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Futurity Stakes preview and betting strategy

Roar Guru
23rd February, 2018
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Caulfield. What a place. (AAPImage/George Salpigtidis)
Roar Guru
23rd February, 2018
0

The Futurity Stakes (1400m) is the third of the Group 1 events at Caulfield on Saturday and while it’s not that ideally placed when it comes to attracting the best horses, it’s still always a high quality event.

That’s evidenced by the recent honour roll, with names like Reset, Fields Of Omagh and Typhoon Tracy.

It looks a quality edition in 2018 so here is my preview.

Speed
Well it’s all about Lord Of The Sky here. Surprisingly bungled the start in the CF Orr before hunting forward. If he jumps cleanly, he should lead for absolute fun. The three year old Showtime should come over and sit outside and that pair control things.

Mighty Boss could potentially get the box seat, Tosen Stardom won’t be far off and Humidor has a nice gate so he could sit handy.

History
It’s been a very good race for favourites in recent history. Since 2000, 11 favourites have won the race and only four have failed to miss a place. It’s also a race where winning form is vital.

Since the turn of the century, there have been 13 winners of the Futurity that have been last start winners. Barrier seven has been the most successful gate the last 30 years with six wins, while barriers one, six and ten have won the race on five occasions in that time.

Who can’t win?
Nice horse, but Mr Sneaky isn’t a WFA contender. Likewise Wyndspelle and Snitzson. I’m happy to also put the line through Shillelagh. Just think she’ll get too far back from the draw.

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A-grade chances
Tosen Stardom did a remarkable job to finish as close as he did in the CF Orr. Brave Smash was luckless, like most. Lord of The Sky, if he jumps, gets the soft lead so he’s right in the game and the big watch for me is Humidor.

If he is anywhere near right to go, he blows them away and wins comfortably for mine.

Next tier
Sovereign Nation is near the rank outsider in betting but he has been quite good at the trials/jump outs and a forward showing wouldn’t surprise. Mighty Boss nearly fell in the CF Orr and did a great job to pick up. Showtime has that Trapeze Artist form, which looks gold for mine, and has map favours.

The verdict
Brave Smash looks an obvious choice. Flat resumption in the Australia Stakes before going to the CF Orr where he was one of many hard luck stories in the race. Definitively, would he have won the race? If you looked at his run in isolation, yes, but there were a host of unlucky efforts.

But third up at 1400m, he looks set to rock and roll. Humidor is the big watch here. High class animal that resumes for Darren Weir after a mixed prep, where the highlight was clearly that narrow second to Winx in the Cox Plate, looking the winner for a few strides. He then went on to the Melbourne Cup and by that stage, he probably had enough.

Been given that extra time off and a recent jump out was very good to the eye. Sovereign Nation looks crazy odds to my eye. He is a quality animal first up for the Hayes/Dabernig team after a pretty solid Spring, where he ran well in the Toorak and Cantala before racing like a tired horse in the Railway.

Wodonga trial looked slick to the eye and he is a noted first up performer.

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$100 betting strategy
Happy to have $40 win, $60 place on Humidor – I’m gambling he’s somewhere near ready.

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