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This time last year, I really liked the look of Essendon and it led me to predict – accurately, as it turned out – that the club would play finals in season 2017.
That’s not super relevant to this article. I just like to mention it whenever I get a chance.
The reasoning was simple – the Bombers had a great list. They boasted a strong contingent of young talent, combined with a number of mature, ready-to-win guns who could lead the team. It is a recipe for success.
Some of that mature talent has moved on now, Jobe Watson being the biggest name, but the Dons also said goodbye to the likes of James Kelly, Brent Stanton and Heath Hocking at the end of last year, and cut players like Ben Howlett and Craig Bird.
That might not seem like a whole lot just looking at the names, and fair enough, as only Watson and Kelly have ever been particularly well-known AFL players, but collectively it represents just under 1200 games of AFL experience out the door, and leaves Brendon Goddard and Mark Baguley as the only two players over 30 on Essendon’s list.
The Dons did not stand idly by in trade period however and instead approached October in perhaps the most aggressive way they have as a club in decades.
Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad all bring attributes to the club that can help them improve in 2018 – primarily speed, and in the case of Stringer and Smith, the ability to hit the scoreboard. That will maximise the strengths of a list that already had some pace and one of the better forward lines in the league.
However, an argument could fairly be made that the Bombers didn’t manage to bring in the type of player that they arguably need a most: a big, dominant inside midfielder who can be the bedrock of their centre-bounce team.
They need an axle on which the wheel can turn.
They need a lynchpin.
They need Rory Sloane.
When rumour first went around in October last year that Sloane might be gettable for a Victorian club as a free agent at the end of 2018, I figured that despite their regular struggles to retain talented players, Adelaide probably shouldn’t worry too much.
Sloane is currently 27 years old, but by Round 1 2019, when he would be playing his first game for his hypothetical new club, he will have turned 29 – a young 29, but 29, and perhaps only with a few very good years left in his career.
That means any club looking to sign Sloane must surely be in win-now mode, and honestly, how many Victorian teams are there who fit the bill?
You can cross off Collingwood, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs – Sloane just doesn’t fit into the age profile that these clubs are trying to build.
Richmond and Geelong would both love a Rory Sloane in the side, but it doesn’t seem likely. The Cats probably don’t have room from a salary cap point of view, and the Tigers only have eyes for Tom Lynch.
Melbourne, perhaps, could be a realistic option, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Snatching Jake Lever last year was their list-completing play, they’ve got players in Sloane’s mould already, and will probably sit tight and not risk overloading their salary cap.
That leaves Essendon. If Sloane wants to come home to Victoria, but wants to be at a team that can push for a flag before he finishes up, the Bombers make a lot of sense.
I’m a big believer that you need to have at least one absolute A-grade midfielder to be a serious threat for the premiership, and probably the one criticism you could make of Essendon’s best 22 at present is that they lack one.
It’s not impossible that a player to fill this gap could come from the Bombers’ list. Dyson Heppell has been close to that mark a few times, and players like Andy McGrath and Zach Merrett are serious young talents. Jayden Laverde and Kyle Langford are more unknown than I’d like them to be at this stage, and could reveal themselves as surprise packets.
There has even been talk of Jake Stringer playing more of a midfield role than he did at the Bulldogs, with comparisons being made in his play style to Jobe Watson. However, this is pretty common pre-season talk, and not the kind of basket I’d want to put many eggs in.
The Dons could play the patient game and wait for Merrett or McGrath to become this week-in-week-out-dominant-hybrid-ball-winner-slash-game-breaker. They could cross their fingers and hope that Heppell plays career-best footy over the next two or three years.
Or, they could be proactive and go on the hunt.
There are a few good midfielders on the 2018 free agency list. Andrew Gaff. Marc Murphy. Luke Dahlhaus. Maybe Tom Liberatore?
But when you weigh up the players Essendon already has, and what they need the most, Sloane – who averaged six clearances, seven tackles and 13 contested possessions per game last year – makes sense. He can be vulnerable to a hard tag, but that’s really the only knock on him.
It’s worth noting here also that Sloane already has a connection with John Worsfold as he played a big role in coaching Adelaide in the latter half of 2015, following the tragic death of Phil Walsh.
The one potential stumbling block for the Bombers is the fact that, despite 2018 being his tenth season in the AFL, Sloane is set to become a restricted free agent when the list is formally announced in March.
There is an obscure rule which essentially states that if a player is one of the higher earners at his club and has not previously been a restricted free agent, then they must be a restricted free agent at least once before being eligible for unrestricted free agency.
Since Sloane last signed a contract in 2015, a year before he was eligible for free agency, he will likely be considered a restricted free agent only in 2018, therefore giving Adelaide the right to match any bid he is willing to accept.
While no club in the history of free agency has formally matched a bid for a restricted free agent yet, the Crows have come the closest – they made it clear to Geelong in 2015 that they would match any bid for Patrick Dangerfield, and the two clubs simply went to the trade table rather than going through that formal process.
If they felt it was the best move they could make, they’d do it again.
If Essendon have to risk needing to pay a draft pick for Sloane, they should still be willing to – their list is almost overbalanced in terms of young talent and they could afford to take the hit, especially if they have a good year on the field and we’re only talking about something in the mid-to-late teens.
But if you’re going to spend draft picks on a player, why not have a crack at someone with arguably just as much talent, but younger, and able to have a longer career at your club?
More specifically, why not go for Ollie Wines?
Wines isn’t a free agent and if Essendon can convince him to come to the club, they’d have to pay up big at the draft table. Possibly two years of first-round picks big, or a first and a second at the minimum.
But for a player of his quality, only just now ready to come into his prime, and one that fits their specific needs so incredibly well, isn’t that worth it?
If you want a contested ball beast, Ollie ‘Quadzilla’ Wines is Plato’s perfect form of the contested ball beast. To say he’s built like a brick shithouse is not superlative enough. Brick shithouses dream of being built like Ollie Wines.
And we already know Essendon are keen. Wines was one of two players that Adrian Dodoro cheekily asked the Power about during the Paddy Ryder trade saga in 2014 (the other being Chad Wingard).
Wines has been earmarked as a future Port Adelaide captain probably since his stellar debut in Round 1, when he had 24 disposals, six inside 50s and two goal-assists in a 79-point win over Melbourne that kicked off the Ken Hinkley era in style.
However, being talented and Victorian but playing elsewhere, there has always been some talk about him returning to his home state.
Last time he was out of contract, in 2016, he re-signed early. However, last week Wines described himself as being “not comfortable signing at the moment”, suggesting it may be a longer process this time around.
Now, before you accuse me of this all being idle speculation, let may say: this absolutely, 100 per cent is all idle speculation.
And if I had to come down on either side of the debate, as things currently lie I’d say both Sloane and Wines are more likely to stay with their current clubs than move.
But Essendon are ready to be very, very good, and they know it. And while they brought in some serious talent over the offseason, they would still have enough salary cap room to go hard at filling that one big gap still left on their list.
Rory Sloane and Ollie Wines both fit the bill. Watch this space.