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Ricky Stuart’s Raiders were one of the hottest prospects in the NRL going into 2017.
Fresh off a season in which they had finished in the top two with a preliminary final loss to Melbourne denying them a grand final berth, 2017 promised so much but delivered so little for the Raiders.
While Canberra looked like they wanted to catch fire on a few occasions throughout the season, close losses crippled their chances. Josh Hodgson, Aidan Sezer and Blake Austin all struggled to take games by the scruff of the neck and get the results for their side.
If there was a moment that summed up the Raiders season, it came out in Bathurst in Round 14. Leading by eight with just two minutes left on the clock, the team would be stunned as the Panthers ran in two quick tries to win the game. It was an unbelievable and inexplicable loss for the Green Machine, with three golden-point losses for the season already.
This and other close losses probably just go to show what kind of season Canberra had. From icing close games and getting results in 2016 to being repeatedly beaten at the death. The demoralising losses and the lack of confidence they generate are big obstacles for a playing group to overcome.
While the Raiders battled hard and stayed in the fight until very late in the season, it would prove too big a mountain to climb after some tough early losses. With an off-season to refresh and refocus, can Ricky give the Raiders the killer instinct they need to get back to September?
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
How does their squad rate?
The Canberra squad is certainly top-eight material. They have a backline that has proven very potent. Joseph Leilua and Jordan Rapana scored 31 tries between them down the left and right sides last season
The Raiders left is hardly a weakness, though. Jarrod Croker combined with rookie Nick Cotric last year for 25 tries. While Jack Wighton isn’t yet among the best of the fullbacks in the game, he is a more than capable custodian for the Green Machine.
The forwards too are littered with some tough firebrands and young prospects. Junior Paulo and Shannon Boyd are two tough, uncompromising props. Joe Tapine has looked a great prospect since joining from the Knights. Elliot Whitehead has been a consistent performer in his two seasons for the club. Josh Papalii and Sia Soliola add some aggression. The Raiders also add Charlie Gubb from the Warriors to their pack for 2018.
The playmaking stocks for the Raiders have been boosted ahead of the season. Sam Williams returns to the club, adding some depth and opening up competition for spots. Aiden Sezer and Blake Austin both had a disappointing 2017, but if Ricky can get a good combination going in the halves, they’ll win more games of footy.
The hooking role is certainly a worry for the Raiders going into 2018. With Josh Hodgson not expected back from a knee injury until Round 18, the Raiders have some big shoes to fill.
Craig Garvey and Siliva Havili have been the names floated around so far. Neither are going to come in and achieve Hodgson’s form, but they have to do a job regardless.
A left-field option – one that Ricky might not even consider – is to move Austin there. He has good pace off the mark, underrated strength, a great running game and a good show and go. It would also get Williams, Sezer and Austin on the field at once.
With a pretty settled squad in terms of recruitment and outgoing players Ricky goes into the season knowing that he will have to be getting more out of some of his personnel if he wants to make the finals.
(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Ins
Brad Abbey (Bulldogs), Charlie Gubb (Warriors 2019), Siliva Havili (Dragons 2018), Sam Williams (Wakefield 2018), Craig Garvey (Bulldogs 2018), Sitiveni Moceidreke (Rabbitohs 2018), Stefano Hala (Panthers 2019)
Outs
Adam Clydsdale (retired), Lachlan Croker (Sea Eagles), Jeff Lima (retired), Kato Ottio (Widnes, deceased), Clay Priest (Bulldogs), Zac Santo (Warriors), Scott Sorensen (Sharks), Dave Taylor (Toronto), Jordan Turner (Huddersfield), Kurt Baptiste (Leigh Centurions).
Injuries and suspensions
The loss of Josh Hodgson is a big one. He isn’t expected back until at least Round 18. Even when he does return he will not be at 100 per cent fit. The Raiders will need a good plan to compensate for his absence.
As big a loss as Hodgson is, the rest of the squad are reportedly fit for Round 1.
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Key Men: Sam Williams and Aidan Sezer
Aidan seemed like the missing piece of the puzzle for the Raiders when he arrived in 2016. As successful as that season was for Canberra, it would be a long bow to draw to say it was down to the halfback. That year it was Hodgson controlling the game from dummy half, much the same as Cameron Smith does, who was really running the show.
Sezer and Austin played every game together last year and were part of some pretty ordinary losses at the death. I am a big fan of Austin and how he plays. He is a strong running five-eighth, and what he lacks in skill he more than makes up for in effort. But he doesn’t really have the controlling tactical game Canberra missed last season.
