Games against Wales always seem like a pretty big deal, such is the tradition and passion associated with the red jersey and the parochial Welsh crowd. But generally, as far results go, back-and-forth contests these are not.
Going into the clash at the Millenium Stadium, the Wallabies have only succumbed to the Welsh twice in the last 26 years. Only the All Blacks can boast a more dominant streak – they haven’t lost to Wales since the 1950s.
But it’s still a big game, even more so when you place it in the context of the first game of the United Kingdom tour. For the Wallabies, there are several personnel decisions to be made and what Wales opt to do could shape how those play out.
Firstly, who kicks goals? Foley is the incumbent but has struggled to land the ones that count. Reece Hodge was given the tee against Japan and went 9-from-9 as he routinely sent the ball into orbit via the goal posts.
Goal-kicking always plays a part on the spring tour. Games are generally not as open and free-flowing as the Rugby Championship and so the need to accrue points whenever possible increases.
Wales’ coach Warren Gatland appears set to shift Liam Williams from fullback to the right win in order to accommodate sharp-shooter Leigh Halfpenny at No. 15.
Against Japan, the Wallabies went big in the centres and enjoyed a great deal of success. The Japanese defensive line simply couldn’t cope with the physical challenge of Samu Kerevi and Tevita Kuridrani together.
With Israel Folau on sabbatical, it looks likely Kurtley Beale will stay at fullback, meaning the same centre pairing will likely line up against Wales.
The temptation must be there for Michael Cheika to bring in Karmichael Hunt to offer a more reliable defensive option at 12.
The centres weren’t tested defensively against Japan but they will be on Sunday. The Welsh have The Lions’ player of the series Jonothan Davies at 13 and Owen Williams looks set to play 12 for the hosts as Gatland searches for more creative options in attack.
Wales managed only one try against Australia in their last meeting and were completely nullified in the 2015 World Cup pool match at Twickenham.
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Wales have even taken the unprecedented step of holding an opposed scrum and lineout session against rivals England in order to prepare both sides for the incoming southern hemisphere invasion.
The 40-minute session was held behind closed doors and was monitored by referee Nigel Owens. Kiwi Glenn Jackson will be in charge for the weekend’s game, a referee that has struggled at times with managing the scrum contest.
The Wallabies scrum has impressed recently, showing signs of getting back to the dominance it enjoyed during the 2015 World Cup, but when you’ve got potentially slippery underfoot conditions and a former fly-half holding the whistle, the importance of having a reliable goal kicker is amplified.
Across the back row, Wales are suffering from a lack of depth at the open side flanker position.
Sam Warburton is still out with a neck injury, and backup Justin Tipuric has also missed training this week, casting doubt over his inclusion.
Ned Hanigan appears likely to get the nod at blindside flanker for Australia.
Despite his best efforts, Hanigan has struggled to make an impact at Test level since debuting against Fiji earlier this year. With Wales set to name two-metre tall Aaron Shingler at 6, however, the Wallabies will likely go with Hanigan for his height to offer a second option at the lineout alongside Rob Simmons.
The time for tinkering appears to be over for Cheika, though he may be cautious of showing Eddie Jones his full hand this weekend.
The Wallabies have some scores to settle on this tour but, before Twickenham, there is a job to do in Cardiff.
CJ
Guest
Wales should not be underestimated. I think they will be up for this game at home, buoyed after the success of the Lions Tour. Bit like the Wallabies were due for luck to run their way against the ABs. Should be a good game.
Ed
Guest
I checked his stories in the week leading to the first Bledisloe and not once did he mention the possibility of a weak Wallabies defence. It was all about how Kurtley was going to unleash Israel. All upside, no downside. His crack probably at posters on the Roar and GAGR: "For whatever reason, Hanigan cops more criticism than any other Wallaby. His introduction to the Test side attracted the attention of the online trolls, flummoxed that he was picked in seven consecutive starting XVs to begin his career..." http://www.theage.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/from-nelson-mandela-to-internet-trolls-wallaby-ned-hanigans-year-of-learning-20170929-gyrrtx.html
Cliff (Bishkek)
Guest
Thanks!!!
bridget
Guest
I believe georgina is on maternity leave
AGbanger
Guest
I think she might be on maternity leave..
