Here’s where Tom Lynch will play in 2019

Josh Elliott Editor

By Josh Elliott, Josh Elliott is a Roar Editor

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    At some point between now and October, if he hasn’t done so already, Tom J Lynch, co-captain of the Gold Coast Suns, will make what is likely to be the biggest decision of his career, maybe even of his life.

    The choice can be stated simply if you wish to do so. Stay with Gold Coast, where he will have spent eight years of his career by the end of this season, or move elsewhere – probably Victoria.

    But to state it simply belies the significant complexities both in terms of what decision Lynch makes, and how it works out in practice.

    I’m going to talk through all of those complexities, but don’t worry, this won’t be all waffle for no reward. I’ll let you know at the end what my very, very, very early tip for Tom Lynch’s guernsey colours in 2019 is.

    The money

    Show me the money! Look, if we’re all willing to shelve the romantics for a little while, we can agree that the vast majority of players who elect to move from one club to another do so because money is a factor, often the major factor.

    That’s what makes Tom Lynch’s case unique in a lot of ways though because most likely if he does decide to don new colours in 2018, he’ll be doing it for less cash than he could have earned by remaining with the Suns.

    We’ll talk more about where the Suns are at a little later on, but suffice to say for now that given their lack of mature players, they probably have as much salary cap room available for 2019 and beyond as any club in the league, if not more.

    They would also be well aware of just how important retaining Lynch is to the longterm future of their club. Yes, they’ve got a decent amount of young talent on the books, but that alone is not enough to become a top team. Mature, talented leaders like Lynch are badly needed at the Suns.

    In additional to that, remember that the AFL has license to offer Lynch extra money outside the salary cap in order to stay in Queensland and promote the game there. What’s more, they’ve already publicly raised it as an option.

    “If he re-signed with the Suns and he’s the right guy to be an ambassador on the Gold Coast and Queensland, we’d do that. And he’s the type of guy who would,” said Gillon McLachlan last year.

    Gold Coast are reportedly already paying Lynch close to a million this year and you’d imagine that, for the sole reason of the welfare of their club, they’d be happy to pay that much or even more annually on a longterm deal.

    Chip in an extra mil a year from Gill’s wallet and if Lynch keeps up the poker face long enough he could be rewarded with something like $15 million over seven or eight years.

    Sure it sounds extreme, but the AFL is no stranger to throwing away good money after bad on the Gold Coast.

    It’s just not possible that any of the seventeen other clubs in the league is going to be able to make Lynch an offer that’s even comparable to that, and if this one purely comes down to a question of blank cheques, then Lynch will be in red and gold for a long time to come.

    What kind of offers will float around for him though? At the moment in the wacky and wild time that is pre-season, I’ve seen some big numbers floated by those who like to float numbers, and the most common of them has been around the $1.5 million mark.

    I’m a bit of sceptic there however, for two reasons. The first of them is – and Ryan Buckland will explode from joy at the end of this sentence – smallball.

    Now let’s get one thing straight, I am by no means looking to baptise myself in Ryan’s Ben Brown-hating Church of Smallball just yet, quite the opposite in fact. To begin with, it occurs to me that but for the result of one game last year (admittedly the most important one) we could all be praising Adelaide’s land of the giants forward line and hailing that as the archetype to follow in the modern era.

    However, I do believe we’ve hit a patch in the AFL – and who knows how long it will last – where simply being tall is no longer a reason why you can get a game or a spot on a list.

    The past few years have seen a number of truly bog average talls exit the game, and I suspect in 2018 we’re going to see less and less examples of AFL clubs playing tall players for ‘structural’ reasons unless those talls are actually serious talents.

    That’s not really the sort of thing that would hurt a player of Lynch’s quality. But, I may be wrong, and the changes that happen over the next 12 months may be more radical than that. If so, clubs may seriously reconsider just how badly they need a player of his type, and just how much of their salary cap they are willing to allocate to one.

    Secondly is this: Tom Lynch kicked 44 goals last year.

    That’s by no means a poor return and yes he did kick 66 goals the year before, but 44 goals is not worth $1.5 million and clubs aren’t buying 2016 Tom Lynch, they’re buying 2019 Tom Lynch.

    What kind of year does he have this year? All kinds of factors could influence that, but the big ones will be how he handles speculation over his contract, and whether or not the Gold Coast midfield – built largely of chewing gum, prayer, and Jarryd Lyons – can provide him with good service.

    If Lynch kicks another mid-40s total of goals this year, are you happy for your club to spend $1.5 million a year on him for a term of six, seven, eight years? It’d be a roll of the dice to say the very least.

    Personally, I’m tipping that if Lynch does move clubs, it’ll be for a deal in the range of $900,000 to $1.2 million per year. As we’ve said, that’s so much less than he could earn at the Suns, so, why’s it a chance to happen?

    Tom Lynch Gold Coast Suns AFL 2017

    (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

    The Suns

    Maybe this is a controversial thing for a North Melbourne fan to say, but the Gold Coast Suns are the worst positioned team in the AFL, and it’s not even close.

    It would be easy to point out the number of high picks the Suns have taken in in recent years – four top tenners in the 2016 draft alone – but I don’t think there are any AFL fans out their naive enough to believe that guarantees or even makes likely success.

    From observation outside the four walls of AFL clubs it seems that a crucial part of developing young players is having mature, talented leaders who they can learn off, and Gold Coast simply do not have this.

    Their mature talent is comprised of guys like Michael Barlow, Pearce Hanley, and Matt Rosa – players who joined the Suns because, let’s face it, they just didn’t really have a whole lot in the way of other reasonable options.

