With the elimination of a plethora of seeds on the first two days of competition, the Australian Open draw has taken a much different form than predicted.
The biggest beneficiaries of this will be the women in the lower half of the draw – with 2017 finalist and semi-finalist in Venus Williams and Coco Vandeweghe being knocked out, Caroline Wozniacki, Elina Svitolina and Jeļena Ostapenko look like the only seeds on this side capable of winning the title.
Belinda Bencic, who ousted Williams, looks a near certainty to make at least the fourth round, where she and Daria Gavrilova could square off.
One of Kaia Kanepi, Monica Puig, Carlo Suarez Navarro or Timea Babos will end up in the fourth round, which not many would have predicted, given Vandeweghe and Dominika Cibulková were in that section of the draw. All four are talented players, and could cause some headaches.
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Petra Kvitova’s elimination also opens up the top half of the draw, with world number one Simona Halep the main beneficiary – she could now instead face Andrea Petkovic, who defeated Kvitova.
However, it remains stacked with seeds, so whoever progresses will have a much tougher path than those in the bottom half.
For the men, the top half has opened up with John Isner’s loss to Aussie Matt Ebden, Kyle Edmund’s superb victory over 2017 US Open finalist Kevin Anderson, and unheralded Japanese player Yuichi Sugita’s win over eighth seed Jack Sock.
This means Sugita, ranked 41, won’t have to face a higher-ranked opponent between now and the quarter-finals, with one of Edmund (ranked 49), Denis Istomin (60), Nicoloz Basilashvili (61), Andreas Seppi (76), Ivo Karlovic (89), Rubens Bemelmans (117), Yoshihito Nishioka (168) guaranteed to make the quarters.
Istomin and Seppi, in particular, pose threats given their records of defeating high seeds at Grand Slams (Istomin ousted Novak Djokovic in the second round last year, while Seppi has previously defeated Roger Federer).
On an unrelated note, Anderson and 2017 US Open women’s champion Sloane Stephens join the growing band of players to win or make the final of one Slam and then lose the first round of the next.
Aussies Ebden and John Millman have the chance to move into the latter stages of a Grand Slam for the first time – Millman looks on track to face Rafa Nadal in the third round, while Ebden would face Rafa in the fourth round.
If Nick Kyrgios can defeat either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Denis Shapovalov in Round 3, the draw opens up for him, with a fourth round against one of the aforementioned eight unfancied players awaiting.
With Vandeweghe and Williams out, it also opens up the draw for Gavrilova, who would have been slated for a possible fourth round against Williams.
Olivia Rogowska also has a golden opportunity to make the third round of a Slam for the first time – she faces Ukrainian 15-year-old Marta Kostyuk in the second round.
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