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Write it down before the first kick-off: the All Blacks win, Los Pumas get the wooden spoon, and the Wallabies and the Springboks battle it out for second place.
It’s as predictable as a Dubai weather forecast.
The only exceptions seem to happen in World Cup years, when the tournament is shortened and New Zealand are focused more on getting their preparations for the bigger tournament.
Any competition with a foregone conclusion is flirting with long-term disaster. We watch sports because of the suspense.
Crowd numbers are already down in all corners and if we look how much attention the tournament gets outside the participating countries, the shadow gets longer and darker.
So what can be done?
The All Blacks are what they are; it is unlikely they will drop their standards. So, why give the strongest team by some distance the advantage of playing three of their four first games at home every year?
The Rugby Championship is unique in that the schedule is the same, year after year. Compare it to the Six Nations and how much focus there is on the draw every season. The Rugby Championship fixture announcements are downright boring, the only newsworthiness is the venue inside each country.
If we are ever going to have some excitement about who will claim the title when we reach the final round, the All Blacks need to lose at least one game. We also have to look at the travelling arrangements that the lopsided and predictable schedule creates.
From an international perspective, the diamond of the tournament is the Tests between the All Blacks and the Springboks. But when it is time for the first game, the Springboks travelling stats looks like this:
Game 1: Argentina home – 0 km
Game 2: Argentina away – 16,166 km (to and from)
Game 3: Australia away – 8309 km
Game 4: New Zealand away – 5341 km
The Springboks total travelled – 29,816 km
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New Zealand’s travel schedule before playing the Springboks in the first Test in New Zealand:
Game 1: Australia away – 4448 km (to and from)
Game 2: Australia home – 0 km
Game 3: Argentina home – 0 km
Game 4: South Africa home – 0 km
New Zealand total km travelled – 4448 km
Anyone calling that a fair arrangement has an open relationship with the truth. And let us not forget that when the Rugby Championship starts, the Springboks player already has more miles in the air from Super Rugby.
From the Argentine perspective, it is almost tragicomical. After the Sunwolves, the Jaguares collect most air miles during the Super Rugby season. Still, Los Pumas have to prepare for the first game of the international quad series in South Africa, travel back to Argentina for their home debut, and after that off to New Zealand and Australia.
I am not by any means saying mixing up the schedule would all the sudden make the Argies world-beaters (if they could play the first couple of rounds at home), but it is mind-boggling that the weakest team in the tournament have the toughest schedule. Year after year.
One big reason for this is the ARU’s old management with John O’Neill signed a ten-year deal that guarantees Sydney to always host the first game of the tournament, and that match has to be a Bledisloe Cup fixture. The reasons behind that are the Wallabies don’t want to play any home Tests when the playoffs in AFL and NRL are played (and that point I understand) and they want to kick off the tournament with a bang.
But is it really working? Hell, no.
Should the Rugby Championship be hostage due to a deal signed by O’Neill? Hell no, I say again.
My suggestions for a schedule for 2018 looks like this.
Round 1
Argentina-Australia
South Africa-New Zealand
Round 2
Argentina-New Zealand
South Africa-Australia
Round 3
New Zealand-Argentina
Australia-South Africa
Round 4
New Zealand-South Africa
Australia-Argentina
Round 5
South Africa-Argentina
New Zealand-Australia (this is the grand finals weekend in Australia)
Round 6
Australia-New Zealand
Argentina-South Africa
As a bonus, the third Bledisloe will be played right after the first two, making it almost a proper series again. They could probably even look at adding a fourth Test again and make October the Bledisloe month.
The 2019 edition of the tournament will be shortened due to the World Cup, but why not invite Japan for that one (every team would play four matches)?
A future inclusion of Japan is – probably – already on the cards. And to help the new team, let them play all four games in Japan, if a deal about revenue sharing can be agreed.
This provides optimal preparation for the World Cup and chances are there will be a big rugby buzz in the country with the World Cup just around the corner, so why not take advantage of that?
What say you, Roarers?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.