    Really the Suns’ best quality players are names like David Swallow, Steven May and of course Lynch – the small few who were drafted there early and haven’t opted to leave just yet, but have spent most of their careers playing out of tin sheds and lacking the kind of mentorship they’re now being asked to provide to a new generation.

    It’s a problem that doesn’t appear to have any kind of easy fix because quality players just do not want to come to the club. The Suns tried every avenue possible to get a mature player from Hawthorn or Geelong in the past two years in trades from O’Meara and Ablett, for no bites.

    It led to them doing something desperate – coughing up $800,000 a year and pick No.2 in the draft for Lachie Weller, a player who is talented certainly but was clearly overpaid and overvalued in order to get some kind, any kind of mature talent on the list.

    Their list manager was sacked shortly after, but not before managing to spend the Suns’ earliest 2017 draft pick on a skinny winger no one had really heard of.

    The short version? Gold Coast are a long way away from winning a premiership, and if Tom Lynch would like to win one in his career, he’s got some serious thinking to do about whether or not he’s in the right place to do it.

    The AFL has thrown up enough surprises lately that I’m not going to say Gold Coast can’t win a flag in the next seven or eight years. This game moves fast and I’d say any of the AFL’s eighteen clubs could pinch one in that length of time if the make the right calls and get a few lucky breaks.

    Still, on balance of probability, you’d have to say it’s unlikely. People look at the Suns and say they’re starting from scratch – but the reality is it’s worse than that. It’s one thing to build a new house from the raw materials, quite another to do it when the materials have been left out in the elements to rot for so many years before you start.

    Lynch’s camp has already indicated that whether or not the Suns look like they’re making progress will factor heavily into his decision.

    “Without putting a time frame on it, I’m sure by midway through next year, if they’re 0-11 but they’re competing, that might be OK. But if they’re 0-11 and getting smashed then we’ll wait and see,” said Lynch’s manager in October last year.

    If it’s midway through the year, that bodes especially poorly for the Suns, who due to the Commonwealth Games don’t play a single match at their home ground of Metricon Stadium before the bye.

    If Lynch is looking for an excuse to put his name on the market, I’d suspect he’ll have dozens to pick from by the midway mark of 2018.

    Tom J Lynch

    (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

    The suitors

    So let’s say Tom Lynch does decide he wants to leave the Gold Coast Suns. Where’s he going to end up?

    Victoria seems the most likely result. For starters, he’s a Victorian boy to begin with, so that carries with it obvious appeal.

    Secondly, there just doesn’t seem to be a good fit among the interstate clubs. He’s likely not needed at Adelaide, GWS or West Coast, probably too expensive for the likes of Sydney or Port Adelaide, and maybe a bit older than Brisbane or Fremantle are targetting right now.

    Fremantle would probably be the most likely of the bunch to have a real dig at him, but it’s hard to see what they could do to make their offer more appealing than that of a club in his home state.

    So – Victoria then. And it’s already been reported just recently that Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn are the three clubs most seriously in the mix at this very early stage.

    That’s the clubs who come in at numbers one two and three for most members last year, and they’ve all won at least one premiership in the last eight years. Hooray for equalisation, am I right?

    At Richmond, Lynch would shape as a temporary partner for and eventual successor to Jack Riewoldt – something that’d be very handy, given they’ve lost Tyrone Vickery and Ben Griffiths in the past two years, and otherwise have nothing resembling a mature key forward prospect to take up Riewoldt’s mantle.

    The big question is whether or not they can fit him in. North Melbourne may not have gotten Dustin Martin last year, but they succeeded in making Richmond pay big. Even in these days of a larger salary cap, can a club really afford to have two players on deals of $1 million or more for six-plus years?

    Hawthorn are also in need of a longterm key forward – Jarryd Roughead is in the twilight of his career and Jack Gunston is quality, but he’s not the main man. But the big question for the Hawks is whether or not they’re willing to break the bank for him – it’s a strategy they’ve stayed away from.

    As for Collingwood, well, there arguably isn’t a team in the league more desperately crying out for an A-grade tall player, and if Lynch would like to open up the paper and see his name in it a lot then there’s no better club to go to.

    But are Collingwood really that much closer to succcess than Gold Coast? Yes, definitely, but they’re still a long way behind the eight-ball, and I reckon it’s more than fair to be sceptical that yet another high-profile signing is the way to magically fix that.

    Are there any other Victorian clubs who could take a shot? North Melbourne and St Kilda have money to burn, but a big key forward isn’t necessarily the most logical player type for either to pursue.

    Geelong would do just about anything to get him, but the state of their salary cap is a big question mark. That said, they had enough to make offers to Jake Stringer and Jack Watts last year.

    Carlton could afford him, but he probably doesn’t fit into the team they’re building. Essendon, Melbourne and the Bulldogs have already made enough of an investment in key forwards.

    Of course, there’s one last crucial aspect to all of this that we haven’t touched on yet.

    Tom J Lynch

    (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

    To match or not to match?

    Given Lynch is a restricted free agent this year, Gold Coast will have the right to match a rival bid for him if he decides to leave, and in doing so force a trade with the club he intends to join. As we’ve already talked about, they should almost certainly be able to afford to do this if they want to.

    It’s one thing to pay Lynch $1 millon or more a year, but it’s quite another to consider trading two first-round selections for him, which would likely be Gold Coast’s asking price.

    To pay that price a club is going to need to be 100 per cent sold that Tom Lynch is the answer to all their problems, and while he’s a damned good player, it’s too early to tell if there are going to be any suitors that are quite so smitten.

