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Blue Diamond Stakes preview and betting strategy

Roar Guru
23rd February, 2018
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The 2017 Blue Diamond Stakes has a huge field (Image: Joe Castro/AAP)
Roar Guru
23rd February, 2018
0

The Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) is the premier two-year-old race in Melbourne and one of the best on the calendar for the Autumn Carnival.

It’s a stallion-making race as we have seen in history with some outstanding colts winning this race before going on to have successful careers at stud, including Reward For Effort, Star Witness and Sepoy.

It can be a tough race to sort out so here is my take on the on the feature at Caulfield.

Speed
Looks to be good pace across the board here. Ennis Hill and Grand Symphony have both drawn well so they won’t be far away. Thanks to wide gates, I think Encyrption and Enbihaar both have to roll forward and chance their arm.

Long Leaf and Plague Stone won’t be too far away I suspect. If Prairie Fire jumps like he has in both career outings, he will be in a very nasty spot from that inside draw. Oohood likely gets three wide cover from her okay draw.

History
Since 2000, the colts and geldings have been the more dominant force in the race, with the fillies winning just seven times, but since 2010 they have won four times, the latest being of course Catchy last year.

Barriers one through to five are the most successful. Last 35 years, 18 winners have come from the first five gates, but interestingly enough, barrier 15 has won on three occasions in that time. Also worth nothing that in the last ten years, the winner has finished either first or second at their previous start.

Who can’t win?
It’s one of those races where it’s very even and hard to really put a line through any. I think the draw makes it very tough for Written By, as is the case for Encryption, Native Soldier, Enbihaar and Lady Horseowner.

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Ollivander was disappointing last time out, Grand Symphony looks outclassed. Same can be said for Crossing The Abbey.

The A-Grade chances
I’ve got a nice all-in bet on Plague Stone at $26 so here’s hoping. He’s one of the top chances, alongside Long Leaf and Prairie Fire. I think they are the top three to beat and though wouldn’t be surprised if something else won, I’ll be banking on this trio fighting out the finish.

Next tier
The one at stupid odds is Run Naan, who I thought was good in the Prelude. Kinky Boom was dynamic on debut and her late splits matched up well with Cliff’s Edge on the same day. Big ask for Qafila to win first up, but I reckon she is going really well and stable shouldn’t be underestimated. Oohood a clear threat too, but has an awful racing pattern.

The verdict
Long Leaf Hasn’t raced since resuming in the preview where he was given a sweet ride by Olly off a hot speed and finished best to score under relatively hands and heels in the straight.

He races as if the 1200m will be no issue and he brings fresh legs. I think Prairie Fire is right in this.

The win last Saturday was outstanding and he won as he pleased out wide, clocking some fast splits late. The big query is how far back does he get. Any further back than four horses the rail, he’s in trouble.

If he is three pairs on the rail or closer, he’s right in the game. Plague Stone sat four wide no cover throughout before McEvoy made his move before the turn to edge closer and the horse ran some outstanding splits. Had every right to drop out but only went down narrowly.

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I think with cover, and provided that resumption hasn’t busted him, he’s the one to beat.

$100 betting strategy
$30 Win Long Leaf
$30 Win Prairie Fire
$40 Win Plague Stone

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