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The Richmond Tigers and GWS Giants are both just one win away from a grand final – certainly, one of them is going through.
For the Tigers it would be their first appearance in the big dance in 35 years, bringing to an end an era of mediocrity that has taken its toll on a generation of fans.
For the Giants it would be, after six years in the competition, their first-ever appearance in the decider. Either way, history gets made.
Richmond come into the match with supreme confidence after their dominant effort over Geelong in the qualifying final.
They suffocated the Cats with their pressure, and when their opponents had no energy left, ran away with the game in the final term.
They’ll no doubt look to do the same against the Giants tonight, and it’s a tactic that will do well against a GWS team with a bit more tiredness in the legs.
Unlike Richmond who’ve had a week off to relax and haven’t left Victoria in weeks, the Giants are making their second finals road trip of September.
If they’re to win, they’ll need to use their elite skills to control the ball, wait for the right attack opportunities, and complete them with precision.
If they crack under pressure, the game will be lost.
Last five matches
Round 18, 2017 – Richmond 9.10.64 defeated GWS 6.9.45 at MCG
Round 9, 2017 – GWS 11.12.78 defeated Richmond 10.15.75 at Spotless Stadium
Round 19, 2016 – GWS 17.9.111 defeated Richmond 3.5.23 at Manuka Oval
Round 14, 2015 – Richmond 10.18.78 defeated GWS 10.9.69 at MCG
Round 19, 2014 – Richmond 13.11.89 defeated GWS 8.14.62 at MCG
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Richmond Tigers
No ChangeB: Brandon Ellis, Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes
HB: Bachar Houli, David Astbury, Nick Vlastuin
C: Kamdyn McIntosh, Trent Cotchin, Jacob Townsend
HF: Kane Lambert, Dustin Martin, Josh Caddy
F: Dan Butler, Jack Riewoldt, Daniel Rioli
FOL: Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia, Shaun Grigg
I/C: Shane Edwards, Jack Graham, Nathan Broad, Jason Castagna
EMG: Shaun Hampson, Shai Bolton, Corey EllisGWS Giants
No ChangeB: Zac Williams, Phil Davis, Heath Shaw
HB: Nick Haynes, Adam Tomlinson, Nathan Wilson
C: Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto
HF: Matt de Boer, Harrison Himmelberg, Tom Scully
F: Steve Johnson, Jonathon Patton, Brett Deledio
FOL: Rory Lobb, Jacob Hopper, Josh Kelly
I/C: Aidan Corr, Lachie Whitfield, Toby Greene, Callan Ward
EMG: Devon Smith, Harry Perryman, Sam J Reid
The Lids back on
Brett Deledio is going to play just his sixth game for the GWS Giants tonight, and as luck would have it, it’s against his old side, his 250th AFL game, with a grand final spot on the line.
The stakes don’t get higher than this and it’s a fixture no one though would be happening, certainly not so soon, when the trade was done last year.
Deledio is yet to really turn it on for GWS – he’s played some good games, but he’s honestly been more of a solid citizen than the genuine star he often was as a Tiger.
Right now would be the perfect time for him to lift just one or two levels higher.
The most lopsided crowd in history
Of a crowd that’s likely to be 95000+, less than 2000 are expected to be GWS fans – we might as well be playing this one at Punt Road.
The crowd will likely be at least 30000 more than the Giants have ever played in front of, and that’s going to take large psychological toll on the Giants.
A fast start to shut the crowd up a bit is absolutely non-negotiable.
No changes on either side
Neither team has made any change to their side from their most recent performances, and given that both had good wins that’s probably a wise move.
For the Giants its a bit odd to see Devon Smith left on the emergency list though. Perhaps there’s still a concern with his fitness – otherwise, you’d think he probably comes in for Matt de Boer.
For Richmond, they basically have their best 22 on the park here and while there’s always debate, there’s no real need to change it.
This is the 22 that, if they get the opportunity, they will take into grand final day.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Prediction
If these two teams play the same way that they both have over the past few weeks, then the Tigers should win this one after a bit of an arm wrestle.
If Richmond don’t bring the same level of pressure that they did against Geelong, then GWS have every chance of cracking them open and slicing them up with their superior skills.
The Tigers’ ability to maintain that intensity after a week’s break due to the bye is therefore crucial. I reckon they probably have.
Richmond Tigers to win by 24 points.
Where: MCG
When: 4:45pm AEST
TV: Seven, live, Fox Footy, live
Betting: Richmond $1.62, GWS $2.35
Head-to-head: Richmond 6, GWS 2
Last five: Richmond 3, GWS 2
In finals: Never previously met