    However, there’s also a strong possibility that Gold Coast, even if they can afford to, could choose not to match.

    I’m tipping them to finish this year with their second wooden spoon in hand, and if they were to then let Lynch go for a compensation pick, that would mean having the first two picks in a draft that’s we’ve been hearing hype about for months now.

    Of course, more high draft picks aren’t the answer to Gold Coast’s problems – but if Lynch decides he wants out, then it is what they’re going to get, and they may well decide that having the first two picks (or at least two very early picks) is better than whatever they could extract in a trade.

    My tip

    Well, here it is, my very, very, very early prediction: in Round 1 2019, you’ll see Tom Lynch run out onto the MCG in brown and gold representing the Hawthorn Football Club.

    Maybe it’s a cynical kind of fatalism, but I am quite simply of the opinion that if Hawthorn want Tom Lynch, no other club is going to be able to make a more appealing offer.

    And he makes perfect sense for them – they added mature talent to their midfield in 2016 with Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara, a big key forward is the logical next step on the checklist.

    Lynch, after all, is only slightly older than Mitchell and O’Meara, and the Hawks clearly recruited them with the goal of building a future core around that age bracket.

    I was quite surprised this year when the Hawks were so quiet in October. They didn’t have much in the way of draft picks to spend so fair enough, but I was surprised to see them spurn the free agency market.

    That kind of move would make perfect sense though if they had already set guns on going hard at Lynch this year. They’re always thinking two moves ahead and that’s why they just keep landing players.

    Can Hawthorn offer Tom Lynch the success he craves? Look, I’ll admit to being a bit unsure about what the immediate future holds for them in terms of playing finals and contending for premierships.

    Years of trading away draft picks has left them with a dearth of rising young talent on the list and if it were any other club in the land I’d say they were set for at least a few years wandering in the desert.

    They aren’t any other club in the land though – they’re Hawthorn. Contending for premierships is what they do. They’re the most successful team in the modern era by a margin that is distinctly not funny.

    Even if the odds are stacked against them, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see them up at the pointy end of the ladder again before too much more time has passed. I reckon Tom Lynch would feel about the same.

    It’d be fair to point out that the Hawks aren’t the type to make gargantuan offers and well, you’re right – and I’m not sure that policy is about to change.

    But we’ve already established that, if he leaves, Lynch is taking a pay cut – and if he has to take a little bit less than he could get elsewhere to be at a club where he believes he can win a flag, that doesn’t seem like a particularly big hurdle to me.

    The chief concern in my book is whether or not the Hawks would be willing to put draft picks on the line in the event that Gold Coast matches a bid.

    Hawthorn have been happy to deal early picks before and they might be happy to do so again – but if they’re not in great form in 2018, or even if they are, they might feel retaining those picks is a higher priority.

    It’s all speculation for now, of course – we’ll find out somewhere between now and October.

    One last little teaser though. There is a club in the AFL, one that I’ve just quickly glossed over during the course of this article, who I think could set themselves up for nearly a decade of domination by making what would be a very bold, outside-the-box play for Tom Lynch.

    But… more on that another time.

    Josh Elliott
    Josh Elliott

    Josh Elliott may be The Roar's Weekend Editor, but at heart he's just a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29 and listen to him on The Roar's AFL Podcast.

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    The Crowd Says (224)

    • Roar Pro

      February 8th 2018 @ 7:19am
      berrlins said | February 8th 2018 @ 7:19am | ! Report

      Collingwood have one of the best midfields in the competition but their efficiency inside 50 is terrible mainly because they don’t really have a proper forward setup, Tom Lynch would improve that and relieve Darcy Moore of the best defenders or depending on how he goes this year, give him a chance down back. Richmond would also be a perfect fit and more ideal considering the more immediate possibility of success, but my money is on Collongwood.

      • Roar Rookie

        February 8th 2018 @ 10:26am
        Snert Underpant said | February 8th 2018 @ 10:26am | ! Report

        If he wants to chase a flag over money, why the hell would he want to go to Collingwood!

        • February 8th 2018 @ 3:57pm
          Paul said | February 8th 2018 @ 3:57pm | ! Report

          He barracks for them, family all legends members of long standing
          His favourite players the coach
          Good mates with goldy
          Heaps of cap space ( 20 out of contract)
          Wants to play in blockbusters
          Will see how hawthorn go

      • Roar Guru

        February 8th 2018 @ 11:02am
        JamesH said | February 8th 2018 @ 11:02am | ! Report

        The Pies will probably throw the kitchen sink at him, but I reckon he’ll stay a Sun. The money and the leadership opportunities will be attractive, plus I think we’ll see more energy (if not actual wins) from the Suns this season with a new, young coach.

        The question of GC matching an offer is interesting, though. If he declares, for example, that he wants to be a Hawk, the Suns opt to match that offer and the Hawks then decide they can’t afford to trade for him, where does that leave the Suns? They would have an expensive player who doesn’t want to be there but and has nominated a team that won’t make a trade for him. It would be a strange situation.

        • February 9th 2018 @ 12:03am
          AussieBokkie said | February 9th 2018 @ 12:03am | ! Report

          Agree with you James.

        • Editor

          February 9th 2018 @ 11:29am
          Josh Elliott said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:29am | ! Report

          I don’t think anyone will commit to making a serious offer for him unless they’re willing to back it up by spending draft picks – if the Hawks aren’t willing to go that far, they probably won’t make an offer in the first place. The fact they’re reportedly in the market already suggests to me they’re willing to go that far if they need to, even if someone like me thinks it might not be great idea.

