Who will feel the Force in Super Rugby 2018?

Where is the Force in Australian rugby? That is not intended as either a rhetorical or an abstract question. It is a question about how much of the Force’s quality manpower the other four Super Rugby franchises have managed to sign up.

If there was one clear positive related to the reduction from five to four franchises over the past season, it was the opportunity to strengthen the existing teams with ex-Western Force players.

This consolidation was essential for the plan to have any real substance whatsoever. The introduction of greater squad depth – and in many cases better starting quality – will give all four Australian sides a chance to improve their win-loss ratios in 2018, and in particular to play the New Zealand franchises on more even terms than they have been able to do over the past two seasons.

One of the spin-offs from that critical period after the closure of the Western Force was announced is that the axis of power in Australian may be shifting further southwards, to Melbourne and Canberra. The Brumbies and the Rebels especially were the chief beneficiaries of the player and coach movement out of Perth, and those clubs stand to make the most improvements in the coming season.

The Melbourne Rebels struck a key blow by signing Australia’s most impressive young coach, Dave Wessels, at the end of September. The signing of Wessels ensured many of his charges – who, like Adam Coleman, were still making up their minds about their futures – would follow in his footsteps down to Victoria.

Wessels set a much larger template than even he knew when he commented, “From a loyalty perspective – and I know we haven’t had the greatest couple of months here in Perth with all the speculation about the Force – but the position I’m in, I owe it in large part to the people within Australian rugby.

“A lot of the (Force) staff and players will now have the opportunity to come with us to Melbourne and I feel that if I turned my back on Australia now, I would live the rest of my life wondering where it could have ended up.”

Wessels was under pressure to sign up as the next coach of Munster at the time, and according to David Nucifora (the Australian heading up Ireland’s high performance department), a deal was ‘close’.

The fact Ireland is enjoying a true golden period in its rugby history at present gave Wessels’ decision to stay in Australia a positive global context. In the event, only two significant ex-Force players have been lost to Europe – hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau to Leicester, and back three Luke Morahan to Bristol, both clubs in England.

Munster would also have been hoping that the appointment of Dave Wessels would tow Adam Coleman along with him to Ireland. As the premier second-rower in Australia, it would have been a huge blow to the domestic game if Coleman had left to go north.

(Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

But when Wessels decided to stay put after the Munster interview in late September, so did Coleman. As the Wallaby lineout leader put it succinctly, “Dave was a big factor and I also wanted to stay in Australian rugby… I’m excited to get down to Melbourne.

“There have been some great signings who have nicely added to the talented guys already there. We’ll be aiming to give Super Rugby a good shake next year.”

Other key players like Jono Lance, the Haylett-Petty brothers and Richard Hardwick swiftly followed suit, with Rebels CEO Baden Stephenson adroitly keeping space open on the Melbourne roster for the new arrivals.

That space was not so obvious on the rosters of the either the Reds or the Waratahs, with the Reds, in particular, having spent big before the beginning of the 2017 season on new contracts for Quade Cooper, Scott Higginbotham, Stephen Moore and George Smith.

There is a distinct possibility that the balance of power may now move away from the traditional power bases of the game in Sydney and Brisbane towards the ‘outsiders’ in Canberra and Melbourne – at least at Super Rugby level.

As Wessels said, “I always felt that the Rebels and the Force were bound together because we both lived with all that anxiety as the two clubs waiting for the axe. So as far as I’m concerned, it’s the Force and the Rebels against the rest of Australian rugby.”

Wessels could justifiably have included the Brumbies on the list with the Rebels and Force. Historically, the Brumbies experienced the same cold draught of air from the big two unions when they were founded back in 1996. They took on their cast-offs and they derived strength from their position fighting the odds.

Melbourne, under a fighter like Wessels, may now do the same.

It is probably no coincidence that it is the Rebels and Brumbies who provided the open doors for ex-Force players, taking on board 12 and four respectively. The Waratahs signed only three (thanks to the recent addition of Curtis Rona) and the Reds none at all.

Looking at the four rosters as they stand right now, it is hard to avoid the impression that it is the Rebels and Brumbies who have the most immediate improvement in them.

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Here is a summary of what all four 23-man squads may look like on match-day, with everyone fit and raring to go:

Top Wallabies or imports area highlighted in bold, with those on the tier just below it in italics.

It is immediately obvious that the Waratahs are depending on an established core of top Wallabies, fortified by Rob Simmons in the second row and a new centre pairing of Kurtley Beale and Curtis Rona, to do the business.

The Reds, meanwhile, have been stripped back root-and-branch by their new head coach Brad Thorn, and he will be looking to grow a whole new generation of young players, particularly in the tight five and at 9, 10 and 12, in his new Queensland culture. It will take time.

By contrast, the Brumbies and Rebels look ready to go. If Christian Lealiifano can continue the progress he has shown on the comeback trail with Ulster, they will have a threatening set of backs in 2018, while the deficiencies in last season’s back row will be remedied by the return of David Pocock and the signing of Isi Naisarani.

The improvement in personnel on the Rebels’ roster is nothing short of spectacular. The second row, for example, has turned from a disaster area into an oasis of tremendous strength overnight, with Coleman, Matt Philip and one of the great global lineout thinkers in Geoff Parling, not to mention a bona fide international in the shape of Alex Toolis (who started for Scotland against the Wallabies back in June) waiting in the wings.

The backs, under the management of Will Genia and Jono Lance in the halves, look potent with genuine Fijian strike-power on either wing.

The one remaining area of concern is a group of ex-Force players who are at the time of speaking still unsigned. That group includes prop Pek Cowan, back-rower Ben McCalman, and halfback Ryan Louwrens.

The Rebels should sign Cowan immediately, as loosehead could be a potential weakness as things stand, while McCalman would solidify the back-row options at either the Reds or the Tahs considerably. Signing with the Reds would give Louwrens an opportunity to start ahead of James Tuttle in 2018.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Summary
Now that the dust has begun to clear, in playing if not political terms, the positives of the return to four franchises should bring a genuine sense of excitement and hope to Australian Super Rugby supporters.

The playing resources of the establishment outsiders, the Rebels and the Brumbies, have been significantly strengthened. The decision of Dave Wessels and the great majority of his Force players to stay in Australian rugby, rather than move abroad, will prove to be both a short and long-term positive.

In 2018, the balance of playing power could move further south than it ever has done before, with the Rebels and Brumbies emerging as genuine contenders in the Super Rugby tournament.

The political implications of their success, if it happens in 2018, could have some interesting repercussions on the structure of Australian rugby as a whole.

Paradoxically, the gospel of the union game may spread more quickly in domestic terms with four teams than it ever did with five, especially if the new ‘outsider’ in Victoria can achieve sustained success with so many of the playing and coaching pieces in place.