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Pressure tends to force a team into playing a certain way.
Syria were extremely defensive and willing to secede huge portions of possession to their opponents in their first seven group fixtures.
But as the group stage went on, and having scored just two goals in those seven games, Syria’s negative stance became more self-defeating than self-preserving.
A streak of seven Group A games with one or fewer goals was suddenly snapped, as two 2-2 draws and a 3-1 win snatched a playoff berth, quite literally at the last minute.
This second iteration of the Syrian team was a team under pressure, and their volatile demeanour in those breakneck final group games will likely be the one the Socceroos meet in Malaysia tonight (11:30pm AEDT), and then again in Sydney next Tuesday.
All-or-nothing playoffs have just as high stakes as all-or-nothing group games, and Syria’s best chance of taking control of the tie will be the first leg in Krubong.
They will not want to have to enter the second match, in front of a packed Australian crowd, with a deficit to make up.
As such, the best way for the Socceroos to prepare for the match in Malaysia is to look at how Syria played in that final group match. It is the most recent and relevant examples of Syria’s form and tactical approach; a game played against favoured opposition, in a crunch atmosphere, with everything at stake.
Against Iran in their final group game, the Syrians set up with a flat bank of four defenders, two defensive midfielders, and a front four that sprawled across the full width of the field. It was a lineup that sacrificed an offensive midfield presence in favour of the ability to send long balls over the top to a populated front line on the break.
The modus operandi was this; draw the Iranians out into the Syrian defensive half, often by allowing undisturbed progress through midfield, before breaking up the play and pumping the ball long to the streaking attackers.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
You can see here that as the Iranian attack is being thwarted, the Syrian attackers are already darting forwards, with players tracing divergent runs to stretch the defence.
When the Syrians were coaxed up the field, taking advantage of a successfully gathered long ball, they left themselves open to direct long-ball counters. By playing with such a huge personnel gap between defence and attack, inevitably the back line was left exposed when the two holding midfielders were drawn into an attacking move.
Almost no pressure was applied to the Iranian back line when they were passing out of defence. If this is to happen again on Thursday, Australia will be much better for it; clangingly awful distribution has been an unwanted hallmark of the Socceroos’ defensive play recently, with almost every defender bar Trent Sainsbury at fault at some point over the last eight games.
The Syrians only swarm on the ball when a neat Iranian turn breaches through the first line of Syrian defenders, and as soon as the move is broken up, a long ball is hit immediately.
Syria will be physical, raking a stud or two down the Australian attacking midfielders. Tom Rogic will be a heavily marked man, and he had better prepare for an evening of stern tenderisation.
Additionally, our defence – I’m thinking primarily of Trent Sainsbury, or Mark Milligan, if he is picked in the back line – should be prepared to step out and dribble or pass through the midfield, with their defensive colleagues making sure to ready themselves for a direct counter should a pass go awry.
Iran were easily allowed to play out of defence. Here, a midfielder drops into the back line to bring the ball out, unmolested until well past the halfway line.
Syria scored early in the match against Iran, after just 13 minutes, scuffing home a rebound from a distant free kick. It then took until the 25th minute for the Syrians to regain possession of the ball for more than a minute or two, and even then, it stemmed from a free kick that was won in their own half, and promptly smacked long into the box.
Again, that spell of possession ended with the Syrians scrambling back to try and cover another slick Iranian break. Their ability to balance when to commit numbers forward, and when to pack the defence seems to swing from extreme to extreme.
The Syrians will have no qualms playing negative, bare-faced anti-football if they scratch out an advantage, and Australia must not be crippled by frustration.
The final group game against Thailand was an ordeal for the Socceroos, even in victory, with every missed chance tearing another frayed edge off the soul. That game was something of an anomaly, to have that many chances go begging. Over two legs, Australia must be patient, confident that their efforts will be rewarded in time.
In spite of their flowing chances on the counter, Iran equalised and took the lead with two scratchy goals, one from a corner, the other from a long throw.
With half an hour to go, and now behind, we saw the Syrians at their most desperate, knowing a playoff was one goal away. Immediately, the intensity rose, with pressure now being applied to the Iranian defenders in their own defensive third.
Risks were taken, with Syrian defenders flying out into 50-50 challenges, leaving colleagues outnumbered, and huge parcels of pitch free to run into. They rode their luck and got their reward as the dying embers of hope were almost extinguished.
(AAP Image/Matt Roberts)
So, what does this mean for Australia? Well, they will be facing a deep, packed defence, as was expected. This explains Jamie Maclaren’s omission. His off-the-shoulder style of play works against higher back lines, but is less effective in Asia, against opponents like Syria.
The inclusion of Josh Risdon hints that – maybe, just maybe – Ange Postecoglou is thinking of a formation change. He’s used Matt Leckie as his first-choice right-wing-back in almost all the games since the introduction of the back-three system, so perhaps a return to a back four is coming.
That would give the team a more stable defence, with the fullbacks given a less attack-minded brief, and thus less likely to be caught out of position by the long balls Syria are sure to play early and often.
A two striker system, perhaps with Tomi Juric and Tim Cahill, would allow the latter to drop into the attacking midfield, making good use of his excellent hold-up play to disrupt the Syrian defensive plan, without sacrificing a strong presence up front.
Because Syria are likely to play a similar system – without any attack-minded central midfielders – a midfield pairing of Rogic and Aaron Mooy could get by, in spite of their defensive shortcomings. The recessed role might also help Tom Rogic find more space and time to affect things on the ball.
Leckie and Craig Goodwin on the wings would be a refreshing sight indeed. Ange will have James Troisi and Robbie Kruse poised as impact substitutes, and for heaven’s sake, can Mat Ryan please be given permission to clear his lines when need be.
Australia should win this playoff on quality alone, but a well-prepared, well-informed game-plan will only make the job easier. The Socceroos have a history of rising to the occasion, and will have to do so again.