Mark the date in your rugby diary – November 10, 2018. That is the day England take on the All Blacks, in what will be the first match between the two nations for four years and six days.
It is an unusual period of drought in the international rugby calendar, and it is the one remaining shadow looming over England after the disaster of the 2015 World Cup.
England know they are good, because they have won two consecutive Six Nations Championships and 24 of their 25 games under Eddie Jones. That compares favourably even with New Zealand’s own outstanding record of 24 wins, two defeats and own draw since the last World Cup.
But despite the similarity on paper, England cannot truly be certain of the level they have reached until they play the World Champions. Games against New Zealand tend to open the road to self-assessment in a much more immediate and ruthless way than matches against other nations – especially given the (hopefully temporary) recent decline of the Wallabies and Springboks.
England under Stuart Lancaster enjoyed a positive glut of games against the All Blacks by way of contrast – six in the space of two years – including a tour of the Shaky Isles in June 2014. That tour remains the most competitive and enjoyable mid-year series in New Zealand in recent times, despite the administrative catastrophe which meant England were without 14 of their leading players for the first Test at Eden Park.
Games against New Zealand have a way of shining a light on the particular strengths and weakness of your players and systems in ultra high definition. All are shown up in black and white.
The Carisbrook ‘House of Pain’ may be no more, but that was no comfort to Luther Burrell, after his first experience of New Zealand-style speed and intensity on the part-synthetic grass, and under the covered glass dome at Forsyth Barr stadium. Back in 2014, the ghosts of Carisbrook were alive and well, and Luther still felt the traumatic suffering of his forebears in the changing sheds after the game.
One aspect which was spotlighted after the 2014 tour was England’s kicking game. The rate of return on high kicks to contest the ball in the series was poor, and it cost us two tries directly on New Zealand returns of Danny Care box-kicks in that crucial second Test in Dunedin (see the 48th and 63rd minutes):
Since then, great emphasis has been placed by first Lancaster and latterly Jones on the quality of the kick and chase. England began to pick their three best kickers at 9, 10 and 12 in the shape of Ben Youngs (or an improved Care), George Ford and Owen Farrell, and the threat of their kick chasers in the air, or in pursuit across the top of the ground – Johnny May, Anthony Watson, Jack Nowell and Elliot Daly – came on in leaps and bounds.
It is the quality of England’s kicking game which really makes them tick, and without it their attacking play seldom scales great heights.
It was the kicking game which got them over the line against the challenge of Australia back in November last year, a game which I examined in this article.
The alertness of Youngs’ kicking through for Daly created England’s first try, and the precision of Care kicking through for Jonathan Joseph, and then Johnny May, finally finished the Wallabies off in the last ten minutes of the match.
Likewise, England’s kicking game, in similarly wet conditions, did for Wales on Saturday. Just as England targeted Bernard Foley in the backfield last November, so they went to work on inexperienced Rhys Patchell in the Welsh secondary over the weekend.
Patchell was pinpointed right from the opening whistle. Care exited with a box-kick down the right sideline from his own 22 in only the second minute of the match and Anthony Watson beat Patchell to the ball in the air. When the ball reached Farrell after the turnover, he had only one thing on his mind:
May has kept his width on the left and is signalling for the ball. A beautifully top-spun kick along the deck is the quickest and easiest way to get the ball to him, and that is the option Farrell chooses:
This is prototypical in the Jones era – when you have as much speed on the edge of the field as England possess, you create opportunities to use that speed as directly as possible.
Patchell continued to be given a rough time over on the left side of the Welsh secondary, losing control of the ball under pressure:
The overall effect was to erode the self-belief of a young player who had enjoyed his first Six Nations start in the fabled Welsh #10 jersey in Cardiff the previous weekend. As a result, he began to over-compensate on the return opportunities he was given:
The aerial torture for poor Patchell continued until he was finally substituted off the field in the 55th minute.
England, meanwhile, went on looking for ways to get the ball into the hands of their outside speed as quickly as possible, particularly to May’s side. The tendency of modern defences is to condense around the ball when numbers are relatively short, for example on turnovers of possession, at scrums:
Or after a long break – engineered needless to say by the kicking game! Ford first chips over the heads for Farrell to collect from first phase lineout:
Then immediately hooks a kick back across his shoulder for May wide on the left as the defence narrows by default:
When Warren Gatland replaced Patchell with George North for the final quarter, with Aucklander Gareth Anscombe moving into the #10 role and Josh Adams shifting to fullback, the complexion of the game changed dramatically.
