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Super Rugby has begun: Bold February predictions

19th February, 2018
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The superstar talents of Folau and Beale went along way to get the Waratahs a win (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Expert
19th February, 2018
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It’s a rare event that you get to do a token season preview piece after a season has begun, and this was an opportunity I wasn’t going to miss.

Obviously, this has come about because the Super Rugby season has started a week early in South Africa; not at all because I’ve done this a week late. Nope, not my fault, I swear.

But there is a definite advantage to the timing of this, I’ll admit, because it means that I’ve finally got a look at some South African teams in 2018. With the obvious benefit of hindsight, I must say that what I saw over the opening two games of the Super Rugby season has really just confirmed my suspicions.

Already, it appears that speed is element that all teams are striving for in 2018. Teams that didn’t really play with it in 2017 have been tinkering to bring it into their game this year, and those that did have been refining it even further. Undoubtedly it means some teams will be left behind within the three conferences.

And I also think it will really compress the gap between those mid-table teams. That’s going to make February predictions even harder again, but nevertheless, here’s how I see the conferences playing out in 2018.

South Africa
Finishing order: Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Sharks, Bulls.

I always suspected the Stormers and Lions would be the strongest teams in South Africa this season, and having now seen both teams in action, I’ve only underlined that suspicion further.

The Lions have lost a few players here and there – it still astounds me that they allowed Faf de Klerk to leave and kept Ross Cronje in his, but maybe that’s me – but the crux of their ide that reached the final last year is still there, and there’s a determination about the way they’re playing.

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The Stormers are playing a game in which everything they do in the middle channel is to set up for when they go wide, and whereby as soon as they get into the tramlines, they accelerate the exploit what any space may be there. Their speed men are out wide, and that’s where they’ll do the damage. Their trans-Tasman tour starting this weekend can set up their season.

Of the other three, I’m entirely unenthused about the Bulls, the Sharks still look too inconsistent to me to be considered a side that can press for the finals, and I think same applies to the Jaguares, but with one major caveat.

Already, the Mario Ledesma influence on the Jaguares’ scrum is coming through, and they certainly caused problems for the Stormers at Newlands on the weekend. But – and it’s as big a ‘but’ as they come – they must improve their discipline.

Facundo Isa Jaguares Super Rugby 2016

(AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

New Zealand
Finishing order: Hurricanes, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs, Highlanders.

The Hurricanes and Crusaders look obvious top picks here, and I even think that whichever of the two doesn’t top the conference will finish as the top wildcard anyway. Even having just written that, I’m starting to have second thoughts about putting the ‘Canes first.

But I needn’t. I still think 2018 will feel like the one that got away for the Hurricanes, and the off-season news that Chris Boyd has seen that the light at the end of his coaching tunnel doesn’t include a silver fern along the way, and will head to England instead gives the 2016 Champions a huge incentive to add another title to his record.

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Of course, though, the 2017 Champions can never be discounted, and I don’t think anyone with any sense would. I know you can’t read anything to much into the Brisbane Tens, but the talent on display two weeks ago, and knowing that plenty of them won’t see Super Rugby game time this year, just underlines what a crazy-good squad the Crusaders have.

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The only issue in predictions like these is that you have to put the teams in some kind of order, and in all honesty, I don’t think there’s much between the Blues, Chiefs and Highlanders at all this year. The Highlanders are a bit of an unknown with a new coach in place, and players moving on. He never got many headlines, but I reckon they miss Marty Banks incredibly, for instance. Someone has to be ranked fifth, and I just think it’s them at the moment.

And that just leaves the Blues and Chiefs, which I could honestly a flip a coin between. How Damien McKenzie will go at 10 is the $64 question. The Blues similarly have issues at 10, with third choice Bryn Gatland likely to start there this weekend, but I’ve just got a funny the Blues are going to run very close this year.

I just think there’s something about a side with Sonny Bill Williams, a couple of Ioanes, George Moala and Melani Nanai there.

Sonny Bill Williams of the Blues makes a break during the round 14 Super Rugby match between the Blues and the Chiefs and Eden Park on May 26, 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand.

(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

Australia
Finishing order: Waratahs, Brumbies, Rebels, Reds, Sunwolves.

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A week ago, I wasn’t thinking about the Waratahs topping the Australian conference, but a combination of the Brumbies and Rebels both stuttering through their trial games, and the ‘Tahs looking pretty slick in their outing last week pushes them ahead, I think.

And frankly, they should be topping the conference with the squad they have. The return of Kurtley Beale and the recruitment of locks Rob Simmons and Tom Staniforth, and outside backs Curtis Rona and Alex Newsome will go a long way toward plugging the abundant gaps in their game last season. A team with that many players with international experience should be standing out at this level, and the Waratahs should embrace the pressure.

The Brumbies are still well-placed, but the trials have highlighted that they’re still working on a few combinations. A Rob Valetini-Tom Cusack-Isi Naisarani backrow feels so obvious to me, yet I’m not completely confident that’s what will run out in Tokyo this Saturday. I could flip a coin for the no.10 jersey.

The Brumbies aren’t far off, but I don’t think they’re quite the assumed conference-toppers they were thought to be just yet.

And nor are the Rebels. With so much change in an organisation in so little time, it’s not entirely surprising that things haven’t quite clicked on the field as well as the training track. I thought they would be a big shot of topping the conference with the talent available, but I have wound that back a bit now they’ve played a few games – and I know you shouldn’t over react to trial results, but two 50-point losses are hard to ignore.

Amanaki Mafi of the Rebels

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

I hope the Reds and Sunwolves both prove me wrong in placing them down the list, but it’s more a case of the unknown that drives it. We just don’t know how the Reds’ ‘all-in’ approach to backing youth will play out when it most matters, and it’s just hard to know anything about the Sunwolves, full stop.

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On paper, they certainly appear to have added some forward bulk, but the proof can only come when they run onto the field. The mighty Moondogs cannot afford another season battling in Super Rugby, and though I fear they might, I hope they don’t.

Wildcards
The biggest change around Super Rugby is obviously the move back to three conferences, with which comes yet another Finals format. Fortunately, even the casual followers will be able to follow it this season, with the conference leaders occupying the top three spots and earning a home quarter-final, and then the next best five teams following in behind irrespective of where they’re from.

The best of those five wildcard sides will claim the fourth and final home quarter-final. But who will they be?

Well, I’ve already pencilled in the Crusaders as one, and the Lions and Brumbies will take two more. They seem reasonably obvious at this still-judging-off-named-squads stage. The last two spots are a little harder to pick.

And that’s because I think the Jaguares, Blues, Rebels and probably the Chiefs will be fighting out for them and separating close teams becomes a gut-feel thing.

I could make cases for all of them, but in the end, I just think the Jaguares and Rebels have too much to play for, and too much motivating pressure to not qualify this season. Both sides – as do the Blues and Chiefs, obviously – have too much talent to languish mid-table, and so I’m expecting 2018 to be their year.

Wildcards (4th to eighth): Crusaders, Lions, Brumbies, Jaguares, Rebels.

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