Saturday sure things: Emirates Stakes Day preview

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    Cup week at Flemington wraps up this Saturday with Emirates Stakes Day, with the 2000 metre Group l feature attracting a high-quality field. Here is my look at the quaddie legs on the program.

    Race 6: 7News Matriarch Stakes 2000 metres
    If she runs 2000 metres, I think Heavens Above wins. Her Myer Classic run against the tempo last Saturday was outstanding. If I knew she’d strongly run the ten furlongs, I’d declare her, because her speed figures are far superior.

    Falika is low flying for Greg Eurell, and the Pinker Pinker winner has been set for this race, with two hard 2000-metre runs under the belt. Prompt Respone is like Heavens Above. Class factor by a fair margin, but I’m just not sure she runs 2000 metres. Consommateur is the knockout. Great splits in the Tesio behind Lubiton despite finishing last, and we know the record Mick Kent has in these races for mares.

    Heavens Above on top ahead of Falika, Prompt Response and Consommateur.

    Race 7: Darley Classic 1200 metres
    The proven and most reliable horse here is Redzel, so I have to side his way. Yes, he won the Everest with some aid from the bias, and the form out of it since has been ordinary, but he is just bomb-proof and has drawn the right part of the track, as is Chautauqua, who looks to have taken no harm from whatever happened in the gates on Manikato Night.

    I am scared stiff of Impending. He has an excellent, fresh run and his recent jump out was top shelf. Look out for an improved showing from Spieth. He wasn’t too bad in the Manikato and now he seems to be reaching peak condition.

    Redzel, for me, to beat Chautauqua, Impending and Spieth.

    Race 8: Emirates Stakes 2000 metres
    I was liking Tom Melbourne, but he is out, so I am siding with Folkswood. I thought he had a great run in the Cox Plate and was one of the better runs of the beaten brigade. The worry is that he may have had his heart broken by the mighty mare, like so many have this Spring. But he’s in the right stable.

    Tosen Stardom could be the big improver up to 2000 metres. Tempo was too slow in the Kennedy Mile and his Japanese form at 2000 metres-plus is high class. Cliff’s Edge has the weight advantage and just maps super. How much petrol is left in the tank, though? Another suited up in trip is It’s Somewhat, which was an outstanding third up last prep.

    Folkswood to win ahead of Tosen Stardom, Cliff’s Edge and It’s Somewhat.

    Race 9: Emirates Airline Handicap 1400 metres
    I reckon in six to 12 months Tamasa will be a Group l horse. Gee, he looks exciting for the Weir camp, and his win on Bendigo Cup Day was unbelievable. Andaz comes through the Coolmore and his run was great, I thought. He is another that will be top shelf this time next year.

    Tezlah didn’t beat much at the Valley, but I love the way he knuckled down and wanted the win. Best roughie of the meeting is Surjin. Very good splits against the bias last time and up to 1400 metres on a bigger track are big ticks.

    Tamasa on top to beat Andaz, Tezlah and Surjin.

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    The Crowd Says (1)

    • November 11th 2017 @ 10:41am
      Aransan said | November 11th 2017 @ 10:41am | ! Report

      The O’Briens have been successful with Northern Hemisphere 3y.o.s in Adelaide and Rekindling. How will The Taj Mahal go? Weight for age for a 4y.o. in November is 58kg, making an allowance for a Northern Hemisphere 3y.o. should place them as a May 3y.o. which gives 55.5kg over 2,000m. On this basis 4y.o.s in the race are given an extra 0.5kg and The Taj Mahal has been given an extra 2kg. They seem to keep changing the wfa scale, I thought in the past that 4y.o.s were given 9 stone (57.15 kg) regardless of distance. The Taj Mahal seems to be badly weighted to the extent of about 1.5kg.

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