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On the backstretch of the eight-week season (seven games plus the grand final), it’s time to look at the “ELO-Following Football” ratings for the eight teams in the second-year AFLW.
For the uninitiated, “Following Football” is our exclusive system for analyzing the performance of teams in the hope of predicting future results.
The team ratings are based on a version of the ELO system originally formulated for chess players, which is a zero-sum proposition – the team which performs above expectations (not necessarily the one that wins) adds points onto its rating, the same number which their opponent subtracts from its rating.
Thus, if team A is favoured by 20, but only defeats team B by three, then it is team B that gains points, and team A that loses the same number of points, despite having won. If team A won that same game by the same 20-point margin they were expected to win by, neither team gains or loses rating points, because ostensibly their ratings are already accurate.
Enough detail for now? Good! Here are this week’s games:
Friday, February 23: Carlton Blues at Western Bulldogs
Carlton (2-1, 111.1%, fourth place) – current ELO-FF rating: 49.7; started season at 50.9.
Western (2-1, 131.8%, third place) – current rating: 54.2, started season at 50.8.
CrownBet says Bulldogs by 5.5; ELO-FF says Dogs by 8.5 (4.5 plus four points for home field advantage.). My pick: Bulldogs by eight.
Carlton’s last three games are at Adelaide, Melbourne, and at Fremantle. It’s possible the Blues have already won their last game of the season.
Meanwhile, Footscray goes to Collingwood and GWS next before hosting Melbourne at Whitten Oval, likely for a grand final spot.
Saturday, February 24: Fremantle Dockers at Brisbane Lions
Fremantle (2-1, 92.5%, fifth place) – current ELO-FF rating: 43.7; started season at 40.7.
Brisbane (2-1, 135.7%, first place) – current rating: 58.1; started season at 54.7.
CrownBet says Lions by 8.5; ELO-FF says Lions by 18.4. My pick: Lions by 12.
Fremantle hosts the Giants next week, goes to Adelaide, and hosts Carlton. They have a puncher’s chance at the title game but must upset Brisbane at home this week.
(Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images)
Brisbane’s game at Melbourne next week is their key – a win there almost guarantees a finals berth, with Collingwood and GWS their final two games.
Saturday, February 24: Collingwood Magpies at Melbourne Demons (in Alice Springs)
Collingwood (0-3, 69.1%, eighth place) – current ELO-FF rating: 42.0; started season at 47.3.
Melbourne (2-1, 133.3%, second place) – current rating: 57.4; started season at 58.6.
CrownBet says Demons by 11.5; ELO-FF says Demons by 17.4. My pick: Demons by 14.
Collingwood’s staring down the barrel of a 0-7 season, with its final three games against Western, Brisbane, and Adelaide. But Melbourne has three winnable/losable games in front of them: hosting Brisbane, at Carlton, and at the Bulldogs.
They might win all three; they could lose all three.
Sunday, February 25: Adelaide Crows at GWS Giants
Adelaide (1-2, 69.4%, seventh place) – current ELO-FF rating: 54.6; started season at 60.7.
GWS (1-2, 87.3%, sixth place) – current rating: 40.3; started season at 36.3.
CrownBet says Crows by 4.5; ELO-FF says Crows by 10.3, My pick: Crows by 12.
This is an elimination game, as three losses won’t make for a viable finalist candidate. In theory, if the Giants win here, they could win at Fremantle, and then win at home against the Doggies and Lions. All difficult but possible.
In contrast, an Erin Phillips-led Adelaide team has the easiest remaining schedule in the league: home against Carlton and Freo, and closing at Collingwood. And 5-2 could very well mean an opportunity to defend their title on March 24.
In addition to the team ratings, we also track all the various players of the year, of the game, of the week, of the you-name-it; we combine them to get a meta-ranking for the AFLW Player Of The Season.
Not that it’s much proof of concept because she was the obvious choice, but our meta-ranking also had Erin Phillips as the player of the year in 2017.
(Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)
This season, we’re getting evaluations from the Roar, afl.com.au, the AFLWCA, GPF, Leesa Catto, the AFLW itself and other sources, and combining the information into one big tally sheet.
Currently, here’s the meta-standings after three weeks:
Daisy Pearce (ME) – 77
Chloe Molloy (CO) – 69
Emma Kearney (WB) – 68
Chelsea Randall (AD) – 66
Brianna Davey (CA) – 60
Courtney Gum (GW) – 55
Kate Lutkins (BR) – 51
Dana Hooker (FR) and Elise O’Dea (WB) – 50
Phoebe McWilliams (GW) – 48
Incredibly, all eight teams are represented in the top eight (plus ties), which could indicate an even spread of top talent across the board, or an even ladder with five teams tied atop the leaderboard, or perhaps just dumb luck.
But just to warn the women on the top of this chart: in the tie for 11th at 46 points, just off this chart, is Erin Phillips of Adelaide…who just played her first game last weekend, while almost everyone else has three games under their belts.
Davey didn’t play last week. It’s possible that the ladies ahead of her are simply holding her place at the head of the line for her late arrival!
Looking ahead, it’s seeming like the week seven game between the Bulldogs and Melbourne could be between two 5-1 teams for the top seed, while Adelaide and Brisbane are both looking like they’re going to be about 5-2 at season’s end.
Those four teams are most likely to be fighting for the two finals spots, and isn’t it a shame we don’t have at least one more spot in a preliminary final or something for some good team that will be left out?
Those were also the four teams which the pundits’ combined meta-prediction expected to land in the top-four spots (Melbourne first, followed by Adelaide, Brisbane, and the Bulldogs).
Meanwhile, the Dockers could have three, maybe four losses; the Blues might have five, and the Giants will be somewhere in that 3-5 loss range as well. Only Collingwood looks hopeless: ironic since they’re the ones with a really good Hope.
And when the men’s season comes around, “Following Football” will be there, too.
Without showing our cards too early, it’s safe to tell you that at the end of the 2017 season, the three teams which had separated themselves from the pack in their ELO-Following Football ratings were Sydney, Adelaide, and the 2017 title winning Richmond Tigers, and those are the pre-season faves moving forward.
With the shuffling of players in the off-season, we’ll have to see how the teams look on an oval before posting this season’s expectations. Meanwhile, we’ll be collecting all the forecasts we can find to provide you with the AFL meta-prediction for 2018 before the first bounce on March 22.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.