          Will be interesting to see if Gold Coast get the new coach bounce. It makes sense on some level but I do think they’re starting from a lot further back than your average club with a new coach. Dew I’m sure is a fine coach, but so are Richardson and Fagan, and they both coached a spoon in their first year.

      • Editor

        February 9th 2018 @ 11:25am
        Josh Elliott said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:25am | ! Report

        I really disagree and have for a while with the assertion that Collingwood have one of the best midfields in the comp. They’ve got plenty of big names and grunt power, but no finesse. I’d rank them as one of the better teams at winning contested ball, but near the bottom of the table when it comes to using it.

        • February 9th 2018 @ 11:32am
          Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:32am | ! Report

          Josh – couldn’t agree more.

          Most people who claim Collingwood have an Elite midfield point to champion data’s assessment – but Champion data just ranked Todd Goldstein as Elite in his position but not Sam Jacobs.

          I would also suggest the game plan Collingwood has been employing allows their midfield to rack up the stats but doesn’t actually hurt the opposition.

          • February 9th 2018 @ 12:08pm
            Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 12:08pm | ! Report

            Now if we are going to call a spade a spade and challenge the idea that The Pies’ midfield is over-rated, let’s not base that on Champion Data.

            Champion Data is one of the great cons. Have you looked at who is rated (or not rated) as elite? The criteria CD uses for its analysis is random and needs to be better informed by football and how it is played, not by maths.

            CD ranks Jack Sinclair as elite. It ranks Shane Edwards as elite. It doesn’t rank Joel Selwood as elite. Why? Its criteria is uninformed by footy.

            • February 9th 2018 @ 1:03pm
              Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 1:03pm | ! Report

              That was exactly my point Don.

              • February 9th 2018 @ 4:06pm
                Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 4:06pm | ! Report

                Why would you say that? Your previous post said that.

                You seem to assume I was disagreeing with you. You are so needy. It’s not all about you.

              • February 9th 2018 @ 4:11pm
                Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 4:11pm | ! Report

                Don – you are the one who always says you only need to say something once, I said Champion Data was rubbish then you merely repeated the same thing.

                I simply thought you should not be a hypocrite.

            • Roar Guru

              February 9th 2018 @ 1:44pm
              Dalgety Carrington said | February 9th 2018 @ 1:44pm | ! Report

              That’s a gross oversimplification. The data (and they have the expertise on data) will tell us something valuable about the game, you just need to know how to read past the splashy headline. The “elite” categorisation that’s been bandied about is on where players sit relative to other players in terms of measurable output over the past (I think) two years.

              • February 9th 2018 @ 1:58pm
                Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 1:58pm | ! Report

                And looking through that list of “elite” players you can see it is a nonsense – Sam Jacobs isn’t elite but Goldstein is for example.

                Champion data keeps fantastic stats but they way they interpret those stats is rubbish and no one knows what algorithm they are using. If they simply released all their raw data and let people make up their own minds it would be far more valuable

              • Roar Guru

                February 9th 2018 @ 4:54pm
                Dalgety Carrington said | February 9th 2018 @ 4:54pm | ! Report

                So you say “it is a nonsense”, but what are you basing it on? Gut feel by the sounds. Why don’t you produce something objective to show that Jacobs performances over the past couple of seasons were better than Goldstein.

                Perhaps CD are nothing but flimflamsters, but I”ve heard the CD guys describe how they go about it and their processes seem to have a logical integrity to them.

              • February 9th 2018 @ 5:07pm
                Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 5:07pm | ! Report

                Seriously – you want something “objective” to demonstrate Jacobs was better than Goldstein – how about Goldstein struggle to hold his spot at North (and was dropped) while Jacobs was close to AA selection?

                In 2017 Goldstein averaged 13.4 disposals, 2.8 marks and 30.3 hit outs from 19 games while Jacobs averaged 14.4, 3.7 and 39.8 from his 25.

                In 2016 Goldstein averaged 13.8 disposals 3.1 marks and 36.5 disposals from his 22 games while Jacobs averaged 14.3, 3.2 and 31.9.

                CD consistently produce player ratings that bear no resemblance to reality – their stats are great, their interpretation is a nonsense.

              • February 9th 2018 @ 5:29pm
                Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 5:29pm | ! Report

                Here is another reason CD is a nonsense

                Sam Menegola (Geelong)

                Ranked elite as a mid-forward. He was the only player listed in that position to rate elite for disposals, metres gained and tackles per game.

                Does anyone really think Menegola is the best mid forward in the league? Or is it more likely that he played a different role to what CD have categorised him as – much more mid than forward?

              • Roar Guru

                February 9th 2018 @ 5:21pm
                TomC said | February 9th 2018 @ 5:21pm | ! Report

                DC, my impression has always been that CD’s output was pretty dubious and that they’re better salesmen than data analysts, but I’m not rusted on to that view and I’m interested in your impressions.

                Is there anything specific that gives you faith in CD’s rankings, or in anything they do as a whole?

              • Roar Guru

                February 9th 2018 @ 5:47pm
                Cat said | February 9th 2018 @ 5:47pm | ! Report

                Re: Menegola – I’d like to how how CD determines whether a player is a mid, a fwd or a mid-fwd. From the outside it doesn’t appear to be based on anything. Having watched the Cats very closely (you are surprised I know) I can confidently tell you Dangerfield last year played a role that was far more mid-fwd than Menegola’s was (Danger registered a whopping 87 shots on goal compared to Sam’s 37 for the year). Fairly sure CD had Danger as a mid though (correct me if I am wrong, CD doesn’t exactly make it easy to find all the data being that most of it is released in dribs and drabs and has to be extracted from articles).