Anscombe’s confidence hadn’t been eroded by a heavy high-ball attack, and he immediately showed why England had tended to kick away from his side:
The Welsh attack suddenly showed signs of life with Anscombe’s willingness to attack the line from first receiver:
More especially, Anscombe demonstrated typical New Zealand facility and fearlessness in running the ball back as the last man on kick returns. In the 61st minute of the game (see the highlight reel), he ran a long England kick back from his own 22 to find the English ‘triangle’ on chase fatally over-extended:
The space between the tip of the triangle (Farrell) and its base point on the right (Joe Launchbury) has grown too big and Launchbury can no longer cover the gap after Anscombe beats the first man.
Anscombe was able to set up a near-certain try-scoring opportunity on the left for Scott Williams, one which was only saved by an incredible cover tackle by England flanker Sam Underhill.
But the abiding question remains: how would Ben Smith, Beauden Barrett or Damian McKenzie fare against this kick-chase game? Would they do better than Anscombe? Would they be able to handle the likes of Watson, May and Daly in the air, match their speed across the ground and counter effectively against the chase?
Against New Zealand, England will be pitched against the best backfield in world rugby. It promises to be a titanic contest – if one which, at present, slightly favours the reignging World Champions.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Who knows Fin? From what I understand Gibbes is quite happy at Ulster :)
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, Here's another All Black 'plant'. Not just Thorn. Ulster head coach Jono Gibbes has distanced himself from reports suggesting that he is going to take the role of set-piece coach with the Wallabies. Gibbes only joined for the start of the 2017/18 campaign and is currently acting boss at the Irish province following the recent departure of director of rugby Les Kiss. It is claimed that the former All Black is competing with Laurie Fisher and Nick Stiles for the position in Michael Cheika’s backroom staff, but the 41-year-old has rubbished the rumour. "Personally, knowing Michael, he's either trying to sniff out something in his own organisation to see who's leaking things, or he's putting out a complete smokescreen or something," he said. "I can only speak for myself, that's not for me to dismiss Laurie or Nick but that's what I assume. It's fake news."
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, This article from a few years ago may give an insight into Brad Thorn's guiding principles when it comes to coaching a rugby team. https://amp.couriermail.com.au/sport/rugby/brad-thorn-warns-wallabies-must-sort-out-offfield-issues-to-have-success-on-field/news-story/0d0e00b2ce041a8a9ba9d51b82de3dab
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
This one arm of Australian rugby struggling with the other Fin (club not putting the national interest first). Interesting that it should come from Thorn though - beginning to think he's an All Black 'plant'!
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
For anyone deluding themselves that the English media think a win over the All Blacks is a done deal, here's Brian Moore writing today: "England head a group of four, possibly five, countries that are a step below New Zealand. There is little to choose between England, Ireland, Wales, Australia and possibly South Africa, if they get their selection rules in order, when it comes to one-off fixtures." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2018/02/19/eddie-jones-england-could-become-truly-great-side-address-number/
Fin
Guest
Hi Nick, The latest on Hunt. Thorn doesn't want him. BT is putting his new Reds culture rebuild above everything it seems. At this point Hunt's future is most likely overseas unless Cheika can find another super rugby team for him.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Carwyn Tuipolutu?? Another product of the great Tongan community in East Wales! Just like the Vunipolas, sons of an ex-Pontypool hooker no less :)
ClarkeG
Guest
Sweden. [even in NZ?] - what I was querying here is the need to qualify your statement with this. Are the so called rugby experts in NZ somehow different to those from the rest of the rugby world. I just felt it was odd that you felt the need to add that but having said that I guess I could have made my query clearer. Was I suggesting Farrell is not rated in NZ?...nooooo. I wrote "One of the best players in the world? Well that has been put to the test and is proven"...you glossed over that perhaps? The only certainty here is that Farrell will never walk into the ABs in any position. To say he would is mere speculation.The trouble we, and those experts you speak of, have is that we don't get to select the team. Would say Aaron Smith - who many an expert rate as the best in his position - turn up at the Eng camp today and start against Scotland this coming match...I doubt it. We would need to talk to coach Jones about that I guess. Would Jones exclude Mike Brown from the Eng team on the basis of widespread opinion that he shouldn't be in the team...I doubt it. You talk of SBWs "brain f...s" as some justification of your claim. Well I have to say,in case you haven't noticed, the present AB selectors have to date seemed somewhat tolerant of these. And I doubt the rugby worlds leading coaches base their selections on player rankings. By the way what are the "official" player rankings?
