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I have to admit, when I identified those games last week that I argued will be crucial in deciding the NRC top four, I didn’t really expect them all to still be in play going into this weekend’s final round.
But last weekend’s crazy round of results and upsets mean that not only will the NSW Country-Brisbane City and Queensland Country-Perth games still shape this season’s semi-finalists, but now their impact is even bigger again.
It remains a massive shame that all teams in action this weekend have been severely weakened by the Wallabies-Barbarians game, but the Fijian Drua is also affected this weekend, with their national squad including a number of players from the side that lost to Queensland Country in Lautoka on Saturday.
The round’s first match could not be more cut-throat, with both NSW Country and Brisbane City facing the same finals qualification scenarios, gunning for the same spot in the top four. Either side could finish as high as third, but they could also finish as low as seventh, emphasising the up-and-down nature of both teams’ season.
NSW Country might be slightly better placed heading into the match in Orange in that they won’t be without quite as many players as Brisbane City will. At last count Country will be without Andrew Kellaway and Sam Ward (both in the Barbarians squad), along with Kyle Godwin and Jake Gordon (Wallabies).
Brisbane City will lose Quade Cooper, Andrew Ready, Salesi Manu and Kane Douglas to international call-ups along with all the regular Wallabies, while flanker Adam Korczyk will also miss the game after picking up a rib injury against Melbourne a fortnight ago.
The Eagles pack will be largely unaffected, and I think this is where they take the edge for the game. No doubt they’ll be trying to slow Brisbane down as they did Perth a few weeks ago, but an extra week of finals-intensity football won’t be a bad thing for either side, and this will be an enthralling contest.
After the Wallabies-Barbarians have their fun in the sun on Saturday afternoon, attention turns to Fiji, when the Drua play their final home game of their maiden NRC season against the Sydney Rays in Suva.
The Drua really needed to beat Queensland Country last weekend to avoid the desperate scenarios that now face them in this game. As with NSW Country and Brisbane City, the Fijians need to win first and foremost to qualify. Win and they’re in. Lose and they might still make it, but they’ll be heavily reliant on other results.
But with the Fijian national team heading into camp in France ahead of their own spring tour and taking six or seven Drua regulars – including their starting front row and scrumhalf Frank Lomani – with them, a weakened Drua side now has to beat a Rays side buoyed by their huge upset win in Perth last weekend.
And after last weekend who’s so confident to say they can’t win? The Rays can’t finish higher than seventh, but they can really wreak havoc on the finals contenders.
On Sunday at TG Millner, Greater Sydney will be aiming for a second consecutive upset win to follow their knocking off of Brisbane City at Ballymore last weekend – this week they’re eyeing off the Canberra Vikings, who actually fared quite well last weekend despite having the bye.
The Vikings can take top spot with a win and put all the pressure on Queensland Country, but they could also lose their home final hosting rights completely if they take no points out of the Rams game and if the Drua win well.
The Rams will be without Taqele Naiyaravoro, which does remove a large attacking focus, but compared to the Vikings losing Tam Banks, Sam Carter, Rory Arnold, Joe Powell and others, they will enjoy relative continuity to go along with their newfound confidence.
This game will become a question of who can dominate the breakdown and which midfield can do the most damage, and it’s in both areas here that I think the Vikings still hold an edge. Their superb back row remains intact, as does their midfield pairing of Wharenui Hawera and James Dargaville.
To finish, Queensland Country will be looking to secure their first ever NRC minor premiership and all the home finals rights that come with it when hosting a now-desperate Perth Spirit side in Ipswich.
This will be the most Baabaas-affected game of the weekend; Queensland Country will be without four players all in excellent NRC form – Duncan Paia’aua, Izaia Perese and young flanker Liam Wright are all with the Wallabies, while Taniela Tupou will line up with the Barbarians.
Perth will be without upwards of dozen players, including half-a-dozen forwards alone and skipper Michael Ruru to the Baabaas plus another five to the Wallabies. Basically, if someone has starred for the Spirit this NRC season, they won’t be in the black and gold hoops this weekend coming.
But the fact Country lose key players in key positions as well makes this game a really interesting prospect. While the best of the Perth club scene can play with the freedom of having nothing really to lose – they’re already sixth and with huge mathematical hurdles in front of them – Queensland Country, on the other hand, are trying to secure a home ground advantage in their first ever finals series. The pressure will be huge.
Despite all the names missing, all four games really do loom as a worthy regular season finale.
Round 9
Saturday
NSW Country Eagles versus Brisbane City – 1pm AEDT at Endeavour Oval, Orange – Live streamed
Fijian Drua versus Sydney Rays – 5.30pm AEDT/4.30pm local at National Stadium, Suva, Fiji – Live on Fox Sports 501
Sunday
Greater Sydney Rams versus Canberra Vikings – 3pm AEDT at TG Millner Sportsground, Sydney – Live on Fox Sports 501
Queensland Country versus Perth Spirit – 5pm AEDT/4pm local at Queensland Group Stadium, Ipswich – Live streamed
Melbourne Rising have the bye.
NRC ladder
Queensland Country 28, Canberra 25, Fiji 21, NSW Country 18;
Brisbane City 18, Perth 16, Greater Sydney 13 Sydney 9, Melbourne 4.
Tips
Two from four last week, and even then I wasn’t overly confident about Queensland Country winning in Fiji.
I think NSW Country take it in Orange; City will be missing too many crucial players. Fiji and Canberra should still have enough quality and consistency to win, and in the last game I just can’t see how Perth can win missing pretty much their entire first XV. But then I didn’t see much chance of last week’s upsets either!
All four games can have some impact on the finals, so get to a game if you can and enjoy your NRC this weekend.