Really, it’s all about one horse, but the Cox Plate is always a must see.
It’s the best two minutes of Australian sport and we are set to see history with Winx winning three straight. Here’s my look at the great race.
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Speed
Kaspersky showed speed in the Toorak so I expect him to be positive from the gate, with Gailo Chop and Folkswood coming over and sitting near the speed. Winx has the chance to secure a 1/1 or 1/2 spot in the run. Royal Symphony and Humidor, especially the latter after last week, will ease back. Doubt they’ll be going warp speed.
History
Only the great Kingston Town has won three straight Cox Plates, between 1980-82. Sunline attempted the same piece of history in 2001 but fell short before running fourth in 2002 in her swan song. Winx has her chance, and will start the shortest price favourite in the great race since Pharlap in 1930 when starting $1.07.
Who can’t win?
Realistically, you can say every other runner outside the great mare. But in the fair dinkum stakes, Kaspersky, Seaburge and Hardham have zero chance of causing a boilover, or even filling a place. Each horse is out of form and clearly outclassed.
The A-grade chances
Winx is on another level. So we need to focus on the definite exotic chances. Royal Symphony is a lock. Three-year-olds always run well. The very good ones do. Champion three-year-olds more often than not win it. Happy Clapper has always run so well behind Winx and ran a beauty in this race last year. Gailo Chop is the other key contender off his Caulfield Stakes win.
The next tier
Humidor was ridden terribly in the Caulfield Cup and Darren Weir thought as much. If he is ridden properly, which is back and cold, he can surprise and fill a hole. Folkswood was dominant in the Cranbourne Cup. Just not sure if he is up to these. Yes, dominant Cranbourne Cup win, but against what?
The verdict
Just sit back and enjoy history with Winx, because I doubt we will see it again in our lifetime. We probably would have if So You Think had stayed in Australia, so this needs to be appreciated.
The lock for a place is Royal Symphony. As I said, three-year-olds always run well in this race and he has given the impression as if the 2000 metres will be perfect. Gailo Chop will do his thing near the speed and he loves to get down and dirty. Humidor next best with a cold ride.
Tips: Winx, Royal Symphony, Gailo Chop, Humidor.
$100 betting strategy
Double your money and put $100 on Royal Symphony to place.
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