After yet another week when racing has been dragged through the mud, it’s nice to have some quality racing to focus on.
The cards at Caulfield and Rosehill haven’t let us down. Yes, racing is full of nefarious types, but that’s a given, it will never change, and we punt on anyway.
Blue Diamond Stakes
Another Blue Diamond is upon us, and rarely have we had such an open betting race in this prestigious Group 1 event for two-year-olds.
The Hayes camp is well represented as always, including the favourite Long Leaf. The unbeaten colt hasn’t been seen for a month, when he took out the Preview for colts and geldings. He had everything laid out for him that day, but he won like a professional.
Ollivander and Run Naan filled the trifecta behind Long Leaf that day, and have since run in the Prelude without figuring. Run Naan keeps running on without threatening. Ollivander was superb first-up and then a big flop last time out – he’s had a couple of gear changes and is well over the odds if you want to forgive last start.
Written By won the Prelude for colts and geldings, but also had the most favours of any horse in the race. Still, often the horses that win are keep getting underrated. Plague Stone ran a tough second, beaten half a length after Kerrin McEvoy somehow conspiring to be four wide from barrier four. It’s easy to see why punters have warmed to him over the winner.
Two colts engaged from outside the Preview/Prelude series are Prairie Fire and Encryption.
Prairie Fire won the Talindert, showing the turn of foot that we expect to see from our Blue Diamond winners. He looks the goods. Prior to that win, he was third in the Chairman’s Stakes, where Encryption ran second in a typically honest Godolphin display.
The winner of the Chairman’s Stakes was a filly called Ennis Hill, who led them along and simply sped away. She’s quick, but can she last 1200m? Ollivander was too good for her back when they met in December, further strengthening his claims as best roughie.
Enbihaar won the Prelude for fillies up on the pace, another Hayes two-year-old that just does the right things. Oohood is the only one you could be on from the race though, the biggest eye-catcher from any of the juvenile lead-up races.
Kinky Boom won very well on debut in a race restricted to Inglis horses, and appears to be another player in an incredibly even race.
Selections: 1.Oohood 2.Prairie Fire 3.Long Leaf 4.Ollivander
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Futurity Stakes
The Futurity Stakes is one of the key support races to the Blue Diamond, and may prove to be a difficult one to work out.
Six of the runners, including most of the key chances, come out of the messy Orr Stakes where the leader missed the start, a blanket covered the field, and hard luck stories were the order of the day.
Weir stablemates Brave Smash and Tosen Stardom head the market, neither particularly easy to catch. Brave Smash was awful first-up but sensational in the Orr. Tosen Stardom was a forget run in the Orr, but it’s hard to say 1400m at Caulfield is his best chance at winning races.
Humidor is another Weir runner, first-up from a Melbourne Cup where he was never going to stay the trip. His Cox Plate second to Winx lingers in the mind, but first-up isn’t his go.
Mighty Boss was in the ruck in the Orr, and could have won. He’s looking to prove that his Guineas win at 100-1 wasn’t a fluke, and should get his chance here. Mr Sneaky was one that probably had his chance but just wasn’t quite good enough at WFA.
Shillelagh had admirers in the Orr, with Chris Waller quite bullish about her chances, but she was never a hope from last in muddling race. Her second-up run at this track and distance from the spring can win this. Lord of the Sky presents as a live chance in a race of minimal speed, if he can jump cleanly, but still have to properly prove his 1400m credentials.
Showtime is the interesting runner, and is one-all in his battles with Mighty Boss. He resumed up in Sydney and suggested he’s going to become a very handy horse. He beat Global Glamour home there, who beat Shillelagh at the Caulfield 1400m in the spring. He’s a huge threat, and might be the best pick in a race where every runner has a query over them.
Selections: 1.Showtime 2.Lord of the Sky 3.Brave Smash 4.Shillelagh
Oakleigh Plate
It wouldn’t be Blue Diamond Stakes day without a capacity field Oakleigh Plate, but unlike previous editions this one may not be particularly deep, despite some high quality thoroughbreds at the top end.
The excitement lies with a few three-year-old fillies at the bottom of the weights, in a season where there is a lot of class among that group.
She Will Reign is already a Group 1 winner against older horses, when she won the Moir Stakes first-up at WFA at Moonee Valley in the spring. She’s not as advantaged in a handicap, and Ben Melham has a decision to make from a wide gate – forward or back? She’s won in each circumstance.
(AAP Image/David Moir)
Catchy won the Blue Diamond on this day last year, but has to answer what kind of horse she’s going to become. Is she a sprinter, is she a miler? She had a heavy spring workload taking on the boys in the Caulfield Guineas and then dropping back in distance to the Coolmore Stakes.
Booker is a high quality sprinting filly, with spring form around Merchant Navy, Catchy and Shoals. She won with ease first-up, untroubled from the front. She will go forward again from a wide gate, but an Oakleigh Plate is a different story.
Of the older horses, Russian Revolution is the horse to beat. He’s an outstanding fresh horse, and has a record of 5: 5-0-0 when first-up or off a break of seven weeks or more. He’s also unbeaten at 1100m, and isn’t badly in at the weights despite the number two saddlecloth.
Snitty Kitty is a Caulfield specialist with plenty of talent, but is another on-pace runner drawn wide, so it might be tough for those horses making their way across if they cut at each other up front. Bons Away is a progressive and adaptable four year old that could have a nice win in him.
A few old hands are also fronting up. Sheidel looked finished in the spring, so let’s see what she produces now. Flamberge is a mighty warrior and previous Oakleigh Plate winner, but this is an ask. Illustrious Lad is a bit fluky, but can run a drum on his day.
Hellbent will always have backers, but hasn’t won since the days of TVN. Was he really there to win first-up in the Rubiton? It didn’t look like it, and one suspects Weir has him primed for a big one here. Big field, hot speed and middle draw is in his favour.
Furhryk has a chance but doesn’t always turn up. Glenall has been the street-corner tip at a big price, and with reasons. He’s raced almost exclusively on wet tracks, and ran fourth in the Galaxy last year (behind Russian Revolution) at only his fourth start. Very much a watch runner.
Selections: 1.Hellbent 2.Russian Revolution 3.She Will Reign 4.Catchy
There are plenty of other nice races across Melbourne and Sydney.
Cismonte looks a handy each-way play in the first at Caulfield. Waterhouse and Baster were lethal together in the spring. Silent Sedition might well be finished, and Flippant appeals in the Mannerism if that’s the case. The Peter Young Stakes finishes the day, with Hartnell, Gailo Chop, Single Gaze and Abbey Marie all strong chances.
At Rosehill, the Hobartville is the feature, and it’s doubtful you’ll go broke backing Kementari this prep. That said, Trapeze Artist should be closer to him in the odds.
The Golden Slipper favourite, Sunlight, has her first run in Sydney in the Silver Slipper. The seven horse field only has one loss between them. Estijaab might be the one to back for the big dance before they take to the course.
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