Adelaide vs Geelong: AFL Finals Forecast

There are three games of football left in the 2017. But fear not, because they will all be amazing, starting with tonight’s preliminary final between the No-Dangerfields and the Dangerfields: the Adelaide Crows and Geelong Cats.

We’ll get over this little wrinkle one day, won’t we? Much of the talk in the lead up to this evening’s game has centred on the fact Geelong’s he-man superstar Patrick Dangerfield used to play for Adelaide, and the fact the Crows have played two of their best seasons in their current construction without him.

It is Dangergame V, the fifth time the two teams have squared off since Dangerfield returned to his roots. Geelong hold an all-time 3-1 record in Dangergames, winning the first three (including once at the Adelaide Oval) before the Crows pinched one back in Round 18 this year.

The games have tended to be on the lower scoring side of the spectrum, and no team has kicked 100 points despite these teams collectively cracking triple digits in one third of their games in 2017.

And as if we needed any more of this particular brand of spice, Adelaide’s Josh Jenkins poured a bucket of petrol onto a simmering flame by stating Dangerfield would be a premiership player if he’d stayed with the Crows.

What that means precisely I’m not sure – was Dangerfield the difference last season? Is Jenkins supremely confident Adelaide has this season sewn up? No matter, if you haven’t heard about it already you’ll surely hear about it 19 times on tonight’s broadcast.

The Dangergame emphasis obfuscates what looms as a fascinating tactical battle between two teams who have their own very defined style of play.

Geelong played their stop and go plan to ruthless effect last weekend against Sydney, playing keepy off and slow playing the Swans to 2017 death. With an extra man behind the play – Lachie Henderson in this instance – Geelong chopped off most Sydney forward thrusts before they could develop.

They took a collective 129 marks, their highest tally for the season, and held the ball for 17.7 minutes more than their opponent.

That was Geelong’s second highest time in possession differential on the year, bested only by their Round 11 encounter with…Adelaide. In that outing, the Cats smacked the Crows around the clinches, with a +34 contested possession differential to show for it. The game never really needed Geelong’s special brand of slow play – the midfield did the job on the ground.

Last time out was much different. In Round 18, Adelaide got their incisive outside game going, turning in a stellar performance at stoppages and stretching Geelong’s defence with pace and direct ball movement.

In a sign of how interesting these game can be, and how contrasting the two team’s styles, despite the comprehensive nature of the general play victories won by the victor in both games this year, the margins were 24 points (Round 11) and 21 points (Round 18) respectively. It promises to be quite a contest.

Both teams have made two changes; the Crows forced through injury and the Cats unforced through a desire to change up their structure.

Adelaide lost Brodie Smith to an ACL injury in their qualifying final, and Mitch McGovern to a hamstring injury earlier this week. In their place come the appendix-less Rory Sloane, and utility Andy Otten.

By contrast, Geelong has dropped James Parsons and Zach Guthrie for the returning Tom Lonergan (who was a late scratching last week) and Nakia Cockatoo, returning from a hamstring complaint.

The Cats have effectively dropped two midfield rotation players for a key defender and a small forward. That will cascade across their whole team sheet: Harry Taylor could now play as the centre half forward, and Patrick Dangerfield would surely spend the majority of his game through the middle of the ground.

Alternatively, Geelong can match up to Adelaide’s tall forward line and still play with a spare man if they wish by keeping Taylor back, and playing Dangerfield in the forward line for a share of the game.

By contrast, Adelaide have gone more like for like, notwithstanding Sloane plays more of an inside role than Smith. He’ll sit atop the Crows’ midfield pyramid once again, allowing the rest of the team to slide down a position which will go some way to compensating for the loss of Smith.

Indeed, should the rangey midfielder have been available, Adelaide would have likely omitted Paul Seedsman from their team. Otten is a utility, and has played forward and back. He’ll probably swing from one end of the ground to the other depending on how the game evolves and whether the Crows want to play the +1 game.

Following selection, the Cats have produced a significantly different forward line than they played in their qualifying final against the Tigers. With Cockatoo and Menzel now in the team, the Cats are as close to full strength up forward as their injury list allows.

However, ball control and ball movement remains the key – for both sides. As we’ve seen from their past few encounters, there’s a bit of a matrix at play: the Cats rely on control, and the Crows on movement. Geelong is the sledgehammer, Adelaide the scalpel.

The Cats are very capable of keeping the ball out of the hands of Adelaide’s outside flankers, by turning the game into a slow-play slog fest with plenty of stoppages. Adelaide won’t mind that so much (the Crows rank fifth in clearance differential in wins), but will need to be aware of what the Cats are looking to do when they have the ball in hand. Adelaide is excellent at defending outside play and causing turnovers, and from here it would seem they will need to be attune to Geelong’s likely tendency this evening.

There’s also the small prospect of Dangerfield spending time at full forward – Geelong, masters of the cheeky team sheet, named him there last night. It’s a trump card, but one which the Crows will have planned for; he will be double teamed without fear or trepidation, and there will be a man assigned to guard his leading space around the goal square and in the area around. Geelong coach Chris Scott will surely give the move a spin at some point, but it won’t be from the centre bounce.

This finals series has had one close game and a series of relatively large margin games. Preliminary final weekends tend to go one of two ways: close games or blow outs. This one looms as staying close all night, if only because of the recent history of the two sides, and the fascinating manner in which their play interacts.

A lot is being made of last year’s preliminary final weekend; where the two home favourites, who’d spent semi final week on the pine, were knocked off by their opponents. Prior to that, the preliminary final round favourite had won 27 of the previous 28 encounters. Adelaide are the favourite this evening.

It’s hard to go past them honestly. The longer I stare into space thinking about this game, the more I believe Adelaide has the Cats – and Tigers, and Giants – covered in just about every respect.

They’re my pick, in a tight game that’ll end up being decided by two goals or less late in the piece.

That’s my AFL Finals forecast, what’s yours?