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Second BBL07 semi-final: Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades preview and prediction

1st February, 2018
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Rashid Khan of the Adelaide Strikers is one of this season's best stories. (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
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1st February, 2018
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After last night’s shock first semi-final result, where Hobart absolutely thumped Perth at the new stadium, the Adelaide Strikers and Melbourne Renegades face off in the second semi for a chance to host the BBL07 Final.

The Strikers’ hopes of finishing in top spot collapsed in a heap against the Perth Scorchers in last week’s farewell to the WACA, but a home semi-final at what is sure to be a rocking Adelaide Oval is a decent consolation.

They’ll also be hoping that that’s their last hiccup for the summer, because there’s no second chances from here.

I’m still a touch surprised the Renegades won through to the top four, I’ll admit it. In the run home, I had them losing their last few games and missing the four completely, but instead they turned in arguably their two best batting performances of the summer to beat the Sydney Thunder in Canberra and Brisbane in Brisbane to finish third. But I’m still not sure about their chances of progressing.

Second vs third should be close, but I’m not so sure it is.

Adelaide have been well-served throughout the summer, with four players notching more than 200 runs for the series, and Jonathan Wells making some good contributions down the order, too.

Four bowlers have taken more than ten wickets for the summer, too, with two of them – Rashid Khan and Ben Laughlin – among the form bowlers in all of #BBL07.

The spread of performers isn’t quite so wide for the Renegades. Three players have passed 200 runs for the tournament, and Aaron Finch and the man who replaced him, Matt Short have a hundred each as well.

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Dwayne Bravo has 17 wickets and Kane Richardson has 12 – 8/57 in the last two games, mind you – and that’s kind of it.

Four other bowlers have between six and nine wickets, and of all their wicket-takers, only Mohammad Nabi is conceding less than a run-a-ball.

The Strikers thought they were going to be without skipper Travis Head, but he was released back from the Australian squad to lead the home side on Thursday.

Gun ‘Keeper-bat Alex Carey and towering quick Billy Stanlake remain quarantined and it was unclear at the time of writing which player will drop out of the 13-man squad to make way for Head.

That Head was released at all is a bit curious, though. If Head can re-join the Australian squad on Saturday morning as he’s going to, why couldn’t Carey, Stanlake, Finch, Richardson be released as well?

And why couldn’t Ashton Agar, Andrew Tye, and D’Arcy Short have played in Thursday night’s first semi-final? It’s just the latest nonsense.

Travis Head

(AAP Image/David Moir)

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The Renegades will, however be without Finch and Richardson, though they haven’t had Finch for several weeks now anyway, and Short has been batting well at the top.

They have regained Cameron White from what he admitted himself was a ODI recall that didn’t go well, and he’ll captain the side.

Joe Mennie comes in for Richardson, for what will be his first BBL game in twelve months. Brad Hogg wasn’t named in the red-Melbourne squad, and that might – really, this time – be him done at the ripe old age of 47.

Adelaide have been bat-firsters all tournament, winning the toss in four of their ten games, and winning all four matches.

The Strikers also batted first in two of their other three wins. Clearly, they believe their strengths are in their death bowling, and it’s worked very well this summer.

The Renegades won the toss six times and bowled every time, winning four of those games. But then, their best two performances of the year came batting first in the aforementioned last two games in Canberra and Brisbane, so they don’t mind being sent in at the moment, either.

The Adelaide Oval has been the Strikers’ fortress this year too, where they’ve won all four games played in the City of Churches in BBL07 (the Strikers’ only ‘home’ loss came in their game played in Alice Springs).

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In fact, you have to go back to their last home game of BBL06 to find the last time the Strikers lost in Adelaide. And the Strikers’ opponents that night?

The Melbourne Renegades.

Semi-final 2: Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Renegades, Adelaide Oval

Adelaide Strikers squad
Colin Ingram (c), Harry Nielsen (wk), Wes Agar, Jono Dean, Rashid Khan, Ben Laughlin, Jake Lehmann, Michael Neser. Liam O’Connor, Peter Siddle, Jake Weatherald, Jon Wells, Nick Winter, Travis Head (one to be omitted, you’d presume)

Melbourne Renegades squad
Cameron White (c), Dwayne Bravo, Tom Cooper, Marcus Harris, Mackenzie Harvey, Jon Holland, Tim Ludeman (wk), Joe Mennie, Kieron Pollard, Matt Short, Chris Tremain, Beau Webster, Jack Wildermuth

Tip
The Renegades should be buoyed by the new incentive of being able to host the BBL Final, after Hobart did both the Renegades and Adelaide a massive favour on Thursday night.

Melbourne’s best performances of the series have come in their last two games, but it’s debateable whether that’s enough to overcome what has been a pretty consistent Adelaide Strikers side who have now been gifted the availability of Travis Head.

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In fact, I don’t think it’s debatable at all; I think the home side should win this well.

Strikers to earn another chance to fill the Adelaide Oval this summer.

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