              • Roar Guru

                February 10th 2018 @ 11:58am
                Dalgety Carrington said | February 10th 2018 @ 11:58am | ! Report

                So on those few metrics, Jacobs output is probably rated slightly higher. However, if you broaden it out, Goldstein averaged more than twice as many goals per game than Jacobs over the past two years (maybe weighted highly in the CD calculations?). He also averaged more tackles, clearances, contested possessions and had fewer clangers.

                The nature of putting a 10% cut off could mean that Goldstein snuck in by a hairsbreadth over Jacobs. So he made the top 4 (?) ruckmen statistically there might’ve been only 0.1% between them, which may not be statistically significant, but the cut-off forced the separation.

                The fact that we may be surprised or even dismayed at a number of the names thrown up there isn’t proof that it’s a nonsense (= highly emotional categorisation). In fact, the divergence not only makes it interesting but in part is a key reason why we use stats. Stats operate on a different mechanic than people do and we get to see how a different system sees it, a few steps outside of our own heuristic laden interpretations.

                Our brains will navigate their way through a complex world by creating templates and then filling them in with supporting evidence. Emotions and broad-brushstrokes are always lurking in and around the editing process. We can easily over-exaggerate both the level and duration either good or bad form in our minds in such an emotional, quick-take world that is AFL.

                Stats are more hard-edged, generally more objective, but of course, because of the human element, it is subject to influence by agendas/emotions/preconceived ideas. That can be hard to take in sometimes as it conflicts with our interpretations, what we think “should be” and our emotional mind rebels.

                Calling it “elite” is the main snag here I reckon. It’s a good example of a template that easily becomes hard-wired in the minds of many. The process they’re using is not really saying Menengola is the best fwd/mid in the AFL (highly subjective), it’s saying his output is in the top 10 statistically over the past two seasons (objective), while obviously the selection of metrics to use (the AFL’s are even more tricky given the nature of the game) and the development of/assignment to categories can be more subject to the human element.

                “Elite” is also a sure way of getting people to notice and have them talking, key in getting traffic to your articles.

              • February 10th 2018 @ 1:09pm
                Macca said | February 10th 2018 @ 1:09pm | ! Report

                Dalgety – plain and simple a bloke who got dropped from his side last year is not better than a player who was in the AA squad last year so the weightings being used are a nonsensethe result being generated says that he is.

                On Mengelola, the very fact he was so far in front of other players in his category on disposals and metres gained clearly demonstrates he was put in the wrong category and so comparing him to others in that category is a nonsense.

              • Roar Guru

                February 10th 2018 @ 1:26pm
                Dalgety Carrington said | February 10th 2018 @ 1:26pm | ! Report

                Text book response.

              • February 10th 2018 @ 1:50pm
                Macca said | February 10th 2018 @ 1:50pm | ! Report

                Dalgety – the idea behind The CD concept isn’t to create am alternate reality but to create a methodology that can use statistics to show us reality – if the results the model is getting aren’t reflective of reality the model is a nonsense and needs to be changed.

                If you developed are statistical model to invest in shares and it told you atlas iron was a better investment than BHP you wouldn’t blindly accept it you would change the model, the same thing is happening here.

              • February 10th 2018 @ 1:55pm
                Macca said | February 10th 2018 @ 1:55pm | ! Report

                Dalgety – also Gibbs and Mengelola averaged the same number of goals last year, same goal assists, almost the same inside 50’s – should Gibbs be considered a mid/forward?

              • Roar Guru

                February 10th 2018 @ 2:03pm
                Dalgety Carrington said | February 10th 2018 @ 2:03pm | ! Report

                I know it was a lengthy post, but I’m not sure you’ve read what I wrote properly.

              • February 10th 2018 @ 3:11pm
                Macca said | February 10th 2018 @ 3:11pm | ! Report

                I read what you wrote, but the issue isn’t with the stats it is with their manipulation and interpretation. The conclusions CD draws don’t mesh with reality, not a subjective view but stark reality.

                Jacobs is the better ruckman of the 2 clearly, if a statistical model doesn’t reflect that the model should be reviewed.

                Menegola didn’t play as a mid forward so assessing him a such is pointless.

              • February 10th 2018 @ 3:28pm
                PMacca said | February 10th 2018 @ 3:28pm | ! Report

                The main point is these stats are no longer “hard edged” some human has decided how many points to assign to a kick, a contested possession or a tackle – that makes the stats fuzzy. If that persons opinion isn’t correct the results that come out aren’t accurate.

                Obviously when you see the results CD is throwing up the design of the model is flawed not because of the hard edged stats but the subjective opinion of the designer.

        • Roar Guru

          February 9th 2018 @ 11:58am
          TomC said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:58am | ! Report

          I think the point still stands though – a midfield that’s competent at winning the ball but struggles to use it effectively probably has the most to gain from a powerful key forward.

      • February 11th 2018 @ 10:28am
        Steve009 said | February 11th 2018 @ 10:28am | ! Report

        Collingwood have one of the best midfields at getting, unfortunately they also have one of the worst midfields at using it.

    • February 8th 2018 @ 8:03am
      Harsh Truth Harry said | February 8th 2018 @ 8:03am | ! Report

      Come to the Bombers Lynchy. Lynch and Daniher in the same forward line would be the best combo since Dermie and Dunstall.

      • Roar Guru

        February 8th 2018 @ 9:57pm
        Dalgety Carrington said | February 8th 2018 @ 9:57pm | ! Report

        Not Lloyd and Lucas? Strange statement from the Bombers faithful to reference it to a Hawthorn pairing, of all the clubs.

