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It’s not the final many were expecting, but Geelong’s trip to Adelaide to face the Crows for a place in the AFL grand final is still shaping as an enticing match-up.
Tomorrow night’s preliminary final won’t decide the 2017 premiership, but it will see this season’s two most consistent sides meet in a do-or-die clash.
Both sides finished atop the ladder with 62 points, Adelaide claiming the minor premiership thanks to their far superior percentage, then sealing the ‘advantage’ of the week off – more on that later – with a demolition of the Giants in their qualifying final.
The Cats’ appalling performance against the Tigers in week one of the finals means they had to take the hard way to this preliminary final, but their match last Friday against the Swans proved anything but.
Sydney were admittedly well below their best, but the performance from Geelong in executing an excellent gameplan from Chris Scott has catapulted them back into premiership contention just a week after they were written off. Us footy fans are fickle folk.
The Cats head into this match as underdogs – and deservedly so – but they head to Adelaide with history on their side. They’ve won five of the last six against the Crows, and while Don Pyke’s men won the last match between the two, Adelaide haven’t won two on the trot against Geelong since 2002-03.
Of course, there’s no point putting much stock in such historical records – you only need to look at the Cats’ win last week for evidence of that. Plus, pointing out Adelaide’s poor record against the Cats can be evened up by saying the Crows have won every single final against Geelong. All one of them.
At any rate, these sides split their season matches. They finished in the top two ladder positions. They both score points for fun – Adelaide finished first for points scored during the regular season and Geelong fourth – and boasted similar defensive records – Adelaide conceded 1776 points to Geelong’s 1818.
We even have the unavoidable narrative of Patrick Dangerfield returning to face his former club in the city he made his name.
This should be fun.
Last five matches
R18, 2017, Adelaide Crows 13.13 (91) d Geelong Cats 10.10 (70) at Adelaide Oval
R11, 2017, Geelong Cats 13.18 (96) d Adelaide Crows 10.14 (74) at Simonds Stadium
R18, 2016, Geelong Cats 12.13 (85) d Adelaide Crows 7.13 (55) at Simonds Stadium
R8, 2016, Geelong Cats 13.20 (98) d Adelaide Crows 11.6 (72) at Adelaide Oval
R23, 2015, Geelong Cats 17.17 (119) d Adelaide Crows 11.14 (80) at Simonds Stadium
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Adelaide Crows
IN: Rory Sloane, Andy Otten
OUT: Brodie Smith (Knee), Mitch McGovern (Hamstring)B: Rory Laird, Daniel Talia, Jake Lever
HB: Luke Brown, Kyle Hartigan, Jake Kelly
C: Rory Atkins, Rory Sloane, David Mackay
HF: Richard Douglas, Taylor Walker, Charlie Cameron
F: Tom Lynch, Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts
FOL: Sam Jacobs, Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch
I/C: Riley Knight, Paul Seedsman, Hugh Greenwood, Andy Otten
EMG: Wayne Milera, Alex Keath, Reilly O’BrienGeelong Cats
IN: Tom Lonergan, Nakia Cockatoo
OUT: James Parsons (Omitted), Zach Guthrie (Omitted)B: Tom Stewart, Tom Lonergan, Zach Tuohy
HB: Andrew Mackie, Lachie Henderson, Jed Bews
C: Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Mark Blicavs
HF: Steven Motlop, Harry Taylor, Darcy Lang
F: Daniel Menzel, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Hawkins
FOL: Zac Smith, Sam Menegola, Scott Selwood
I/C: Nakia Cockatoo, Jake Kolodjashnij, Brandan Parfitt, Rhys Stanley
EMG: Zach Guthrie, Jordan Murdoch, James Parsons
So, about that week off…
Any discussion of a preliminary final in a season which includes a pre-finals bye is pointless without mentioning the lack of game time for the home side. Adelaide haven’t played a match since they tore the Giants apart two weeks ago, and that six-goal win – which was over by halftime – is their only game since August 27.