Alexander Clough
Roar Pro
Just looked it up and apparently the last thing she's written for SMH was back in April. Possibly working on a book?
Clifto
Guest
What you smoking Ralph?
scubasteve
Guest
@highlander i think it's a fair call. at wing he could be coming up in field on offense and playing that destructive ball runner role. I am yet to see a game where he has failed in his role at wing. i would imagine he scares the shite out of the other team.
Highlander
Guest
I think you need to have 1 genuine line out option and 1 secondary option in your loose forward trio, fewer compromises needed in the looseforward mix if your 8 can jump. With McMahon and Hooper Aus have a real metre eaters with the ball, both in tight and in the wider channel.Not convinced the big fella could get up to speed quick enough and remembering you are generally not carrying against 1 95kg weakling in close. Also helps if 8 has a few rugby brains about them, not sure he is the greatest game reader. I will always defend the loose 3 against the idea that fails in other areas can easily fit in, but I am very biased in those views.
scubasteve
Guest
@highlander do you really feel an 8 should be able to jump? From what I have observed with our smaller 6/7 we could really do with drive and runs up the middle. Especially if we have a smaller 12 as well. Coleman can't do it all on his own.
Highlander
Guest
Decent is a mouthpiece for the ARU writing puff promotional pieces for the SMH. Must be a horrible job. Access traded off for constant promotion. He is truly awful.
Highlander
Guest
What do you reckon his lateral,defence from a scrum would be like. Or his line out. Or actual head on defending vs real forwards Or how fast could he get up to,speed carrying the ball off a scrum. Not sure why everyone thinks a fat bloke who can’t do most of his jobs on the wing would make an 8.
DaveR
Guest
Pirates you are right about the breakdown issue. With the 3 flankers Hannigan, Hooper and McMahon we are going to get a good bit of breakdown ball as well as good attack, and the defense should be OK as well. But Wales are playing the tackling bulldozer Toby Faletau at 8, who tends to play tight in the set plays. At 113kg he is much bigger than any of our back rowers. It will be interesting to see if McCalman comes off the bench early, as he is a more traditional 8 and close to Toby's weight now. McCalman has not had a lot of games in 2017, but has been impressive in his last 5 outings. If I was more confident of his match fitness I would have picked him at 8.
Reverse Wheel
Guest
Just keep saying it, maybe it will become true.
Reverse Wheel
Guest
Nice effort with the nick. Still worth more than your comment.
DaveR
Guest
Hunt is also significantly underdone wrt match fitness in 2017. The ABs would never pick anybody having missed such a lot of the SR season.
scubasteve
Guest
but can Naiyaravoro turn and run (in the event of the kick down field or chip and kick)? He is a beast with the ball though. Is it not possible to train him as a 8? I am interested in the Roar's followers opinion on this. Is it that he wouldn't have the gas tank? as a crash up the middle 8 he would be a beast i reckon.
John Spencer
Roar Rookie
Agree also CB and Jimbo. Would you consider adding the big Fijian Waratah who played in the centres for the Barbarians in Sydney, Naiyavoro, is it? Man of that match in my opinion. I hope he forces his way into RWC contention next year in the Super comp. Imagine the damage he would have done in Yokohama last weekoutside the two K's! He is a real crowd pleaser too and all with KB and Izzy will excite and lift our crowds. Can't wait.
Mitchell
Guest
Foley cant kick straight. dropped vital points in the 2nd bledisloe. Hodge is a much better kicker.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Wales are packed with super stars of the game and the stats prove the WB’s will lose so there is no point in playing. Mr Cheika has super-secret reasons for selecting Ned (clearly a master stroke). The main thing will be the kicks, probably win the game. If Wales loses it will be the ref’s fault, Glenn Jackson is Wales bogey ref in any event. Anyway, that’s how it was in my day. P.S. Did you see how big those Boks were?