        • February 8th 2018 @ 10:23pm
          Aransan said | February 8th 2018 @ 10:23pm | ! Report

          DC, I wouldn’t take HTH as being representative of Bomber supporters — we are a long way behind him in going to battle and many of us are running the other way.

          • Roar Guru

            February 9th 2018 @ 1:21am
            Dalgety Carrington said | February 9th 2018 @ 1:21am | ! Report

            No, I understand your blushes Aransan, especially after that comment. Weird goto for any Dons supporter with even the mildest appreciation of the clubs history. Even if they were the first forward pairing that surprisingly came to mind like walking into an unflushed public stall full of twos and ones, surely as you typed their names the fingers would start to burn and tingle, before they seized up altogether.

            • February 9th 2018 @ 10:22am
              Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 10:22am | ! Report

              Dal? What about Daniel Bandy and that forward behemoth, Clive Waterhouse?

        • February 9th 2018 @ 8:39am
          Harsh Truth Harry said | February 9th 2018 @ 8:39am | ! Report

          Lloydy was a great full forward. Scotty was just ok. Come off it blokes we all know Dermie and Dunstall are the best with maybe Brown and Lynch second place. If you follow my comments you will see I am happy to acknowledge great players and solid clubs.

          • February 9th 2018 @ 10:24am
            Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 10:24am | ! Report

            Brown and Bradshaw.

            You slipped up with the Dons boys. Just started following them? Ah well, you’ve gotta start somewhere if you want to know stuff.

            • February 9th 2018 @ 10:31am
              Aransan said | February 9th 2018 @ 10:31am | ! Report

              Ron Evans and Ken Fraser?

              • February 9th 2018 @ 10:36am
                Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 10:36am | ! Report

                Ok…I’ll raise you with Bob Johnson and Fred Lewis.

            • February 9th 2018 @ 11:17am
              Harsh Truth Harry said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:17am | ! Report

              come off it teacher! Brown and Bradshaw aint no Dermie and Dunstall. How can anyone not watch the 1989 GF and be a fan of Dermie? As tough as they come and Piggy Dunstall the last chest marking full forward of the era. As for Bob Johnson and Lewis? What the? You might as well say Dean Martin and Jerry Lewis teacher! No apple for you today!

              • February 9th 2018 @ 12:20pm
                Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 12:20pm | ! Report


                You continue to parody yourself. Didn’t you get a clue with Bandy and Waterhouse?

          • Roar Guru

            February 9th 2018 @ 12:35pm
            Dalgety Carrington said | February 9th 2018 @ 12:35pm | ! Report

            It’s not to say Dunstall/Brereton combination wasn’t a great combination, it’s just noting the jarring fact that you, a stated Bombers fanatic, went past the more recent Essendon combo of Lloyd/Lucas (who is actually higher on the goal kicking tally than Dermie, albeit from more games) for an arch-enemy in Hawthorn’s pair.

            It’d be interesting which pair actually kicked more as a combination.

            • February 9th 2018 @ 1:13pm
              Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 1:13pm | ! Report

              I am no fan of Harry but it isn’t jarring he went past Lloyd and Lucas for Dunstall and Dermie – Lloyd and Lucas aren’t in the same league.

      • Editor

        February 9th 2018 @ 11:30am
        Josh Elliott said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:30am | ! Report

        Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite.

        • February 9th 2018 @ 11:56am
          Harsh Truth Harry said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:56am | ! Report

          Now I know you’re kidding Josh!

          • February 9th 2018 @ 12:23pm
            Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 12:23pm | ! Report

            Geez, you’re struggling, Harry.

            I’ve never known anyone to read in monotone before.

          • Editor

            February 9th 2018 @ 6:10pm
            Josh Elliott said | February 9th 2018 @ 6:10pm | ! Report

            Did you see them tear it up against the Dons at Etihad last year Harry? Surely did! Pure domination.

    • February 8th 2018 @ 8:14am
      mattyb said | February 8th 2018 @ 8:14am | ! Report

      Id be surprised if Lynch leaves GC as the money is going to be enormous,as well as the likely promise of future job prospects inside the AFL.
      If he does leave though I can’t see why he wouldn’t fit in at Carlton like you suggest. Granted they havnt shown a tendency to pay big yet but they have certainly shown a tendency to bring in players of any age from other clubs. I think they’d have a serious dip,they have no forwards at all and they really did reach for their young forward McKay so he’s really a big unknown at this point and has struggled at VFL level so far.

      Collingwood would be the logical choice. Big profile club with money to spare and in need of a key forward.
      I’d agree though that Hawthorn might have a serious look. Under Clarkson in recent times they’ve shown they are not big on development and have certainly shown they are willing to sacrifice draft picks for ready made players if GC do match.

      Worth considering that if GC do go down the total rebuild path and search for draft picks Jack Lukosius will probably be in their sights at this year’s draft. Obviously to soon to tell yet but at this point in time Lukosius would be one of the best junior key forward prospects that we’ve seen in many years.

      • February 8th 2018 @ 10:02am
        Macca said | February 8th 2018 @ 10:02am | ! Report

        McKay has struggled at VFL level? He has played just 17 games over 2 seasons due to injury in the VFL and in 2016 he kicked 7 goals from 6 games in 2017 he kicked 13 from 11 plus 3 from his 2 AFL games. His kicking let him down with him kicking 1.3 on more than one occasion.

        He hasn’t been dominant but given he only turned 20 on Christmas eve and is yet to have a full pre-season (even this year has been interrupted with bones spurs) they are reasonable returns.

        “they have no forwards at all” you do realise Charlie Curnow – the one Carlton recruit you think is decent plays as a key forward?

