- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
It is the same story each year – trying to pick the winner in the Melbourne Cup out of a field in which you could make a case for nearly two thirds of the runners.
More 2017 Melbourne Cup
» Race report: Rekindling wins
» Who came last
» Complete finishing order
» Watch video highlights replay
» Re-live the race with our live blog
» Regal Monarch’s horror fall
» Winning trifecta and quinella
» Winning exact and first four
2017 is no different.
Many once-a-year punters tend to go against the favourites, who are providing little value, and lets face it, not too many win it.
Victors usually come from double-figure odds.
What makes it hard is that there are horses who have not run in Australia, horses that are too lightly raced, horses that are not mature, horses out of form – and particularly horses who have the potential to win, but have those achievements overshadowed by more recent poor performances.
These are what is known as the roughies.
The ones that provide value if everything goes right on the day, and the better horses don’t live up to expectations.
It all comes down to the ‘luck in running’ on the day.
Take for example Rekindling. He has impressive form in the UK and Ireland, flying home to win the Group 2 Curragh Cup over Wicklow Brave, and backed that up with a second at the same track and then his last run fourth in mid-September in St Leger.
He has been known to finish races strongly, and owner Lloyd Williams, who is chasing his sixth Melbourne Cup, rates him right up there with his other favourites Almandin and Johannes Vermeer.
But all his form was on the other side of the world. We have not seen him run in Australian conditions, and he is still very young and inexperience could show. It is the dilemma facing the punters, whether to risk his potential up against his queries.
Then there’s Wall of Fire and Big Duke.
Wall of Fire showed his potential charging home from last in the Herbert Power over 2400 metres, to run second by just a length. He is expected to improve on that run, but he has never run at Group 1 level and is 0 from 2 over 3200m.
While Big Duke put in two impressive runs in the Metropolitan and St Leger Stakes at Randwick, but despite being short priced favourite did not live up to expectations in the Moonee Valley Cup. Many analysts are willing to forgive that run, but has it shown a weakness?
(AAP Image/Mal Fairclough)
Many will be backing Amelie’s Star because she’s an Aussie, up against the international raiders, and there is definitively a case.
She beat the favourite Almandin by more than three lengths in the Bart Cummings, and will meet Almandin again on the same weight scale. However, she was brought back to earth in the Caulfield Cup where she seemed to have every chance before finishing 11th out of 17. Question is how much can she improve, and which horse we are likely to see?
But they are not the only chances. Wider out in the market there’s Max Dynamite, who ran second to Prince of Penzance two years ago, and the Lloyd Williams camp says he’s been flying in trackwork.
Then there is Single Gaze, who ran second in the Caulfield Cup, which means the winner Boom Time also must be considered.
There’s also the top weight Hartnell, who until the ninth in the Caulfield Stakes had a string of five placings and is trained by a Cummings – the name synonymous with the Melbourne Cup, even if it is the late Bart’s grandson James.
Having said all that, the favourites could always live up to expectations.
A case can be made for most runners – as can be a case to risk them. One thing is for certain, they all cannot win – and putting too many in multiples will not result in much of a return.
There’s no point me rattling off any more of the form, as the way to find the winner is different and varied to different punters, albeit just as difficult. Everyone will come up with their own system.
At the end of the day, it is one of the longest flat races in Australia, with usually the biggest field, at group one level, and so many unknown factors with international runners.
Truth be told, it is a mugs game.
You have a better chance picking the winner of a midweek maiden – and guess what, you still get the same currency if successful.
But where is the fun in that? Just have a bit of fun, and remember gamble responsibly.
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.