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On the surface, the West Coast Eagles trading Andrew Gaff might seem like a really bad idea.
Analysing the Eagles’ list last month, I said that Gaff was a core player that West Coast should be doing everything they can to sign up for the long term.
However, I also said that the Eagles are headed for the edge of the cliff – with a number of retiring veterans and on a downward trend these past two years, they look set to miss finals in 2018 and probably by a decent margin.
What’s a player like Gaff to do then? In 12 months’ time he’ll be 26, in the prime of his career, for the first time ever a free agent, and playing at a club where the timing of the next premiership push is unclear.
On top of that, he’s a Victorian and, while he has always knocked it back in the past, there’s often been talk about him and the temptation to return home.
If Gaff were to leave West Coast as a free agent next year then the return would likely be an end-of-first-round draft pick, so pick 19 at the earliest.
Only the top five per cent paid players in the league attract band-one free agency compensation these days and while Gaff would surely get a lucrative offer, it wouldn’t be in that group.
To lose a core player and only receive a pick barely in the top 20 in return would be a heavy blow for the Eagles to cop. They would likely have the option of matching the offer and forcing a trade, but there’s no certain outcome there.
If the Eagles believe Gaff will go at the end of 2018, they should trade him now instead and get a higher return.
The ideal result here would be to send Gaff to St Kilda in exchange for either pick seven or eight.
The Saints have currency to spend at the trade table this year and a mature, classy midfielder like Gaff is just about the perfect recruit for them given where their list is at.
St Kilda have a great group of grunters and grinders, but nobody likes a cake without some icing on the top.
Gaff would provide exactly that, and pick seven or eight isn’t an unreasonable deal to make for a player of his quality with at least half a dozen years of elite footy left in the body.
However, the rumour mill suggests the Saints aren’t the only club interested in Gaff’s services. Essendon, Hawthorn and Melbourne could all be in the running.
Essendon could offer their first pick, No.11 – or West Coast could ask for the Dons’ 2018 first-rounder if they like that better.
Hawthorn have already sent away their first rounder for this year, so it would be their 2018 first-rounder – a bit of a gamble, as the Hawks are a hard team to read next year.
Melbourne would probably find it difficult to get a deal done, simply because their picks this year and next are currently tied up in their higher priority of trying to secure a trade for Jake Lever.
If they found themselves with a first-round pick to spare after getting that deal done they might enter the market – but they’ll be on the back foot if they do.
Of course, there is one potential complication – if Gaff is going to be a free agent next year, then why should a Victorian club give up a high pick for him now when they could sign him free in 2018?
As the old proverb says, a bird – specifically, in this case, an Eagle – in hand is better than two in the bush.
Gaff is a player with rare traits and the fact that four clubs are already making noise a year out makes it clear that there is a robust market for his services, which will only intensify as time goes on.
So much can change in 12 months and a club that thinks it can land Gaff now shouldn’t be confident that it can do the same at the end of 2018.
Instead, the wisest move may be to take a pre-emptive strike now before a bidding war begins in earnest – and while this may mean paying up, it’s worth it if you get your man.
Of course, I would still argue that West Coast should look to retain Gaff for the long term if at all possible.
They should be going to him right now with a contract extension that will make him an Eagle for life – or close to. If he signs then mission accomplished, and they save themselves a season of scrutiny and speculation.
If he balks, then maybe it’s time to be bold, float his name on the open market and target a top-ten draft pick here and now rather than risk having to spin the free agency compensation wheel next year.