The NBA’s Most Valuable Player award always has its frontrunners, and for good reason.
Kevin Durant is coming off a dominant Finals performance, LeBron James is still playing as well as ever, Russell Westbrook just averaged a triple-double for an entire season and Kawhi Leonard is one of the best two-way players in recent memory.
All of these players have proven that they can play at an MVP level in the past, and their familiarity makes them the safe bets. But isn’t it more fun to bet on the upset and root for the underdog?
These are two candidates who, should they win, you can brag to your friends about picking for years to come (And if they lose? Just deny it forever). Their situation, team fit and projected development means that they have a shot at the NBA’s top individual crown. They may not be likely to win or even challenge, but they could emerge from the shadows and shock the league.
John Wall, Washington Wizards
John Wall finished tied for seventh in last year’s MVP voting. Coming into his eighth NBA season, there’s still room for growth and hope that he can achieve it. Wall put up a career high 23.1 points per game last year, averaged 10.7 assists per game to finish second in the league, and played solid defence for a good playoff team.
He’s also the type of player that would gain the attention of MVP voters, with a lot of highlight plays coming from his blinding speed, explosive finishing at the rim and ability to find passing angles. But he did all of this without a reliable three-point shot, the quintessential skill in today’s NBA.
He shot 32.7 per cent from deep last season, comfortably below the league average of 35.8 per cent. His mechanics are solid enough, and he’s neared that mark previously (35.1 per cent in 2015-16), so there is hope that he could at least be an average three-point shooter this season.
This would make a huge difference to not only his effectiveness, but the perception the NBA public has of him. The MVP is voted on by members of the NBA media, and any flaws will be picked apart during the process.
A decent shooting season would in itself vault Wall up the MVP ladder, and with good floor spacers in Bradley Beal and Otto Porter alongside him once more this season, it’s certainly possible.
The outside shot would be the icing on the cake, but even without it Wall’s chances should improve this season thanks to Washington’s weak competition.
With the Eastern Conference robbed of star power once again this offseason, the Wizards will see elite competition on a much less regular basis, which will make Wall’s job a lot easier. And while a team’s win total no longer has as much impact on MVP voting (looking at you, Westbrook), it’s certainly not irrelevant.
They’ll see Atlanta and Orlando four times each this season, a slew of other average-or-below teams three times, and the Western Conference elite only twice.
The Wizards didn’t make any significant roster changes over the offseason, but they should see internal improvement from Otto Porter, Bradley Beal (if healthy), Kelly Oubre Jr and Wall. In their final 49-33 record, that core finished the year on a 42-20 run after a sluggish start and took Boston to seven games in the playoffs. Expect their win total to increase this season, potentially into the mid-to-high 50s.
If Wall averages a 25 and 10 with solid all-around defence, and the Wizards push 60 wins, is he a legitimate MVP candidate? The answer is yes, and while none of that is guaranteed or even likely, it’s certainly not impossible.
Washington Wizards guard John Wall (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Rudy Gobert is already one of the best defenders in the NBA. Last season he led the league in blocks per game (2.6) and defensive win shares (6.0), and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. But with Utah’s leading scorer, All-Star and franchise player Gordon Hayward off to Boston this season, and with second-leading scorer George Hill also gone, there’s a big hole offensively that will need to be filled.
A lot of the extra responsibility will fall to Rodney Hood, who has a similar perimeter-oriented style and comparable per-possession numbers to Hayward. But don’t be surprised to see Rudy Gobert get a lot more touches on that end of the floor.
Last season, Gobert averaged an extremely efficient 14 points per game on 66.1 per cent shooting. He wasn’t needed to create much offense for himself, as 74.1 per cent of his shots came off assists, and he had little to no shooting range, with 84.6 per cent of his field goal attempts coming from within three feet of the basket.
He should still be able to get a lot of these shots with the pass-first Ricky Rubio now running the point, but expect him to also be given more post-up opportunities.
Whether or not he can take advantage of them is another matter entirely; last season he averaged just 0.9 points per possession on post-ups, placing him in the 58th percentile in the league.
He has the tools to be effective in the post, with a soft touch around the rim and ridiculously long arms to shoot over defenders, but he’ll need to put together the finished package this season. An extra season of experience alone should help this, as Gobert’s general rate of improvement over his career has been amazingly steep.
Gobert’s proficiency in the pick-and-roll should keep him afloat offensively either way. Last season he was in the 95th percentile of pick-and-roll scorers in the league, scoring 1.38 points per possession as the roll man.
His height and length give the ball handler a lot more points to pass at, and he’s a constant threat for lob passes at the rim. While Rubio is a below-average scorer and shooter, which diminishes the dual-threat element of the pick-and-roll, his passing means the roll man will always be in play.
If Gobert is open, even for a second, Rubio will find him in the best possible position. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gobert’s pick and roll scoring increase even more this season with a better passer running the show, and this alone should increase his overall offensive production.
Of course, Gobert’s calling card is his defence. Even without an advanced offensive game last season, he finished second in the league in overall win shares behind only James Harden.
That gives you an idea of just how dominant his defence was, and that shouldn’t change this upcoming season. He can stop a pick-and-roll in its tracks, as his length discourages both the ballhandler and the roll man from taking the ball anywhere near the paint.
In today’s seemingly all-offense NBA, Gobert is a throwback to the era of defensive centres, and the fact that he’s an outlier makes him even more valuable. The fact that he’s a ridiculously good outlier only adds to that.
Even as one of the best centres in the league, Gobert is only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential. If his improvement continues on the offensive end, he’s a serious chance to average 18-13-3.
If he does this and manages to keep Utah in the hunt in the Western Conference, he is a truly deserving MVP candidate.
Build your own ultimate team! Pick your key players and take a shot at big cash prizes every day with Draftstars. For great odds on NBA games every day head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.
Nikola Jokic has scored 32 points and grabbed 12 rebounds to lead defending NBA champions Denver past LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers…
There will undoubtedly be upset results here and there in the NBA playoffs but there’s an overwhelming sense of fait accompli that Boston will…
LeBron James is going back to the Olympics for the first time in 12 years. Steph Curry is headed to the games for the…
The only realistic threat to Boston’s chances of strolling through the Eastern Conference is a team that could still end up in the play-in…
Australian guards Dante Exum and Josh Giddey have both come up big for their NBA clubs in crucial wins in the lead-in to the…
Minnesota Timberwolves fans have endured plenty of pain in their 35 years of being a laughing stock in the NBA. In all that time,…