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
First question my wife asked me when I got back home from lunch with my Dad Tman! But sadly noticed nothing out of the ordinary at all, despite being close to the epicentre. But everyone was still out in the middle of the strett when I got back, as they were at the last solar eclipse.
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
Before the three tour wins in 2016, England had a better away record against the Springboks than the Wallabies, It took us until 2002 to get a win in Australia but we already had three in South Africa by then, and probably should have had more. South Africa have been a strange opponent for England, They went nine consecutive wins against us, straight after we had gone seven consecutive wins over them. You don't usually see that between a pair of top tier teams. In short, although South Africa has been the hardest team for us to beat for more than a decade, England supporters probably feel we should beat them more often than we beat Australia and New Zealand. I'd be surprised if we don't get one win there; pleasantly surprised, but not astounded, with a series win. If we somehow manage to win the first two Tests, then I think we'll win the third.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
This prospect looks special NB, you know anything about him? https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/introducing-carwyn-tuipulotu-16-year-14298101 This gotta be the ultimate nightmare for some, not only is the talent from SH going north, they make kids up there, who are eligible for their national teams also ;) Carwyn Tuipulotu. That is a proper rugby name!
Taylorman
Guest
Winning the tens was fun, but nothing to hang anything on. We’ve a tough start with key injuries to our 10’s and Gibson at 7. Strong outside backs again but up fronts a bit shy. For me it’s about the culture, how much they’ve bought into the Blues, how deep they’re prepared to dig this year to turn the close ones to wins, to finish the job after they’ve won. That’s whats been lacking. Loads of talent, less heart. The Crusaders example is the model. Complete buy in, trust throughout the wider squad and franchise, fans.
Taylorman
Guest
Did you get that earthquake Nick? Wales wasn’t it? Geez your first of it’s kind for a hundred years? 5.6. Gosh, that’s rare. We just had a 5.4 tonight down the road? Didn’t feel it though, others did.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Everyone's faster than Barrett - Scott Barrett that is :D
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Damn, you and I agree and way too much since that Lions series last summer been done and dusted. And to make things even "worse", I have this feeling for the Blues this season also. It is gonna be weird chatting with you if the Blues finds some grove, and fending off angry south island boys who cry foul play, bad luck et al ;) Contemplating to put some money on the Blues, not as outright winners, but reaching the semis could happen if everything clicks. The Blues will not hurt too much from AB's camps either, hence there is not that many going... yet.
Taylorman
Guest
True, but neither is England as good as either of the two sides that beat them either. Both sides had numerous greats of the game, the Lions team one of the best ever. SA are poor, but at home grow an extra couple of feet taller.
Taylorman
Guest
On losing this year I’d expect the usual, one test. Two would be barely acceptable, three a disaster.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Both the series in SA and the Wallys-Ireland series should be great to watch. The odd Test here and there does not really give any answers, but two proper Test series should give us some real answers I believe. That Jones is under no illusion about what awaits England on the veldt, is probably good news for England. There will be no "holiday-trip" as it was back in the days when NH toured the south. But if England does win the series, I would not put it down next the AB's 96 and BIL's 74, there is no way the Boks are as strong now as they were back then.
Taylorman
Guest
Well if England manage a baptism of fire in South Africa that’ll be the first time they’ve done that. They haven’t won there in six or so tests. Only the 96 ABs and 74 Lions have ever done that. I expect the Boks to win the high Veldt test and be competitive in the series. It ain’t easy winning a series in SA. Last year the ABs beat SA by a record 57-0 in NZ then all but lost the return match a couple of weeks later. The Cheetahs are even winning most of the club matches at home versus the NH sides. Jones will be under no illusion how difficult it will be in SA.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
It will be just as interesting to see the Boks - after a baptism of fire against England - take on the AB's. Never ever forget that there is nothing a Saffa loves more than beating the AB's... Eddie is playing with fire when he lashes out against Fleet Street too much, only his win ratio saves him right now. But the players love him for taking all the heat, so they will put in the extra yards. And don't lose focus on your own boys. First up you will have meaningless series against France that will not help you in any way to prepare for the rest of the year. Then both the Boks and the Wallys is gonna come for you with all they got (they both think they have unfinished business with your lot). End of the year tour with extra Tests in Japan, England and Ireland within seven days, and maybe an extra Test against Ireland to finish the year. Shag has a lot of credit in the bank, but I wonder how many losses it would take for the Kiwi media and Kiwi-Roarers to bring out the knives?