        • February 8th 2018 @ 11:54am
          Brinnx said | February 8th 2018 @ 11:54am | ! Report

          McKay has shown some good signs so far but is still very raw. Like other big men before him (Hogan, Hawkins and Joey Danniher spring to mind) he could be 2-3 years away from being a regular contributor. What’s he had? Two – three games? Jury will be out until he’s reached the 40-50 game level and he’ll need a solid run at it to get that.

          This is why Lynch has to be on the radar for the Blues, they can’t have all their eggs in the McKay/Kerr basket. Lynch comes in ready to go, takes the pressure off the other developing forwards to come in and impact straight away.
          Whoever gets him will pay top dollar thou, will be a more interesting story coming out of gold coast than the continual stream of Ablett based theories/conspiracies.

          • February 8th 2018 @ 12:27pm
            Macca said | February 8th 2018 @ 12:27pm | ! Report

            Brinnx- I agree Lynch will be on the radar but the blues have a lot of moving parts up forward right now and we just have to wait and see – Collingwood on the other hand would know right now they need him.

            For the blues they have McKay, Kerr and DeKoning to monitor to see who will evolve to partner C Curnow long term – they also have Ben Silvagni as a possible father son next year they need to keep in mind.

            • February 8th 2018 @ 12:52pm
              Don Freo said | February 8th 2018 @ 12:52pm | ! Report

              Could be a good depth player if Liam Jones goes down. Lots of key forwards make the transition back quite effectively.

              • February 9th 2018 @ 11:18am
                Harsh Truth Harry said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:18am | ! Report

                Blimey the teacher has no idea! Play the premier young forward of our game after Joey D down back? Shocking teach!

              • February 9th 2018 @ 12:26pm
                Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 12:26pm | ! Report

                Saying that Lynch would be a good depth back-up to Liam Jones didn’t give you an inkling? Way beyond dim.

                I suspect your lights have gone out.

              • February 9th 2018 @ 2:40pm
                Harsh Truth Harry said | February 9th 2018 @ 2:40pm | ! Report

                You oughtta come fishing with Big Harry Don! I am happy to pass on my business and fishing wisdom with a small fella anytime! Next summer?

              • February 9th 2018 @ 3:43pm
                Don Freo said | February 9th 2018 @ 3:43pm | ! Report

                If what you write on here is a sample of your ‘wisdom’, you will have no takers for any fishing trips. Enjoy your isolation.

        • February 8th 2018 @ 12:11pm
          mattyb said | February 8th 2018 @ 12:11pm | ! Report

          You do realise this article is about Lynch?
          Contribute about him and what he might offer your club.
          Or do you see more prospect in Lukosius?
          Are you keen on Rankine as a midfielder as opposed to Lucosius as a forward at this stage?
          Do you think the blues are a better chance to get a combination of Lynch and Rankine as opposed to Rankine and Lucosius? I’d say the former is far more possible.

          As for Curnow,I think his best prospects are through the midfield rather than forward.. His kicking worries me as a forward.

          • February 8th 2018 @ 2:05pm
            Macca said | February 8th 2018 @ 2:05pm | ! Report

            Hmm so do you want me to talk about Lynch or who the blues will draft next year?

            On McKay, you brought him up, I simply rebutted your we @k reasoning.

            As for Lynch and the blues – if you read my post of 12.27pm above you will see that I believe the blues need to see how the season unfolds and get some more clarity around who we already have and the prospects of Ben Silvagni before we can make a call on pumping millions into Lynch.

            On who we should draft again we need to wait and see, there are a lot of young kids with plenty of development in them and it is premature to decide what we need this early – we also don’t know what picks the blues will have.

            As for Curnow’s kicking, he kicked 20.12 last year – what about that has you concerned? And why would we look to play him through the middle when we have the likes of Cripps, Kennedy and E Curnow playing the big bodied role – we will want to get plenty of speed around them and leave Charlie to play the N Riewoldt role.

            Finally you suggested the blues showed a tendency to get players of any age from other clubs – could you advise how many players from other clubs they have taken since SOS took over who were over 25 at the time? How about how many were over 23?

          • February 8th 2018 @ 4:13pm
            Macca said | February 8th 2018 @ 4:13pm | ! Report

            I don’t think I will worry too much over Charlie’s goal kicking


      • February 8th 2018 @ 4:00pm
        Harsh Truth Harry said | February 8th 2018 @ 4:00pm | ! Report

        But Mattyb Gold Coast are a basket case. He will see out his career there never playing finals? Surely a young star of the game won’t put up with the most dysfunctional football side besides Carlton?

        • February 8th 2018 @ 4:37pm
          mattyb said | February 8th 2018 @ 4:37pm | ! Report

          Macca,I mentioned McKay in reference to Lynch,I didn’t expect someone to snake in lol and talk the wonders of Carlton.
          No wait and see,who would you prefer at this stage in Lynch,Lucosius or Rankine. The websites about predictions not wait and sees.
          Your predictions are always wrong,year after year. Make a prediction now,before MSM or the Leader Newspaper,Lynch,Lucosius or Rankine.
          If you can’t predict don’t reply.

          • February 8th 2018 @ 5:14pm
            Macca said | February 8th 2018 @ 5:14pm | ! Report

            And I responded to you about McKay in reference to Lynch, if your opinion is wrong (as per usual) about McKay it impacts your opinion on whether the blues should take Lynch.

            For someone who apparently doesn’t want me to talk about Carlton, forcing me to talk about Carlton is an odd move but I am happy to Oblige.

