @ 2:12pm | ! Report

        By ‘pathetic record of finals losses’ are you referring to Richmond having not been able to win a single final since 2001? Out in straights.

    • September 7th 2017 @ 10:38am
      randoiu said | September 7th 2017 @ 10:38am | ! Report

      1. geelong gets more members which means more fans
      2. tigers will go out in straight sets because they cant win finals
      3. they havn’t beat the cats in 13 attempts
      4. media has said this is as fired up as geelong has been for any finals campaign
      5. geelong by 5 goals

      • September 7th 2017 @ 11:46am
        hal said | September 7th 2017 @ 11:46am | ! Report

        Yes I agree that we will beat Richmond. I think by 24 points. Taylor did an excellent job on Rance last time because he is a natural defender. I don’t think he will be on Rance this time as Hawkins is back. Last time we met Richmond’s high kicks out of the back line played into our hands.

        Other games: my heart says Essendon but Sydney will win.

        Adelaide will win.

        Port front runners v West Coast down hill skiers: who cares but I am tipping the Eagles as they have a good record against Port, even in Adelaide.

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