Enjoying a breather during a run to the flag is all well and good, but there’s no chance the Crows don’t come into this one at least a little underdone, and will take a while to get going again. Ditto for star midfielder Rory Sloane, who missed the final against GWS.
How much of an effect this has depends on which Geelong side shows up. If we see the old, slow-starting Cats who couldn’t get a half or quarter-time lead in a final to save themselves, there’s no worry for the Crows.
But if we see the fast-starting side which had essentially ended Sydney’s season by quarter-time last Friday, Adelaide will be in trouble – they need only look as far as their opponents to see the disastrous effects of a sluggish start in a preliminary final.
Geelong haven’t lost a game this season in which they’ve led at quarter-time. That’s not a stat the Crows will want against them tomorrow night – they might be the best second-half team in the comp by percentage, by Geelong aren’t far behind.
What impact will injuries have?
It’s inevitable that the injury bug will take its toll on each club still standing this late in September, and this match is no different. In addition to the loss of rebounding defender Brodie Smith, the Crows will also be without impressive forward Mitch McGovern.
Strong-marking McGovern has been a key cog in Adelaide’s side this year. The Crows won six of ten games without the big forward earlier in the year, a mark well shy of their impressive 10-2 record with him.
Rory Sloane will, however, be a welcome inclusion for the home side.
As for the Cats, they’re likely to have key defender Tom Lonergan back after he missed the win against the Swans with food poisoning, while the likes of Nakia Cockatoo and Cam Guthrie are also possible inclusions.
Of the three, Lonergan is surely the most important. The Cats dealt with Sydney’s tall forward line just fine without the experienced backman, but Adelaide’s raft of mobile, athletic bigs is a far more difficult prospect than an out-of-sorts Lance Franklin with Callum Sinclair and Sam Reid.
Lonergan’s inclusion will be a major boost to Geelong’s chances of limiting Adelaide’s forward potency.
Can Dangerfield and his supporting cast steal the show again?
Patrick Dangerfield’s surprise shift to full-forward for the entire first half against the Swans was as big a reason as any for the Cats’ 59-point win. In addition to kicking four goals, Dangerfield kept Dane Rampe occupied, preventing the Swans’ most important defender from roaming around, picking off intercept marks and kick-starting counter-attacks.
John Longmire and his team were completely blindsided by Dangerfield’s move forward, but the element of surprise is an advantage the Cats won’t have if and when they use the same tactic tomorrow. You can bet your bottom dollar Don Pyke and the rest of Adelaide’s coaching staff will have a complete alphabet’s worth of backup plans to stymie Danger, a far cry from the lone plan A employed by Longmire and the Swans last week.
Whether they work or not is another matter entirely. Dangerfield is easily good enough break open the game in spite of any well-thought-out defensive plans whether he’s playing up front or in the middle.
What made the reigning Brownlow medallist so effective last week was the ensemble effort from Geelong’s lesser lights. Steven Motlop, Mark Blicavs and Mitch Duncan were all outstanding, preventing Chris Scott form having to pull Dangerfield back into the midfield.
If the Cats hope to use Dangerfield in a similar manner to last week, it’s up to those second-tier players to hold their own against Adelaide’s impressive – and severely underrated – midfield unit. Given that unit so comprehensively outclassed the Giants’ talent-rich midfielders two weeks ago, that will be no easy task.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Prediction
After the first week of the finals, there’s only one side you’d have picked in this match-up. Hell, back then everyone – myself included – was assuming the Cats were on the verge of a straight-sets exit.
Now, Geelong come into this match having sprung the upset of the finals on the back of a standout performance from their superstar and a rare dominant first-quarter showing.
They come up against a side that has played one game in the best part of a month, is missing two key players, and whose best midfielder hasn’t played since August.
But even with all that in their favour I still can’t bring myself to tip the Cats. Adelaide’s forward line is too potent, their midfield too strong, and their defence too stingy for their Geelong counterparts.
I expect the Cats to start strongly as the Crows blow out the cobwebs. But after that, the Crows, in front of a rabid home crowd, should pull away late to seal a place in the grand final.
Adelaide by 12.