Sezer has failed to really catch fire, and with Hodgson injured, there is no time like the present. He needs to step up at halfback and take some ownership. The good players in his position know how to close out the tight matches, and we scarcely saw that from Sezer last year. Whether it be a tactical early kick, earning a repeat set or kicking a field goal, this is his job as number seven.
In a clash with the Dragons last season locked at 14-all and in golden point, Sezer nailed a monstrous 40/20. The ensuing set would see the Raiders win the game. It is the example of the play that Sezer must provide on a more regular basis.
Sam Williams comes into it as a key player because of the pressure he puts on Sezer to perform. It is a recruitment move from Stuart that says to the halves that they won’t get 24 games together if they can’t control this team and step up with the clutch plays at the death. Williams is a more than capable player and could take an opportunity with both hands if he is afforded one.
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
Where they need to improve
Holding their nerve and closing out games. The Raiders were third in attack in 2017 but all the way down in tenth for defence. They could get right into games of football and often stay in them with their high-scoring brand of football.
Countless times the Raiders were right in games they could have and should have won. It is not all down to Sezer or Austin to come up with big plays either.
The aforementioned loss against the Panthers was just one example. They were pipped in Round 1 by the Cowboys in golden point. They backed that up in Brisbane weeks later with a one-point loss. They lost not once but twice to Manly in golden point.
It was a case of once bitten, perpetually shy for the Raiders. They could build up matchwinning leads, as they did against the Panthers on two occasions, or they could work their way back into the match with some breathtaking attack. But a penalty, dropped ball, missed tackle or poor end to the set cost them more times than they would like to think about.
The Raiders were all guilty of it at different stages, and it will be a team effort to turn things around. It was a testament to them to be in so many games of football but difficult for their confidence to be denied almost every time.
Their attack needs no improvement – to come top three in that department shows why they’ll again be in the mix this season – but defensively and especially in crucial moments they need to come up with bigger and better efforts.
(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Top five clashes
Round 4: Sea Eagles versus Raiders – Lottloland, 31 March
The two clashes between these sides last year were enthralling and at times spiteful. Dylan Walker sunk the Raiders in Canberra amidst some serious sledging over his earlier shockers. Daly Cherry-Evans would break the Raiders hearts at Lottoland later in the season. Neither side will have forgotten what went down in 2017.
Round 6: Raiders versus Eels – GIO Stadium, 14 April
Two of the most exciting backlines go head to head in the nation’s capital. Parramatta are coming off a top-four season, the Raiders will have top-four aspirations of their own. It should be an entertaining and high scoring evening.
Round 10: Raiders versus Sharks – GIO Stadium, 13 May
The Sharks have had the wood over the Raiders in recent times. Canberra’s biggest loss of 2017 was against the Sharkies early in the season, an early indicator that maybe they weren’t the team that they had been in 2016. They’ll be eager to peg on back over the 2016 premiers.
Round 21: Panthers versus Raiders – Panthers Stadium, 5 August
The Panthers got the Raiders in Bathurst and Canberra last year. Their win at GIO would knock Canberra out of the finals race, returning the favour after the Raiders ended their season in 2016. What will this game mean for two of the competition’s most enigmatic teams late in the season?
Round 23: Raiders versus Roosters – GIO Stadium, 19 August
Will the Raiders be playing the premiers in waiting? At this stage many have the Roosters pegged for premiership glory in 2018. If Canberra are going to be in September, they’ll need to at least be competitive against the Roosters.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
How will they go?
The Raiders are a hard team to judge. You sense that 2017 could very well have been an anomaly. Looking back over their games, you realise just how close they were each and every week. They lost by six or less on eight occasions. They were in more games only for teams to run in last-minute tries to blow out the score.
You can’t discount a team like that for 2018. It is extremely hard to get confidence and composure in a team that loses in such hard circumstances on the run. With a full off-season they can turn it around.
The key is overcoming the loss of Hodgson. He has been immense for them over two seasons, particularly in 2016 when they finished second. I don’t know that Sezer can step up and lead this team.
While they have the likes of Cotric, Rapana, Leilua and Croker this team will be scoring plenty of points. But that only did so much last year.
There are also some questions over depth. Canberra have had a fairly good run with injury over the last season or two, but if that changes, do they have the personnel?
All in all it is assured that Canberra will be in the logjam until deep in the season. They have too many points in them to not win games. They are a team that, when they put it together, are among the most exciting to watch in the competition.
They will need the likes of Jarrod Croker to stand up and lead this team. This is very much the team Ricky wants, and if he can’t get this side to the finals for the second year running, questions should be asked. The Raiders will bounce back and charge into September as a dark horse.
Predicted finish: sixth
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