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Australia face a daunting task against South Africa when their Test series starts on Thursday, but the Proteas may be more vulnerable than expected due to three major injury concerns and having their confidence rocked by India.
Champion quick Dale Steyn is expected to miss the first two Tests with a heel injury, while skipper Faf du Plessis and middle-order batsman Temba Bavuma are in doubt for the first Test due to broken fingers.
Meanwhile, the Proteas were humiliated by India on their home turf this past month, losing seven of their last nine matches in an unprecedented run of defeats against a visiting Asian team.
While the home side beat India 2-1 in the Test series that preceded these limited-overs matches, the Proteas lost the last Test of that series and have since been beaten in six out of eight white-ball matches.
India bossed their hosts across those ODI and T20 fixtures, with their spinners running amok and captain Virat Kohli destroying the bowlers he faced.
Virat Kohli (AP Photo/Rui Vieira)
Test cricket is a vastly different format, quite obviously, but momentum can flow from one format into another, whether positive or negative. We saw that the last time Australia and South Africa clashed in Tests, just over a year ago.
Australia entered that home series under pressure, after being flogged 5-0 in the preceding 50-over series in South Africa – Australia’s worst-ever result in an ODI series. The Aussies will be hoping the Proteas feel similar heat due to their capitulation against India in recent weeks.
A major factor in that run of losses has been an awful luck with injuries. Not only have Steyn and Du Plessis missed all or most of those matches, but the Proteas have also at times been without superstar batsman AB de Villiers and gun wicketkeeper-batsman Quentin de Kock.
Both De Villiers and De Kock have missed the past few matches in an effort to be fit to face Australia on Thursday in Durban. It seems likely that pair will play in that match, but the hosts will be without Steyn and probably at least one of Du Plessis and Bavuma.
The unavailability of Steyn is a great disappointment for cricket fans, given the phenomenal battles he has had with Australia over the past decade. With 70 wickets at 27, no quick in world cricket has caused the Aussies more trouble in that time.
Cricket needs Dale Steyn back. (AFP PHOTO / ALEXANDER JOE)
Yet losing Du Plessis for the series opener would be an even bigger blow to South Africa. They are well placed to cover for the absence of Steyn thanks to their incredible pace depth, which I wrote about recently.
But their batting stocks are not nearly as deep as their pace stocks, meaning Du Plessis would leave a gaping hole in their top six, while also depriving them of his impressive leadership and on-field tactics. The skipper loves playing against Australia, having piled up 713 runs at a touch below 60 in eight Tests against them.
Among that haul have been several innings of extreme importance. Most famously, he made 78 and 110* on debut at Adelaide in 2012, saving the Test for his side with an eight-hour masterpiece in their second innings.
In the next Test, at Perth, Du Plessis’ knock of 78* rescued his side from 6-75 on Day 1. In his most recent match against Australia, he compiled a wonderful 118* in a total of 259 on a juicy Adelaide deck in the day-night Test.
South Africa’s middle order is already weakened at present due to the major form slump of De Kock, who has averaged just 14 in his past eight Tests, so they can ill afford to be without Du Plessis.
His absence would also make it harder for the Proteas to find the right balance to play five bowlers, the strategy they used in all three Tests against India.