            Given where the blues are it is impossible to predict what we will need at the end of the year;

            – IF McKay, Curnow and J Silvagni come out and show they are the real deal at AFL level why would we want Lynch if it is going to blow out our Salary Cap profile.

            – IF Cuningham, Fisher, Kennedy, Dow, SPS, O’Brien and Lang step up to show they will be high calibre midfielders then do we need another mid?

            – IF Ben Silvagni dominates at U18 level this year we will have another key forward at a bargain price.

            – IF Kerr or De Koning come from the clouds and stamp themselves as emerging talent again Lynch becomes less important.

            In short SOS has done such a great job in acquiring great young talent in all departments the blues can have the luxury of taking their time this year, watching how it unfolds and picking for more specific needs than they have in the past.

            FWIW right now I would expect we will take another quick mid with elite skills and trust that the great signs McKay, Curnow and J Silvagni are showing will continue and we already have our key forward posts set – but we will wait and see.

            As for predictions – who did the Lions take number 1 again?

          • February 8th 2018 @ 5:17pm
            Macca said | February 8th 2018 @ 5:17pm | ! Report

            And seeing as we are making demnds on what the other has to do – could you answer my 3 questions from 2.05pm

            As for Curnow’s kicking, he kicked 20.12 last year – what about that has you concerned?
            could you advise how many players from other clubs they have taken since SOS took over who were over 25 at the time?
            How about how many were over 23?

            • February 8th 2018 @ 6:59pm
              mattyb said | February 8th 2018 @ 6:59pm | ! Report

              Lynch,Lukosius or Rankine?
              Or which combination?

              • February 9th 2018 @ 9:09am
                Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 9:09am | ! Report

                So now not only are you refusing to answer my questions you are refusing to read the answers to yours?

                At 5.14 Yesterday I said “FWIW right now I would expect we will take another quick mid with elite skills ” which describes just 1 of your 3 options, I also said ” and trust that the great signs McKay, Curnow and J Silvagni are showing will continue and we already have our key forward posts set” which excludes 2 of the 3 you suggest.

                So if the choice is only those 3 (which it clearly isn’t) why can’t you figure out which one?

                Given we are talking predictions, when you are answering my other 3 questions could you adivse whether you are predicting the blues for the spoon for the third year in a row? And can we expect you to claim yet again the blues underachieved despite exceeding your expectations if they don’t?

          • February 9th 2018 @ 11:19am
            Harsh Truth Harry said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:19am | ! Report

            Lynch to Boltons backward blues could be part of SOS 20 year rebuild plan?

      • February 8th 2018 @ 9:33pm
        Wise Old Elf said | February 8th 2018 @ 9:33pm | ! Report

        Carlton would be the logical choice. Hawthorn and Collingwood would not get him under their caps. They have already blown it on other high priced blow ins.

      • Editor

        February 9th 2018 @ 11:35am
        Josh Elliott said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:35am | ! Report

        It’s actually the issue of prospects beyond a future career that makes me think Lynch is more likely to leave. Yes, he could be passing up as much as five million over the length of his career if he leaves for a new club – but consider who has more opportunities after footy, a 250 gamer at a club with no fans who got to play finals maybe once if at all, or the guy who spent the latter half of his career lighting it up at the MCG, possibly winning a premiership, for a team with 70k members?

        Carlton have recruited players of all ages yes but I think when they’ve recruited older players it has been for the purpose of giving the team some level of experience, stability and mentorship. You’re not spending $1 million plus on a bloke to do that and Lynch I don’t think would be going there for that. They’d be much better of cracking onto someone like Peter Wright who is in the right kind of age range for their next premiership team.

        • February 9th 2018 @ 11:41am
          Macca said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:41am | ! Report

          And the blues have Cap Space right now but you have to wonder for how much longer – they have a number of players who you could see ending up on big money in the near future.

          • Editor

            February 9th 2018 @ 6:11pm
            Josh Elliott said | February 9th 2018 @ 6:11pm | ! Report

            I don’t think that’d be too much of a problem Macca – you’re right that there will be some kids who need to be paid in time, but a longterm heavily frontloaded contract would probably do the trick.

            • February 9th 2018 @ 6:18pm
              Jon boy said | February 9th 2018 @ 6:18pm | ! Report

              I know your not biased,but i reckon you could be on the mark.

        • February 9th 2018 @ 2:11pm
          George said | February 9th 2018 @ 2:11pm | ! Report

          Why would Carlton go after Lynch/Wright? They already have potential superstar Charlie Curnow and watching McKay against Lions last year – he’s a great talent and not very far off. Meanwhile Casboult does a decent job.

    • February 8th 2018 @ 8:18am
      Geoff Schaefer said | February 8th 2018 @ 8:18am | ! Report

      Excellent article Josh! I can’t really argue with any of your assertions. Whilst Clarko is still coach Hawthorn will always be a destination club. In the end, Lynch will have to decide whether he wants to be filthy rich without a flag, or very rich with a chance of getting one. At this point in time, if it’s the latter, Hawthorn seems the obvious choice.

    • Roar Guru

      February 8th 2018 @ 8:57am
      TomC said | February 8th 2018 @ 8:57am | ! Report

      Rather too much logic in this for my liking.

    • February 8th 2018 @ 9:13am
      Aransan said | February 8th 2018 @ 9:13am | ! Report

      Surely no player will be on more than $1.5m a year even with an ambassadorial role.

      • Editor

        February 9th 2018 @ 11:38am
        Josh Elliott said | February 9th 2018 @ 11:38am | ! Report

        Obviously I don’t have their bank account details but I think Ablett, Folau and Hunt were all on that amount or more thanks to their ambassador payments.

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